Еffect of unemployment and inflation on Nigerian economic growth: a time-series analysis
Abstract
This study investigates the effect of unemployment and inflation on economic growth in Nigeria from 1999 to 2021. Employing econometric techniques such as descriptive statistics, trend analysis, and regression analysis, the study explores the relationships between these variables. Findings reveal a significant positive correlation between inflation and GDP growth, while unemployment exhibits a negative correlation with GDP growth. The analysis explains approximately 54.1% of the variance in GDP growth, highlighting the substantial influence of unemployment and inflation on economic performance. Policy recommendations include measures to control inflation, stimulate job creation, and diversify the economy. By addressing these factors, Nigeria can foster sustainable and inclusive economic growth.
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Rabail, A., Ahmad, T., Emil, E., Narmatha, R. Impact of inflation on economic growth: A case study of Pakistan. Global Journal of Management and Business Research: B Economics and Commerce. 2017. № 17(4). Р. 23–35.
Rivera, J. P. R., Tullao, T. S. Jr. Investigating the link between remittances and inflation: Evidence from the Philippines. Southern Southeast Asia Research. 2020. № 28(3). Р. 301–326.
Adaramola, A. O., & Dada, O. (2020). Impact of inflation on economic growth: Evidence from Nigeria. Investment Management and Financial Innovations, 17(2), 1–13.
Ali, A., & Zulfqar, K. (2018). An assessment of association between natural resources agglomeration and unemployment in Pakistan.
Aliyu, S. U. R., & Elijah, A. O. (2017). Corruption and economic growth in Nigeria: 1986–2007.
Alrayes, S. E., & Wadi, R. M. A. (2018). Determinants of unemployment in Bahrain. International Journal of Business and Social Science, 9(12), 64–74.
Anidiobu, O. A., Okolie, P. O., & Oleka, S. I. (2018). Inflation and Nigeria's economic growth: A time series analysis (1986–2015). Journal of Economics and Sustainable Development, 9(8), 89–96.
Aydin, C. (2017). The inflation-growth nexus: A dynamic panel threshold analysis for D-8 countries. Romanian Journal of Economic Forecasting, 20(4), 134–151.
Azeng, T. F., & Yogo, T. U. (2013). Youth unemployment and political instability in selected developing countries. African Development Bank, Tunis, Tunisia.
Babalola, Y. T., Danladi, J. D., Akomolafe, K. J., & Ajiboye, B. O. (2015). Empirical analysis of the impact of inflation and interest rate on economic growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, 3(4), 1–13.
Becherair, A., & Tahtane, M. (2017). The causality between corruption and human development in MENA countries: A panel data analysis. East-West Journal of Economics and Business, 20(2).
Ben, E. U., Udo, E. S., Abner, I. P., & Ibekwe, U. J. (2018). The effect of corruption on economic sustainability and growth in Nigeria. International Journal of Economics, Commerce and Management, 6(4), 657–669.
Dinh, D. V. (2020). Impulse response of inflation to economic growth dynamics: VAR model analysis. Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 7(9), 219–228.
Ditimi, K., & Emma-Ebere, S. (2018). Empirical analysis of the relationship between money supply and inflation in Nigeria (1970–2016). International Journal of Finance, Accounting and Economics Studies, 6(2), 1–12.
Durguti, E. A. (2020). How does the budget deficit affect inflation rate–Evidence from Western Balkans countries. International Journal of Finance and Banking Studies, 9(2147–4486), 1–10.
Elijah, A. O. (2021). Inflation, unemployment and Nigerian economic growth: An ARDL approach. Journal of Finance and Economics, 9(1), 12–24.
Gyang, E. J., Anzaku, E., Iyakwari, A. D. B., & Eze, F. (2018). An analysis of the relationship between unemployment, inflation and economic growth in Nigeria: 1986–2015.
Herbener, J. M. (2011). The fallacy of the Phillips curve. In Dissent on Keynes: A Critical Appraisal of Keynesian Economics. Praeger.
Idris, M., & Suleiman, Z. (2019). Inflation and Nigeria's economic growth: A vector error correction approach. Journal of Economic Integration, 34(3), 510–527.
Karki, S., Banjara, S., & Dumre, A. (2020). A review on impact of inflation on economic growth in Nepal. Archives of Agriculture and Environmental Science, 5(4), 576–582.
Keji, D., & Emma-Ebere, E. (2018). Empirical analysis of the relationship between money supply and inflation in Nigeria (1970–2016). International Journal of Finance, Accounting and Economics Studies, 6(2), 1–12.
Miftahu, I. (2021). Effects of unemployment and inflation on economic growth in Nigeria: A time series analysis (1986–2020). Nigerian Journal of Economics and Management Studies, 17(2), 45–58.
Okoroafor, O. K., Adeniji, O. A., & Olasehinde, T. A. (2018). Inflation threshold, inflation estimates and inflation-growth nexus in Nigeria (1961–2016). Journal of Economic and Sustainable Development, 9(4), 42–58.
Okun, A. M. (1962). Potential GNP: Its measurement and significance. American Statistical Association. Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section, 98-104.
Rabail, A., Ahmad, T., Emil, E., & Narmatha, R. (2017). Impact of inflation on economic growth: A case study of Pakistan. Global Journal of Management and Business Research: B Economics and Commerce, 17(4), 23–35.
Rivera, J. P. R., & Tullao, T. S. Jr. (2020). Investigating the link between remittances and inflation: Evidence from the Philippines. Southern Southeast Asia Research, 28(3), 301–326.
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