CONSEQUENCES OF IRAN’S WITHDRAWAL FROM THE NUCLEAR DEAL FOR EURO-ATLANTIC SECURITY

Keywords: Iran’s nuclear program, uranium enrichment, nuclear weapons, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, Euro-Atlantic security

Abstract

The circumstances of Iran’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal or the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which was signed between Iran and the six great powers in 2015, were considered. It is indicated that the US withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018 and US economic sanctions against Iran were the main reasons for Tehran’s phased withdrawal from the nuclear deal. It was noted that the assassinations of two well-known Iranian figures at the beginning and at the end of 2020 – General Qasem Soleimani and nuclear physicist Mohsen Fakhrizadeh provoked Iran to completely abandon the provisions of the JCPOA and to radicalize its nuclear policy.

The implications of Iran’s gradual withdrawal from the nuclear deal for the security of Euro-Atlantic structures are analyzed. It has been proven that the risks associated with the development of the Iranian nuclear program were relatively insignificant during 2019. However, these risks began to increase in 2020 and especially at the beginning of 2021. The circumstances of Iran’s decision on possible increasing the uranium enrichment level to 20% and on the probable limiting the access to Iranian nuclear facilities for international inspectors were considered. It is analyzed whether such a decision of Iran can bring this country closer to obtaining nuclear weapons. It is concluded that, most likely, despite the technical capabilities, Iran will not make a political decision to produce an atomic bomb in the near future to avoid its complete isolation. Therefore, the potential nuclear conflict with Iran does not yet threaten to Euro-Atlantic security.

Differences in attitudes towards the Iranian nuclear program between the United States and its European NATO allies during Donald Trump’s presidency are traced. The prospects for a change in the American position toward Iran during Joseph Biden’s presidency are assessed. The article analyzes the difficulties that the United States and its allies may face in the course of negotiations with Iran during the presidency of J. Biden. It is indicated that the influential conservative elements in Iran may delay Iran’s return to the nuclear deal in order to bargain for better conditions. It is concluded that the United States and its allies should respond to possible Iranian provocations by economic sanctions rather than by forceful actions, which could lead to an escalation that is dangerous for the Euro-Atlantic security.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biography

О. Я. Чебан, Odessa Center for Nonproliferation, French Boulevard, 24/26, Odessa, 65082, Ukraine

PhD in Political Science, Research Fellow.

References

ЛІТЕРАТУРА

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Vienna, 14 July 2015.

URL:https://www.europarl.europa.eu/cmsdata/122460/full-text-of-the-iran-nuclear-deal.pdf

Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015). Report by the Director General. IAEA Board of Governors. GOV/INF/2020/16. 17 November 2020. URL: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/20/11/govinf2020-16.pdf

Geranmayeh, E. 2020. Reviving the revolu-tionaries: How Trump’s maximum pressure is shifting Iran’s domestic politics. Brussels: European Council on Foreign Relations.

State of play of EU-Iran relations and the future of the JCPOA. 2020. European Parliament. DOI: 10.2861/292104

Sinovets, P., Gergieva, V. 2019. “The EU and the Iranian Nuclear Programme: Is Venus Weaker Than Mars?” UA: Ukraine Analytica 4 (18): 14-20.

Iran nuclear deal: Trump announces US withdrawal. 2018. BBC News. URL: https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-44044350

Nuclear Posture Review. 2018. Office of the Secretary of Defense. URL: https://media.defense.gov/2018/feb/02/2001872886/-1/-1/1/2018-nuclear-posture-review-final-report.pdf

Pompeo, M.R. “Secretary of State. After the Deal: A New Iran Strategy. Speech”, 2018. U.S. Department of State. URL: https://www.state.gov/after-the-deal-a-new-iran-strategy/

Дунаева, Е. В., Мамедова, Н. М., Сажин, В. И. 2019. “Год после выхода США из ядерной сделки (новые риски для Ирана)”, Восточная аналитика 1: 76-90.

