MODELING THE FINANCIAL PROVISION OF AGRICULTURAL ENTERPRISES IN THE POST-WAR DEVELOPMENT SYSTEM: ASSESSMENT OF FINANCIAL IMMUNITY AND ADAPTIVE CAPITALIZATION
Abstract
The purpose of the article is to substantiate the methodological toolkit and construct a predictive model for the financial provision of agricultural enterprises within the post-war development system, based on the author's indicators of financial immunity and adaptive capitalization. The phenomenon of financial endurance of agricultural entities is analyzed through the prism of military and economic destabilization. It is established that classical analytical tools lose relevance under "war shock" conditions, necessitating the search for new determinants to evaluate resource potential. The model for diagnosing the financial state of enterprises has been improved, built on the principles of stress testing and the assessment of capital "exhaustion points." A system of indicators forming the enterprise's "financial immunity passport" is proposed: the Financial Immunity Index (FI), which determines the loss absorption threshold without halting the investment cycle, and the Adaptive Capitalization Coefficient (Kac), which for the first time treats state support not as financial donation but as a synergetic catalyst for internal growth. The high reliability of the research results is argued through a two-stage verification procedure: the initial hypothesis of high financial elasticity of resources (developed using the author's model based on 2022–2023 trends) was confirmed and refined at the second stage in accordance with the findings of the Independent Auditor's Report (Crowe Global) for 2024. It is proved that the identified excess of actual recapitalization rates over the initial model calculations by 6.7 times demonstrated the enterprise's extraordinary capacity for self-development and confirmed the adequacy of the proposed analytical framework. The methodological approach to the strategic positioning of enterprises within a resilience matrix has been expanded, allowing for the transformation of the business's financial structure into a high-tech system capable of independent operation. It is substantiated that the target state of "strategic growth" (forecasted through 2026) is ensured by forming a breakthrough surplus of free capital, which is 1.7 times higher than the regulatory requirements for modernization.
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