The dynamics of export-import interaction

DOI: https://doi.org/10.26565/2310-9513-2021-13-06
Keywords: dynamic model, stability theory, bifurcation, difference equation

Abstract

This work is devoted to the dynamic interpretation of the basic provisions of the quantitative theory of money. Namely, the construction of models of price changes for marketable products in the performance of export-import activities both in discrete and continuous time. A number of hypotheses are used to determine the conditions for the violation of the equilibrium states of the trade balance using the classical macroeconomic Fisher equation. An overview of scientific works is presented, which highlights the main factors for the implementation of foreign economic activity: exchange rates and devaluation. The analysis of the considered sources testifies to the presence of the problem of stability of the observed dynamic processes in the vicinity of the state of equilibrium, which have the traditional name of the Marshall-Lerner condition. A detailed study of the stability criteria of a discrete dynamic model with quadratic nonlinearity demonstrates a significant variety of trajectories of the studied process. These are, in particular, increasing or decreasing aperiodic behavior, oscillating processes of a fixed period, bifurcations of doubling the period and chaotic trajectories. The limits of distribution of various types of evolutionary changes in terms of elasticities as important indicators of export-import operations are indicated. For models of pricing dynamics in continuous time, a detailed analysis of the structural instability of equilibrium states was performed. Saddle-nodal bifurcation and no less important Andronov-Hopf bifurcation, which is associated with the formation of a boundary cycle around the equilibrium state, are distinguished. It is proved that the found cycle is unique and stable. For a discrete model of price formation, appropriate calculations are performed to demonstrate different types of evolutionary behavior. The given discrete model based on the Fisher equation can be used for qualitative forecasting (by trajectories) of the dynamics of internal pricing without the use of traditional methodology of econometric analysis of time series. This model is characterized by the fact that it is reduced to a single complex parameter and this greatly simplifies the definition of the corresponding types of dynamical regimes in the vicinity of equilibrium states.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

/

References

Published
2021-06-29
Cited
How to Cite
Anatoliy Voronin, & Elina Zhelezniakova. (2021). The dynamics of export-import interaction. The Journal of V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University. Series: International Relations. Economics. Country Studies. Tourism, (13), 60-69. https://doi.org/10.26565/2310-9513-2021-13-06
Issue
No. 13 (2021): The Journal of V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University. Series "International Relations. Economics. Country Studies. Tourism"
Section
Economy

Authors submitting publications for this edition agree to the following terms:

  • The authors retain the copyright to their publications and grant the journal “The Journal of V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University. Series: International Relations. Economics. Country Studies. Tourism” for the right of first publication.
  • Submission and acceptance of a publication to the journal means that the authors grant the journal a non-exclusive license to publish, distribute, and archive the material in print and electronic form and to include it in international abstracting and bibliographic databases.
  • Authors may:
  • deposit the published version of their work in institutional or disciplinary repositories,
  • distribute it on personal or professional web pages,
  • use the material for educational or research purposes,

provided that:

  • the publication is not altered,
  • it is not used for commercial purposes,
  • a complete bibliographic reference for the publication in the journal is provided.

 Authors' Responsibility

  • The authors guarantee that the submitted publication is an original work and does not infringe on the copyrights or intellectual property of third parties.
  • The authors confirm that this manuscript has not been published previously and is not under consideration by another publisher.
  • If the publication uses materials (figures, tables, data, etc.) belonging to third parties, the authors are responsible for obtaining the necessary permissions and for correctly citing the sources.

Publisher's Responsibility

  • This publication ensures a transparent and ethical publication process, as well as open access to all materials in accordance with the terms of the CC BY 4.0 license.
  • The publication guarantees long-term digital preservation of content by archiving it in internal and external repositories.

Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:

  1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication of this work under the terms of a license Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
  2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
  3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.