Shugerman, Е. 2017. “EU condemns Donald Trump’s decision to decertify Iran nuclear deal”, Independent. URL: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/iran-nuclear-deal-trump-eu-federica-mogherini-netanyahu-israel-a7999556.html

Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015). Report by the Director General. IAEA Board of Governors. GOV/2019/21. 31 May 2019. URL: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/19/06/gov2019-21.pdf

INSTEX: Europe sets up transactions channel with Iran. 2019. Deutche Welle. URL: https://www.dw.com/en/instex-europe-sets-up-transactions-channel-with-iran/a-47303580

EU-Iran Instex trade channel remains pipe dream. 2020. Deutche Welle. URL: https://www.dw.com/en/eu-iran-instex-trade-channel-remains-pipe-dream/a-52168576

Wintour, P. 2019. “Iran announces partial withdrawal from nuclear deal”, The Guardian. URL: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/07/iran-to-announces-partial-withdrawal-from-nuclear-deal

Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231. (2015). Report by the Director General. IAEA Board of Governors. GOV/INF/2019/8. 1 July 2019. URL: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/19/07/govinf2019-8.pdf

Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015). Report by the Director General. IAEA Board of Governors. GOV/2019/32. 30 August 2019. URL: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/19/09/gov2019-32.pdf

Qasem Soleimani: US kills top Iranian general in Baghdad air strike. 2020. BBC News. URL: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50979463

Safi, M., Holmes, O., Abdul-Ahad, G. 2020. “Iran launches missiles at Iraq airbases hosting US and coalition troops”, The Guardian. URL: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/08/suleimani-assassination-two-us-airbases-in-iraq-hit-by-missiles-in-retaliation

Haltiwanger, J. 2020. “Iran is withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal after Trump ordered deadly strike on its top general”, Business Insider. URL: https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-fully-withdrawing-2015-nuclear-deal-amid-tensions-with-us-2020-1

Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015). Report by the Director General. ІАЕА Board of Governors. GOV/2020/51. 11 November 2020. URL: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/20/11/gov2020-51.pdf

Murphy, F. 2020. “Explainer: How close is Iran to producing a nuclear bomb?” Reuters. URL: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-explainer/explainer-how-close-is-iran-to-producing-a-nuclear-bomb-idUSKBN2880NU

Trump 'asked for options on strike on Iran nuclear site'. 2020. BBC News. URL: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54972269

Saikal, A. 2020. “Is Trump trigger-happy towards Iran?” The Australian Strategic Policy Institute. URL: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/is-trump-trigger-happy-towards-iran/

Сажин, B. 2020. “Взорвутся ли «мины», уложенные Трампом на пути Байдена к Ирану?” Международная жизнь. URL: https://interaffairs.ru/news/show/28370

Iran Parl. approves outlines of strategic action plan to counter sanctions. 2020. Islamic Consultative Assembly News Agency. URL: https://www.icana.ir/En/News/461843/Iran-Parl-approves-outlines-of-strategic-action-plan-to-counter-sanctions

Iran nuclear crisis: Law aims to boost enrichment and block inspectors. 2020. BBC News. URL: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55168112

Fitzpatrick, М. 2020. “Assassinating a scientist to kill the Iran deal”, The International Institute for Strategic Studies. URL: https://www.iiss.org/blogs/survival-blog/2020/ 11/assassinating-a-scientist-to-kill-the-iran-deal

Iran nuclear deal: Why do the limits on uranium enrichment matter? 2020. BBC News. URL: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48776695

Davenport, Kelsey, Kimball, Daryl G., Thielmann, Greg. 2013.“Cliff Notes on the May 2013 IAEA Report on Iran”, Arms Control Today. URL: https://www.armscontrol.org/blog/2013-05-22/cliff-notes-may-2013-iaea-report-iran

Abueish, T. 2021. “Iran is capable of increasing uranium enrichment to 60 pct: Spokesman”, Al Arabiya English. URL: https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/ 2021/01/06/Iran-nuclear-deal-Iran-capable-of-increasing-uranium-enrichment-to-60-pct-Spokesman

Davidovich, J. 2013. “New report says Iran can have nuclear bomb in a month”, Times of Israel. URL: https://www.timesofisrael.com/new-report-says-iran-can-have-nuclear-bomb-in-a-month/

Eisenstadt, M., Khalaji, M. 2011. Nuclear Fatwa. Religion and Politics in Iran’s Proliferation Strategy. Washington, DC: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Davenport, K. 2020. “Biden Victory May Save Iran Nuclear Deal”, Arms Control Today. URL: https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2020-12/news/ biden-victory-may-save-iran-nuclear-deal

