THE EXPERIENCE OF AZERBAIJAN (1991–2026): LESSONS FOR UKRAINE

Abstract

The article analyzes the experience of Azerbaijan (1991–2026) and, on this basis, formulates lessons for contemporary Ukraine.

The Azerbaijani experience is of particular interest to Ukraine not only because the political processes of this post-Soviet country are partially similar to Ukraine’s own transformation process, but above all because Azerbaijan is one of the few states that initially lost a war and parts of its territory, yet later managed to consolidate internally and define the key principles of its foreign and domestic policy. These principles enabled the country to regain its lost territories and successfully reintegrate them. At present, Azerbaijan is transforming its historical adversary, Armenia, into – if not an ally – at least a partner.

The following features of the Aliyev regime in Azerbaijan are examined: strict consolidation of power; clear institutional coordination and the depoliticization of the security sector; a focus on the effective development of the national economy, which over time made it possible to create a modern military-industrial complex and a combat-capable army; the rapid integration of veterans into society; and, in foreign policy, an emphasis on strategic rapprochement with Turkey as a regional “center of power”, while preserving the successful elements of a multi-vector foreign policy. The article provides a detailed analysis of which of the above-mentioned elements, and to what extent, can be applied in Ukraine. It is noted that it is necessary to take into account not only the advantages but also the shortcomings of Azerbaijan’s specific wartime and post-war experience.

It is concluded that the experience of Azerbaijan cannot be mechanically transferred to Ukrainian realities. However, it makes it possible to identify a number of important lessons, including: the importance of properly formulated reconstruction and development strategies, as well as the high significance of consistent long-term – and in some cases even multi-decade – efforts aimed at their implementation; the necessity of institutional consolidation; the importance of an effective national economy and proper management of available resources; the use of memory policy as an instrument for consolidating society; and the cautious and skillful application of the principles of a multi-vector foreign policy while avoiding critical dependence on any contemporary “centers of power”.

In the context of the current full-scale war between Ukraine and the Russian Federation, the future post-war transformation, and the possibility of a new escalation of the confrontation, these lessons may serve as a foundation for shaping a more resilient and effective model of Ukraine’s state development.