Climate drivers of Drosophila suzukii (Matsumura) spread and phytosanitary risk forecast for berry production in Lviv region
Abstract
Purpose. To assess the impact of climate change on the dynamics of spread of the invasive pest Drosophila suzukii (Matsumura, 1931) in Lviv region and to forecast phytosanitary risk for berry production up to 2030-2035.
Methods. Analysis of meteorological trends using data from Lviv meteorological station (2001–2023); calculation of degree-day sums (SAT/SET); IPCC RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario-based projection; linear extrapolation of generation number; calculation of potential economic losses for major berry crops.
Results. Over 2001–2023, the sum of active temperatures increased by 270 degree-days (p < 0.05), and the number of days with temperatures below –7 °C decreased twofold. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, conditions for 4–5 generations of D. suzukii per year will form by 2030–2035. Under RCP8.5, up to 5–6 generations are projected. Potential economic losses for berry production in Lviv Oblast are estimated at 284–339 million UAH/year (RCP4.5) and 310–380 million UAH/year (RCP8.5).
Conclusions. Results justify the establishment of a regional phytosanitary monitoring system with attractive trap networks, mandatory inclusion of D. suzukii in Ukraine's quarantine organism list, mandatory planting material certification, and harmonization of Ukrainian phytosanitary standards with EU Regulation 2016/2031.
Downloads
References
Essl, F., Dullä, S., Dawson, W. et al. (2011). Socioeconomic legacy yields an invasion debt. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108(1), 203-207. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1011728108
Bebber, D.P., Ramotowski, M.A.T., & Gurr, S.J. (2013). Crop pests and pathogens move polewards in a warming world. Nature Climate Change, 3(11), 985-988. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1990
Walsh, D.B., Bolda, M.P., Goodhue, R.E. et al. (2011). Drosophila suzukii (Diptera: Drosophilidae): invasive pest of ripening soft fruit. Journal of Integrated Pest Management, 2(1), G1-G7. https://doi.org/10.1603/IPM10010
Lavrinienko, A., Kesäniemi, J., Watts, P.C. et al. (2017). First record of the invasive pest Drosophila suzukii in Ukraine. Journal of Pest Science, 90(2), 421-429. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10340-016-0810-3
State Statistics Service of Ukraine (2023). Plant industry of Ukraine: statistical collection. Kyiv: Derzhstat, Retrieved from https://www.ukrstat.gov.ua (In Ukrainian)
Asplen, M.K., Anfora, G., Biondi, A. et al. (2015). Invasion biology of spotted wing Drosophila (Drosophila suzukii): a global perspective. Journal of Pest Science, 88(3), 469-494. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10340-015-0681-z
IPCC (2021). Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896
Kinjo, H., Kunimi, Y., & Nakai, M. (2014). Effects of temperature on the reproduction and development of Drosophila suzukii. Applied Entomology and Zoology, 49, 297-304. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13355-014-0244-6
Bolda, M., Goodhue, R.E., & Zalom, F.G. (2010). Spotted Wing Drosophila: Potential Economic Impact of a Newly Established Pest. Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics. 13(3), 5-8. Retrieved from https://s.giannini.ucop.edu/uploads/giannini_public/81/fe/81feb5c9-f722-4018-85ec-64519d1bbc95/v13n3_2.pdf
Langille, A.B., Arteca, E.M., & Newman, J.A. (2017). The impacts of climate change on the abundance and distribution of the spotted wing drosophila. PLOS ONE, 12(3), e0173582. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0173582
Tait, G., Grassi, A., Pfab, F. et al. (2018). Large-scale spatio-temporal patterns of Drosophila suzukii infestation in apple orchards. Journal of Pest Science, 91(2), 683-697. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10340-017-0912-z
Law of Ukraine "On Phytosanitary Measures in Plant Production" No. 3984-XII of 30.06.1993. Retrieved from https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/3984-12 (In Ukrainian)
Cini, A., Ioriatti, C., & Anfora, G. (2012). A review of the invasion of Drosophila suzukii in Europe. Bulletin of Insectology, 65, 149-160.
Mota-Sanchez, D., & Wise, J.C. (2023). Arthropod Pesticide Resistance Database. Michigan State University. Retrieved from https://www.pesticideresistance.org
Shearer, P.W., West, J.D., Walton, V.M. et al. (2016). Seasonal cues induce phenotypic plasticity of Drosophila suzukii. BMC Ecology, 16, 11. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12898-016-0070-3
Copyright (c) 2026 Kovalchuk, O. I., Kovalchuk, Yu. O., & Stiurko, M. O.
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors reserve the right of attribution for the submitted manuscript, while transferring to the Journal the right to publish the article under the Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0). This license allows free distribution of the published work under the condition of proper attribution of the original authors and the initial publication source (i.e. the Journal)
Authors have the right to enter into separate agreements for additional non-exclusive distribution of the work in the form it was published in the Journal (such as publishing the article on the institutional website or as a part of a monograph), provided the original publication in this Journal is properly referenced
The Journal allows and encourages online publication of the manuscripts (such as on personal web pages), even when such a manuscript is still under editorial consideration, since it allows for a productive scientific discussion and better citation dynamics (see The Effect of Open Access).