Iran vows no nuclear concessions. 2008. BBC News. URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7520854.stm

Fisher, M. 2010. “Why Russia and China Joined on Iran Sanctions”, The Atlantic. URL: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2010/05/why-russia-and-china-joined-on-iran-sanctions/ 56905/

Ядерная программа Ирана и интересы России. Обзор новостей. 2020. ПИР-Центр. URL: http://www.pircenter.org/pages/1156-2761062

Joe Biden: There's a smarter way to be tough on Iran. 2020. СNN News. URL: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html

Iran’s Rouhani says return to nuclear deal ‘just needs a signature’. 2020. Middle East Eye. URL: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-rouhani-nuclear-deal-return-signature

REFERENCES

Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. Vienna, 14 July 2015. URL: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/cmsdata/122460/full-text-of-the-iran-nuclear-deal.pdf

Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015). Report by the Director General. IAEA Board of Governors. GOV/INF/2020/16. 17 November 2020. URL: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/20/11/govinf2020-16.pdf

Geranmayeh, E. 2020. Reviving the revolutionaries: How Trump’s maximum pressure is shifting Iran’s domestic politics. Brussels: European Council on Foreign Relations.

State of play of EU-Iran relations and the future of the JCPOA. 2020. European Parliament. DOI: 10.2861/292104

Sinovets, P., Gergieva, V. 2019. “The EU and the Iranian Nuclear Programme: Is Venus Weaker Than Mars?” UA: Ukraine Analytica 4 (18): 14 – 20.

Iran nuclear deal: Trump announces US withdrawal. 2018. BBC News. URL: https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-us-canada-44044350

Nuclear Posture Review. 2018. Office of the Secretary of Defense. URL: https://media.defense.gov/2018/feb/02/2001872886/-1/-1/1/2018-nuclear-posture-review-final-report.pdf

Pompeo, M.R. “Secretary of State. After the Deal: A New Iran Strategy. Speech”, 2018. U.S. Department of State. URL: https://www.state.gov/after-the-deal-a-new-iran-strategy/

Dunaeva, Е.V., Маmedovа, N. М., Sazhin, V. I. 2019. “A year after US withdrawal from the nuclear deal (the new risks for Iran)”, Eastern analytics 1: 76-90 (in Russian).

Shugerman, Е. 2017. “EU condemns Donald Trump’s decision to decertify Iran nuclear deal”, Independent. URL: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/politics/iran-nuclear-deal-trump-eu-federica-mogherini-netanyahu-israel-a7999556.html

Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015). Report by the Director General. IAEA Board of Governors. GOV/2019/21. 31 May 2019. URL: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/19/06/gov2019-21.pdf

INSTEX: Europe sets up transactions channel with Iran. 2019. Deutche Welle. URL: https://www.dw.com/en/instex-europe-sets-up-transactions-channel-with-iran/a-47303580

EU-Iran Instex trade channel remains pipe dream. 2020. Deutche Welle. URL: https://www.dw.com/en/eu-iran-instex-trade-channel-remains-pipe-dream/a-52168576

Wintour, P. 2019. “Iran announces partial withdrawal from nuclear deal”, The Guardian. URL: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/07/iran-to-announces-partial-withdrawal-from-nuclear-deal

Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015). Report by the Director General. IAEA Board of Governors. GOV/INF/2019/8. 1 July 2019. URL: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/19/07/govinf2019-8.pdf

Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015). Report by the Director General. IAEA Board of Governors. GOV/2019/32. 30 August 2019. URL: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/19/09/gov2019-32.pdf

Qasem Soleimani: US kills top Iranian general in Baghdad air strike. 2020. BBC News. URL: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-50979463

Safi, M., Holmes, O., Abdul-Ahad, G. 2020. “Iran launches missiles at Iraq airbases hosting US and coalition troops”, The Guardian. URL: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/08/suleimani-assassination-two-us-airbases-in-iraq-hit-by-missiles-in-retaliation

