Use of simulation modeling to identify urgent crisis management measures on enterprises

Abstract

In order to identify urgent measures of crisis management, which characterize the immediate (urgent) actions to eliminate or reduce the negative impact of crisis on the economic condition of the enterprise and ensure its further effective development, the article uses the method of simulation (provides numerical calculations for statistical samples according to a pre-formed mathematical model designed to estimate the probabilistic characteristics of the studied quantities). The procedure of simulation is developed using a mathematical model to determine the resulting indicator - the term of implementation of measures to implement urgent tools of crisis management of enterprises, which is tested in the process of implementing a series of numerical experiments. This allows for statistical and probabilistic analysis, which involves the calculation of: the average value; standard deviation; coefficient of variation; the obtained maximum and minimum values of the resulting indicator; the number of cases of using urgent measures of crisis management of enterprises; the total value of the resulting indicator (duration of implementation of measures to implement urgent tools of crisis management of enterprises); duration of implementation of crisis management measures of enterprises that cannot be classified as urgent; the probability of using urgent measures of crisis management of enterprises. Practical application of simulation modeling at industrial enterprises of the Western region of Ukraine allowed to establish the minimum and maximum term of introduction of anti-crisis management tools, number of cases (from 1 to 22) and probability of using urgent tools of anti-crisis management of enterprises, ranging from 0,8 to 22,8% etc.