Summer and Autumn Long-term Dynamic of Air Temperature in Central Ukraine
Abstract
Formulation of the problem. This is the second part of a trilogy dedicated to the analysis of climate indicators in central Ukraine over the entire period of instrumental observations, which analyzes air temperature data from the weather stations of Uman, Kropyvnytskyi, and Poltava. This work addresses issues related to the 13th Sustainable Development Goal, which is to combat climate change and strengthen resilience and adaptation to climate-related hazards and disasters in all countries.
The purpose of this study was to analyze data from weather stations in central Ukraine that have the longest period of observation and to find patterns in the dynamics of temperature indicators over the past 140-200 years.
Data and methods. To characterize the climate of central Ukraine, we analyzed the average monthly and average annual temperatures of Uman, Kropyvnytskyi, and Poltava, which have the longest continuous or almost continuous period of observation. Based on these data, we have constructed graphs of changes in the average annual and average monthly temperatures for the winter and spring seasons. To analyze the dynamics of temperature indicators, we constructed linear and 11-year moving trends.
Results. At all weather stations, there is a trend towards an increase in both average annual air temperatures and temperatures for certain months. In particular, in Uman, the average annual temperature over the entire observation period (138 years) has increased from +6.80C to +8.60C, i.e. by 1.8 degrees. In Kropyvnytskyi, average annual temperatures over 149 years increased from +7.40C to +8.90C, i.e. by 1.5 degrees. In Poltava, the average annual temperature over 199 years has increased from +5.90C to +8.70C, i.e. by 2.8 degrees (since 1886 from +6.40C to +8.70C, i.e. by 2.3 degrees). At all weather stations, the most significant increase in average annual temperatures occurred between 1989 and 2023. Temperatures in the autumn months increased the least. Over the entire observation period, average monthly temperatures in September/October/November increased from 0.3/0.1/0.10C in Uman, 0.6/0.1/1.80C in Kropyvnytskyi to 1.5/1.2/1.90C (since 1886 – 0.9/0.9/1.70C) in Poltava. All three meteorological stations have common periods of temperature increases and decreases, in particular, a decrease in average monthly summer temperatures occurred from 1947-1969 to 1985-1995; from 1986-1996 to 2023, an increase in air temperature. Air temperatures in the summer months have increased quite significantly. Over the entire period of observation, the average monthly temperature in June/July/August increased from 0.9/0.3/0.70C in Kropyvnytskyi, 1.9/1.3/1.60C (since 1886 – 1.3/1.2/1.40C) in Poltava to 2.0/1.1/1.10C in Uman. The greatest increase in average monthly autumn temperatures occurred from 1999-2001 to 2023. Analyzing the graphs of 11-year moving averages, one can see the presence of periods of increase and decrease in average monthly temperatures lasting about 33 years or doubled periods lasting about 66 years.
Scientific novelty. For the first time, the data of meteorological stations in central Ukraine for the entire period of observation (138 years – Uman, 149 years – Kropyvnytskyi, 199 years – Poltava) were analyzed and regularities in the dynamics of temperature indicators were determined.
The practical significance lies in the possibility of using the results of the study to predict future climate change.
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