Haltiwanger, J. 2020. “Iran is withdrawing from the 2015 nuclear deal after Trump ordered deadly strike on its top general”, Business Insider. URL: https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-fully-withdrawing-2015-nuclear-deal-amid-tensions-with-us-2020-1

Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015). Report by the Director General. ІАЕА Board of Governors. GOV/2020/51. 11 November 2020. URL: https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/20/11/gov2020-51.pdf

Murphy, F. 2020. “Explainer: How close is Iran to producing a nuclear bomb?” Reuters. URL: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-nuclear-explainer/explainer-how-close-is-iran-to-producing-a-nuclear-bomb-idUSKBN2880NU

Trump 'asked for options on strike on Iran nuclear site'. 2020. BBC News. URL: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-54972269

Saikal, A. 2020. “Is Trump trigger-happy towards Iran?” The Australian Strategic Policy Institute. URL: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/is-trump-trigger-happy-towards-iran/

Sazhin, V. 2020. “Will the ‘bombs’ explode that were put by Trump on Biden’s way to Iran?”, International Affairs. URL: https://interaffairs.ru/news/show/28370 (in Russian).

Iran Parl. approves outlines of strategic action plan to counter sanctions. 2020. Islamic Consultative Assembly News Agency. URL: https://www.icana.ir/En/News/461843/Iran-Parl-approves-outlines-of-strategic-action-plan-to-counter-sanctions

Iran nuclear crisis: Law aims to boost enrichment and block inspectors. 2020. BBC News. URL: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-55168112

Fitzpatrick, М. 2020. “Assassinating a scientist to kill the Iran deal”, The International Institute for Strategic Studies. URL: https://www.iiss.org/blogs/survival-blog/2020/11/ assassinating-a-scientist-to-kill-the-iran-deal

Iran nuclear deal: Why do the limits on uranium enrichment matter? 2020. BBC News. URL: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-4877 6695

Davenport, Kelsey, Kimball, Daryl G., Thielmann, Greg. 2013.“Cliff Notes on the May 2013 IAEA Report on Iran”, Arms Control Today. URL: https://www.armscontrol.org/blog/2013-05-22/cliff-notes-may-2013-iaea-report-iran

Abueish, T. 2021. “Iran is capable of increasing uranium enrichment to 60 pct: Spokesman”, Al Arabiya English. URL: https://english.alarabiya.net/en/News/middle-east/ 2021/01/06/Iran-nuclear-deal-Iran-capable-of-increasing-uranium-enrichment-to-60-pct-Spokesman

Davidovich, J. 2013. “New report says Iran can have nuclear bomb in a month”, Times of Israel. URL: https://www.timesofisrael.com/new-report-says-iran-can-have-nuclear-bomb-in-a-month/

Eisenstadt, M., Khalaji, M. 2011. Nuclear Fatwa. Religion and Politics in Iran’s Proliferation Strategy. Washington, DC: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Davenport, K. 2020. “Biden Victory May Save Iran Nuclear Deal”, Arms Control Today. URL: https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2020-12/news/biden-victory-may-save-iran-nuclear-deal

Iran vows no nuclear concessions. 2008. BBC News. URL: http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/7520854.stm

Fisher, M. 2010. “Why Russia and China Joined on Iran Sanctions”, The Atlantic. URL: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2010/05/why-russia-and-china-joined-on-iran-sanctions/ 56905/

Iran’s nuclear program and Russian interests. News Review. 2020. PIR Center. URL: http://www.pircenter.org/pages/1156-2761062 (in Russian).

Joe Biden: There's a smarter way to be tough on Iran. 2020. СNN News. URL: https://edition.cnn.com/2020/09/13/opinions/smarter-way-to-be-tough-on-iran-joe-biden/index.html

Iran’s Rouhani says return to nuclear deal ‘just needs a signature’. 2020. Middle East Eye. URL: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/iran-rouhani-nuclear-deal-return-signature.

Published
2021-03-05
How to Cite
Чебан, О. Я. (2021). CONSEQUENCES OF IRAN’S WITHDRAWAL FROM THE NUCLEAR DEAL FOR EURO-ATLANTIC SECURITY. The Journal of V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University. Issues of Political Science, 38, 72-82. https://doi.org/10.26565/2220-8089-2020-38-09
Section
FOREIGN POLICY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS