Forecasting economic indicators using the LSTM model

Abstract

Relevance. Forecasting economic indicators, particularly oil prices, is critically important for various industries such as energy, finance, manufacturing, transportation, and government policy. Accurate forecasts facilitate informed decision-making and resource optimization. In conditions of high oil price volatility, traditional forecasting methods like ARIMA often do not provide sufficient accuracy, making the use of modern methods such as LSTM necessary.

Objective. The objective of the study is to develop a model for forecasting Brent crude oil prices using the LSTM model and to compare its accuracy with traditional methods, including ARIMA.

Research methods. Two main time series forecasting methods, ARIMA and LSTM, were used in this study. Exploratory data analysis, data preparation, model building, model tuning, and evaluation using MSE, MAE, and RMSE metrics were conducted. Brent crude oil price data was processed and normalized before being fed into the models.

Results. The LSTM model demonstrated significantly higher forecasting accuracy compared to ARIMA. The metrics for LSTM (MSE = 0.003, MAE = 0.055, RMSE = 0.055) significantly outperform the corresponding values for ARIMA (MSE = 12.59, MAE = 2.84, RMSE = 3.55). LSTM better handles nonlinear dependencies and data volatility, making it an optimal choice for long-term forecasting.

Conclusions. The use of LSTM for forecasting economic indicators, particularly oil prices, is more effective compared to traditional methods. The model demonstrates the ability to accurately model complex dependencies and adapt to market volatility, making it a reliable tool for forecasting in modern conditions.