Analysis and forecasting trends in the growth of the number of population of countries and regions of the world

Abstract

The article focuses on the study of number and characteristics of the population by individual countries and regions of the world. The main international bodies and organizations that deal with the size and structure of the population of countries and regions of the world are given. The general dynamics, growth rates and projected trends of population change in the main regions of the world and in Ukraine for the period 1950–2100 were analyzed. Estimates and forecasts that were used for analysis in the article cover a 150-year time horizon that can be divided into past assessments (1950–2015) and forecasts for the future (2016–2100). The article also presents the methodology of the United Nations concerning the grouping of countries and territories of the world by geographical features in six continental regions: Africa; Asia; Europe; Latin America and the Caribbean; North America and Oceania. According to this methodology, the countries and territories that are part of Europe have been identified and used for further research.

For the purpose of further comparative analysis, the population of Ukraine and Europe was predicted for the medium-term period. For forecasting, Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA), or the “Caterpillar” method in the domestic literature, was applied. The calculations were made using the program“Caterpillar”. To justify the chosen method, the original time series were shortened by 7 years in order to be able to calculate the forecast error on the basis of this data. To determine the measure of accuracy of the obtained forecast, the statistical estimation of MAРE was used. Based on the results of the study, a comparative analysis of the results of the forecasting was made with the official long-term projections of the Population Division of the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs and conclusions were drawn.