Транснаціональний погляд на розвиток реального сектору економіки в країнах Субсахарської Африки
Анотація
Стабільне зростання реального сектору економіки є важливою передумовою забезпечення економічного розвитку. Водночас проблема стимулювання розвитку реального сектору залишається актуальною для багатьох країн Субсахарської Африки (SSA). Незважаючи на наявність значної кількості досліджень, присвячених впливу міжнародної торгівлі на розвиток реального сектору, лише незначна їх частина враховує роль соціальних показників у формуванні його результативності. У цьому дослідженні проаналізовано вплив міжнародної торгівлі та соціальних показників на розвиток реального сектору економіки у 24 країнах Субсахарської Африки за період 1990–2023 років. Для оцінювання використано метод панельного аналізу із застосуванням скоригованих стандартних похибок (Panel Corrected Standard Errors, PCSE). Результати дослідження свідчать, що експорт продукції обробної промисловості, імпорт сільськогосподарської сировини, рівень грамотності дорослого населення та доступ до електроенергії мають статистично значущий позитивний вплив на валовий внутрішній продукт обробної промисловості (MGDP). Водночас індекс ефективності державного управління демонструє статистично значущий негативний вплив на MGDP, тоді як індекс якості регулювання має позитивний, але статистично незначущий вплив. Щодо валового внутрішнього продукту сільського господарства (AGDP), встановлено, що експорт сільськогосподарської продукції та рівень охоплення населення середньою освітою позитивно і статистично значуще впливають на його зростання. Натомість індекс політичної стабільності та рівень урбанізації чинять статистично значущий негативний вплив. Імпорт сільськогосподарської техніки має позитивний, але статистично незначущий вплив на AGDP, тоді як рівень упровадження технологій характеризується негативним і статистично незначущим впливом. Зроблено висновок, що міжнародна торгівля та соціальні показники є важливими детермінантами розвитку реального сектору економіки країн Субсахарської Африки. Для підвищення ефективності функціонування реального сектору в досліджуваних країнах рекомендовано стимулювати експорт, розширювати можливості здобуття освіти та професійного розвитку населення, а також покращувати доступ до електроенергії.
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