SOME ASPECTS OF THE ANALYSIS OF CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS IN THE ECONOMY (IN THE CASE OF THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC CRISIS)

Abstract

The global economy is characterized by cyclical fluctuations, often leading to periods of economic crises. The COVID-19 pandemic, which began in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, has caused a significant economic downturn, exacerbating pre-existing vulnerabilities and intro­ducing new challenges. This paper delves into the intricate dynamics of these cyclical fluctuations, focusing on the recent pandemic crisis and its profound impacts on global economies. It examines the underlying causes and manifestations of economic crises, drawing on historical data and theo­retical frameworks from renowned economists such as J.M. Keynes, G. Soros, and contemporary researchers.

The study employs a systematic methodology encompassing comparative analysis, statistical observation, and scientific abstraction to dissect the causes and effects of the pandemic-induced crisis. The research categorizes crisis causes into natural, fundamental, instrumental, and behav­ioral groups, attributing the COVID-19 crisis primarily to natural causes. The analysis reveals that, before the onset of the pandemic, the global economy was already teetering on the brink of a crisis due to factors such as sharp economic fluctuations, declining gross demand, rising external debt, and the intensification of trade wars.

The paper further explores the chronology of economic crises from the 19th century to the present, highlighting the recurrent nature of these downturns and their varied triggers. Historical crises such as the Great Depression, the 1997 Asian financial crisis, and the 2008 global financial crisis are analyzed to draw parallels and contrasts with the current situation. The study emphasizes the role of pre-crisis conditions and the exacerbating effects of the pandemic, noting that crises often result from a confluence of multiple stressors rather than a single cause.

Results from the analysis indicate that the economic policies implemented by major economies such as the United States, European countries, and China during the pandemic have had mixed outcomes. While measures like quantitative easing and fiscal stimuli have provided temporary relief, they have also led to significant imbalances, such as the ballooning of public debt and the overreli­ance on monetary policy tools. The study highlights the differential impact of the crisis on various sectors, with tourism, transportation, and energy investments being particularly hard-hit, while digital technologies and remote working solutions have seen accelerated growth.

The paper concludes with a set of policy recommendations aimed at mitigating the adverse effects of the pandemic and fostering economic recovery. Key suggestions include expanding digiti­zation, maintaining strict public health measures, gradually resuming economic activities with ap­propriate safety protocols, and fostering international cooperation to ensure a coordinated response to the crisis. The study underscores the importance of learning from past crises and adapting poli­cies to address the unique challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic, ultimately aiming for a more resilient and inclusive global economic recovery.