The Influence of Climate Change on Oat Productivity in the Steppe Zone of Ukraine
Abstract
Purpose. To assess the impact of climate change on oat productivity in the steppe zone of Ukraine.
Methods. Statistical, mathematical modeling.
Results. It is established that the seed sowing and of seedling emergence will be postponed to an earlier date. More favorable conditions are expected for the formation of seedling emergence, growth and development of plants during the period of "seedling - heading". Reduced background temperature will lead to a decrease in the value of total evaporation and a decrease in moisture demand by 47–58 mm. The moisture content of the first vegetation period will be significantly higher than in the middle perennial years. Agroclimatic conditions of the second half of the vegetation period of oats will develop at low temperatures and uneven moisture across the territory. The demand for moisture will increase everywhere by 12–28 mm. The supply of moisture will decrease. Using the model of the formation of the yield of agricultural crops, the influence of changes in the agro-climatic conditions of the growing season on the indicators of photosynthetic productivity of oat crops and the formation of the yield was assessed.
Conclusions. It was concluded that a possible increase in the yield of oats in the Steppe zone of Ukraine under the implementation of climatic scenarios and early sowing terms. Changes in agroclimatic conditions in the implementation of climatic scenarios will lead to changes in the photosynthetic activity of oat crops: the relative leaf area will increase, the increase in total plant mass will increase, the photosynthetic potential of crops will grow during the growing season. Proposed cartographic schemes of the expected yield of oats in the Steppe zone of Ukraine.
Downloads
References
Peltonen-Sainio, Jauhiainen, L., Hakala, K. & Ojanen, H. (2009). Climate change and prolongation of growing season: changes in regional potential for field crop production in Finland. Agricultural and Food Science, 18, 171–190. Retrieved from https://journal.fi/afs/article/view/5948
Mohammadreza Mohammadi, John Finnan, Chris Baker & Mark Sterling. (2020). The Potential Impact of Climate Change on Oat Lodging in the UK and Republic of Ireland. Advances in Meteorology. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1155/2020/4138469
Olesen, J.E., Børgesen, C.D., Elsgaard, L., Palosuo, T., Rötter, R.P., Skjelvåg, A.O., Peltonen-Sainio, P., Börjesson, T., Trnka, M., Ewert, F. & Siebert, S. (2012). Changes in time of sowing, sowering and maturity of cereals in Europe under climate change. Food Additives Contaminants, Part A, 29(10), 1527-1542. Retrieved from https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/19440049.2012.712060
Katherine Klink, Jochum J. Wiersma, Christopher J. Crawford, Deon D. Stuthman. (2013). Impacts of temperature and precipitation variability in the Northern Plains of the United States and Canada on the productivity of spring barley and oat. International Journal of Climatilogy. Retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3877
Stepanenko, S.M. & Polevoy, A.M. (2011). Assessment of the flow of climatic changes on the galuzy of the economy of Ukraine. Odessa: " Ecology " Retrieved from
http://odeku.edu.ua/wp-content/uploads/otsinka-vplyvu-klimatichnih-zmin-close.pdf (in Ukranian).
Stepanenko, S.M. & Polevoy, A.M. (2018). Climatic risks of functioning of branches of economy of Ukraine in the conditions of climate change: monograph. Odessa: "TEC" (in Ukranian). Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/337656542_Klimaticni_riziki_funkcionuvanna_galuzej_ekonomiki_Ukraini_v_umovah_zmini_klimatu
Adamenko, T.I., Kulbida, M.I. & Prokopenko, A.L. (2019). Agroclimatic assistant on the territory of Ukraine. Zhytomyr: "Polisya" (In Ukrainian).
Polevoy, A.N. & Kulbida, N.I. (2001). Modeling the formation of winter wheat yield during the spring-summer growing season in Ukraine. Meteorology, climatology and hydrology., 43, 127-135. (in Russian).
Menzhulin, G.V. (1986). Methods for calculating photosynthesis of plant communities with sufficient moisture. Proceedings of MGO, (229), 81-103. (in Russian).
Ross, J.K. & Bihele, Z.N. (1968). Calculation of plant cover photosynthesis. In: Photosynthesis and productivity of plant cover. (pp. 46-74). Tartu: ИФА АН ЭССР. (in Russian).
Polevoy, A.N. (1988). Applied modeling and forecasting of crop productivity. L.: Hydrometeoizdat (in Russian).
McCree, K. J. (1970). Anequation for the rate of respiration of white clover plants growth under controlled condition. In: Prediction and measurement of photosynthetic productivity. (pp.221-22).Wageningen, Pudoc.
Curry, R. B. (1971). Dynamic simulation of plant growth. 1.Development of a model. Trans. ASAE, 14(5), 946-959. Retrieved from https://elibrary.asabe.org/abstract.asp??JID=3&AID=38428&CID=t1971&v=14&i=5&T=1
Ilina, A.O. (2020). Morphological features of shoot formation of sowing oats (Avena Sativa) in the conditions of the South of Ukraine. Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Journal, (25), 60-74. Retrieved from http://eprints.library.odeku.edu.ua/7172/1/uhmj_25_2020_74.pdf (In Ukrainian).
Peltonen‐Sainio, P., Jauhiainen, L. & Hakala, K. (2011). Crop responses to temperature and precipitation according to long‐term multi‐location trials at high‐latitude conditions. J. Agric. Sci, 148, 49–62. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/231928517_Crop_responses_to_temperature_and_precipitation_according_to_long-term_multi-location_trials_at_high-latitude_conditions
Marcinkowski, P. & Piniewski, M. (2018). Effect of climate change on sowing and harvest dates of spring barley and maize in Poland. International Agrophys, 32(2), 265–271. Retrieved from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/324751900_Effect_of_climate_change_on_sowing_and_harvest_dates_of_spring_barley_and_maize_in_Poland
Sułek, A., (2009). Influence of sowing and harvest date on grain yield and protein content in grain of spring wheat cv. Nawra. Fragm. Agron., 26(2), 138-14. (in Polish).
Schelling, K., Born, K., Weissteiner, C. & Kühbauch W. (2003). Relationships between yield and quality parameters of malting barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) and phenological and meteorological data. J. Agron. Crop Sci., 189, 113–122. Retrieved from https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1046/j.1439-037X.2003.00011.x
Lanning, S.P., Kephart, K., Carlson, G.R., Eckhoff ,J.E., Stougaard, R.N., Wichman, D.M., Martin, J.M. & Talbert L.E. (2010). Climatic change and agronomic performance of hard red spring wheat from 1950 to 2007. Crop. Sci., 50, 835-841. Retrieved from https://acsess.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.2135/cropsci2009.06.0314
Authors reserve the right of attribution for the submitted manuscript, while transferring to the Journal the right to publish the article under the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). This license allows free distribution of the published work under the condition of proper attribution of the original authors and the initial publication source (i.e. the Journal)
Authors have the right to enter into separate agreements for additional non-exclusive distribution of the work in the form it was published in the Journal (such as publishing the article on the institutional website or as a part of a monograph), provided the original publication in this Journal is properly referenced
The Journal allows and encourages online publication of the manuscripts (such as on personal web pages), even when such a manuscript is still under editorial consideration, since it allows for a productive scientific discussion and better citation dynamics (see The Effect of Open Access).
