Перспективи розвитку туризму в умовах водної кризи (на прикладі Ірану)
Анотація
Іран – це країна, яка страждає не тільки від нестачі води, але і втрачає все більшу кількість доступних водних ресурсів. З іншого боку, ті, хто приймає рішення, затвердили подвійний план у 2004 та 2015 роках. Так званий 20-річний перспективний план туризму в Ірані (20YPIT) та шостий план розвитку (SDP) мають намір реєструвати до 2025 року 20 мільйонів туристів. Дослідження ставить за мету оцінити та обчислити кількість води, яку потребують туристи, якщо і плани 20YPIT, і SDP досягнуть успіху щодо трьох сценаріїв, для того, щоб відповісти на два наступні питання: 1 – Яку кількість води потребуватиме туристичний сектор? 2 – Який обсяг води сектор побутових комунальних послуг поділиться з туристичним сектором до 2025 року? Для відповіді на ці питання були використані статистичні методи, вивчення документів та інтерв'ю з експертами в рамках Delphi щодо систематичного методу вибірки. Проаналізовано обсяги споживання води в різних секторах економіки в світі, в Ірані, особливості впливу туризму на навколишнє середовище, розкрита проблема нестачі води в туристичній галузі. Зроблено прогноз кількості іноземних і внутрішніх туристів в Ірані за період 2016-2025 рр., спрогнозовані обсяги споживання води в туристичній сфері за трьома сценаріями: водокористування стабільно і однаково з місцевими жителями; водокористування вдвічі більше, ніж у місцевих жителів; використання води паралельно з темпами зростання світового попиту, які складають 4-8% в рік. Результати показують потенційну загрозу, якщо прогнози вірні, значна частина доступною чистої води на побутовій ділянці буде спрямована на туризм (від 19,5 до 69%). Перший сценарій визначений як оптимальний, другий варіант як кризовий, а третій – то, що розглядається. Визначено середню кількість води, необхідну для туристичного сектора з урахуванням неврахованої води, розроблено концептуальну модель наслідків незапланованого управління водними ресурсами в туризмі Ірану у 2016-2025 рр.
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