MISPERCEPTION AS A CATALYST FOR CONFLICT: ANALYZING U.S.-CHINA RELATIONS THROUGH THE LENS OF ROBERT JERVIS' THEORIES
Abstract
The contribution of one of the leading scholars in international relations, Robert Jervis, to the understanding of security mechanisms, signaling, and distorted relations between states is analyzed. The study examines how misinterpretations of intentions, the escalation of distrust, and incorrect interpretations of signals can become the driving force behind the intensification of confrontation. Despite the significant influence of Jervis's ideas, their potential in contemporary analysis of international politics remains underutilized, making his approaches especially valuable for studying current crisis situations. The mutual perception between the United States and China, which plays a crucial role in shaping the dynamics of their relations, is identified. Jervis's «spiral model» is used to explain the assessment of threats in the context of increasing tension. The value of Jervis's model for describing the behavior of states, which, driven by fear and distrust, begin to overestimate the hostility of others while considering their own actions justified and defensive, is clarified.
Analyzing recent events in relations between the two states, the study discusses how both sides operate within contradictory logics: simultaneously perceiving the other as a potential threat while expecting their own peaceful intentions to be properly understood. Robert Jervis's concept of the «security dilemma» is considered a key tool for explaining mutual distrust between major geopolitical players in an anarchic international system, where the absence of a higher authority means that one state's actions aimed at strengthening its own security can be perceived by others as a threat. The ideas underpinning this concept are explained. Practical recommendations are provided on how the psychological aspects of decision-making in international politics, which Jervis extensively researched in his works, can be applied to address practical problems in international politics.
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