Winter and spring long-term dynamic of air temperature in Central Ukraine
Abstract
This study aimed to analyze data from meteorological stations in central Ukraine that have the longest observation period and to search for patterns in the dynamics of temperature indicators over the past 140-200 years.
Data and methods. To characterize the climate of central Ukraine, we analyzed the average monthly and average annual temperatures of Uman, Kropyvnytskyi, and Poltava, which have the longest continuous or almost continuous periods of observation. Based on these data, we have constructed graphs of changes in the average annual and average monthly temperatures for the winter and spring seasons. To analyze the dynamics of temperature indicators, we built linear and 11-year moving averages.
The results. The analysis of meteorological data from weather stations in central Ukraine over the entire period of observation showed the following: average annual temperatures increased from 1.4 degrees in Kropyvnytskyi, 1.6 degrees in Uman to 2.5 degrees (since 1886 - 2.2 degrees) in Poltava. The highest average annual air temperatures at all weather stations were recorded in 2020 and 2021.
The largest temperature increase occurred in the winter months. Over the entire observation period, the average monthly temperature in December increased by 2.0 degrees in Kropyvnytskyi, 2.3 degrees in Uman, and 3.6 degrees in Poltava (3.3 degrees since 1886). The average monthly temperature in January increased from 2.4 degrees in Uman and Kropyvnytskyi to 4.9 degrees (3.5 degrees since 1886) in Poltava. The average monthly temperature in February increased from 2.2 degrees in Kropyvnytskyi, 3.4 degrees in Uman to 4.1 degrees (since 1886 - 2.9 degrees) in Poltava. All three weather stations have common periods of rising and falling temperatures, with an increase in the average monthly temperature in the winter months from 1987-1989 to 2022.
The air temperature in the spring months also increased significantly. Over the entire observation period, the average monthly temperature in March increased from 2.3 degrees in Kropyvnytskyi, 3.0 degrees in Uman to 3.6 degrees (since 1886 - 3.5 degrees) in Poltava. The average monthly temperature in April increased from 2.1 degrees in Kropyvnytskyi, 2.4 degrees in Uman to 4.2 degrees (since 1886 - 3.4 degrees) in Poltava. The average monthly temperature in May increased from 0.5 degrees in Uman and Kropyvnytskyi to 2.9 degrees (since 1886 - 1.3 degrees) in Poltava. All three weather stations have common periods of rising and falling temperatures, with a slight increase in average monthly spring temperatures from 1988-1990 to 2022.
Analyzing the graphs of 11-year moving averages, one can notice the presence of periods of increase and decrease in average monthly temperatures lasting about 33 years or doubled periods lasting about 66 years.
Scientific novelty. For the first time, the data of weather stations in central Ukraine for the entire period of observation (138 years – Uman, 148 years – Kropyvnytskyi, 198 years – Poltava) were analyzed and regularities in the dynamic of temperature indicators were determined.
The practical significance lies in the possibility of using the researchers results to predict future climate change.
Downloads
References
Vorovka, V., Marchenko, O., Gryschko, S., & Yatsentiuk, Y. (2022). Dynamics of climate characteristics Melitopol city as a component of global changes. Ecological Sciences, 45(6), 105–109. https://doi.org/10.32846/2306-9716/2022.eco.6-45.17 [in Ukrainian].
Helevera, O.F. (2019). Long-term dynamics of climatic indicators according to the data of the Kropyvnytskyi weather station. Scientific Bulletin of Kherson State University. Series Geographical Sciences, (10), 107–113. https://doi.org/10.32999/ksu2413-7391/2019-10-15 [in Ukrainian].
Osadchyi, V.I., Babichenko, V.M., Nabyvanets, Y.B., & Skrynnyk, O.Y. (2013) Dynamics of air temperature in Ukraine for the period of instrumental meteorological observations. Kyiv: Nika-Center Publishing House [in Ukrainian].
Zakliuchnyj zvit za rezul'tatamy NDR “Provedennia prostorovoi otsinky stupenia spryiatlyvosti majbutnikh klimatychnykh umov dlia produktyvnosti osnovnykh zernovykh kul'tur ta lisovykh nasadzhen'”. Available at: http://dvs.net.ua/agro/index_ua.shtml (Accessed 08.09.2014) [in Ukrainian]
Krakovska, S.V., Bilozerova, A.K., & Palamarchuk, L.V. (2015). Projections of regional climatic characteristics in the XXI century based on modeling data (on the example of Odesa region). Physical geography and geomorphology. 2(78), 132. ISSN 0868-6939. [in Ukrainian]
Osadchyi, V.I., & Babichenko, V.M. (2013). Air temperature on the territory of Ukraine in modern climate conditions. Ukrainian Geographical Journal, (4), 32-39. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15407/ugz2013.04.032. [in Ukrainian]
Pyasetska Svitlana, Shcheglov Oleksandr (2023). The modern nature of changes in the average monthly air temperature during 2006-2020. Visnyk of V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, series "Geology. Geography. Ecology", (58), 217-230. DOI: https://doi.org/10.26565/2410-7360-2023-58-17 [in Ukrainian]
Bednar-Friedl, B., R. Biesbroek, D.N. Schmidt, P. Alexander, K.Y. Børsheim, J. Carnicer, E. Georgopoulou, M. Haasnoot, G. Le Cozannet, P. Lionello, O. Lipka, C. Möllmann, V. Muccione, T. Mustonen, D. Piepenburg, & L. Whitmarsh, (2022): Europe. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 1817–1927, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844.015
Borovska, H. & Khokhlov, V. (2023) Climate data for Odesa, Ukraine in 2021–2050 based on EURO-CORDEX simulations. Geoscience Data Journal, 00, 1–12. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/gdj3.197
Boychenko, S., Voloshchuk, V., Movchan, Y., Serdjuchenko, N., Tkachenko V., Tyshchenko, O., & Savchenko S. (2016). Features of Climate Change on Ukraine: Scenarios, Consequences for Nature and Agroecosystems. Proceedings of the National aviation university, (4), 96–113. Available from http://nbuv.gov.ua/UJRN/Vnau_2016_4_14 DOI: https://doi.org/10.18372/2306-1472.69.11061
Briffa K. R. (2000). Annual Climate Variability in the Holocene: Interpreting the Message oj Ancient. Trees, Quaternary. Sci. Rev. 19, 87-105. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S0277-3791(99)00056-6
European Seasonal and Annual Temperature Variability, Trends, and Extremes Since (2004). 1500 Jürg Luterbacher, Daniel Dietrich, Elena Xoplaki, Martin Grosjean, Heinz Wanner. Authors Info & Affiliations. Science, 303, 5663, 1499-1503. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1093877
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2023). Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment. In Climate Change 2021 – The Physical Science Basis: Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (1767-1926). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.014
IPCC (2022): Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 3056, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844
IPCC (2023): Sections. In: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 35-115, DOI: https://doi.org/10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647
Jones, P. D., Briffa, K. R., & Osborn, T. J. (2003). Changes in the Northern Hemisphere annual cycle: Implications for paleoclimatology? J. Geophys. Res., 108(D18), 4588, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2003JD003695.
Kundzewicz, Z. W., & Parry, M. L. (2001). in Climate Change 2001: Impacts. Adaptation, and Vulnerability, J. J. McCarthy et a., Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, New York, 2001), 641-692.
Lee, J.-Y., Marotzke, J., Bala, G., Cao, L., Corti, S., Dunne, J.P., Engelbrecht, F., Fischer, E., Fyfe, J.C., Jones, C., Maycock, A., Mutemi, J., Ndiaye, O., Panickal, S. & Zhou T. (2021): Future Global Climate: Scenario-Based Projections and Near-Term Information. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.006
Mann, M.E., E.A. Lloyd, & Oreskes, N. (2017): Assessing climate change impacts on extreme weather events: the case for an alternative (Bayesian) approach. Climatic Change, 144(2), 131–142, DOI:10.1007/s10584-017-2048-3.
Jucker Martin, Lucas Chris, & Dutta Deepashree (2023). Long-term surface impact of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai-like stratospheric water vapor injection. ESS Open Archive. August 04. DOI: https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.169111653.36341315/v1
Osadchyi, V., Skrynyk, O. A., Radchenko, R., Skrynyk, O. Y. (2018). Homogenization of Ukrainian air temperature time series. Int. J. Climatol. (38), 497-505. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5191
Reshetchenko, S.I., Dmitriiev, S.S., Cherkashyna, N.I., Goncharova, L.D. (2020) Climate indicators of changes in hydrological characteristics (a case of the Psyol river basin. Visnyk of V.N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, series "Geology. Geography. Ecology", (53), 155-166, DOI: https://doi.org/10.26565/2410-7360-2020-53-12
Zamfirova, M. S., Khokhlov, V. M. (2020). Air temperature and precipitation regime in Ukraine in 2021-2050 by CORDEX model ensemble. Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Journal. (25), 17-27. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31481/uhmj.25.2020.02
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
