Factors analysis slowing down the recovery of international tourism after COVID-2019
Abstract
Taking into account the significant impact of tourism on the development of society and the current crisis, the study of factors affecting the speed of its recovery requires great attention. Previous outbreaks of infectious diseases were smaller in scale, so their impact on international tourism was local. In addition, the current state of society has new circumstances. The subject of the study is the modern factors of recovery of international tourism after COVID-2019. The goal is to study the current features of the recovery of tourism after COVID-2019 and to determine the factors that slow it down. Tasks: research on the importance of international tourism, the impact of COVID-2019 on its development and the identification of negative factors for recovery. The method of systematic review of scientific publications on this topic, as well as informative materials of various international organizations, was used in the research process. The results of calculations of relative indicators of the development of international tourism are presented using a graphical method based on Microsoft Excel spreadsheets. Research results have shown that international tourism is recovering after COVID-2019 at a rather slow pace. Quarantine measures, the emergence of a new strain of the virus, economic factors and the war in Ukraine are preventing faster recovery. Conclusions: the main risk for the recovery of international tourism is Russia's military aggression against Ukraine, which has a negative impact on the recovery of international tourism due to flight bans, rising oil prices, and disruption of food supply chains. In the near future, this will affect the decrease in incomes of the population and the reduction of the number of jobs and, as a result, the decrease in the tourist flow. The increase in oil prices requires the transition to renewable energy sources and the introduction of energy-saving technologies. This reinforces the need for greening the tourism industry and requires increased investment, as well as the application of a comprehensive policy aimed at increasing the number of international tourists and expanding the use of clean energy.
Downloads
References
/References
: A year in review. COVID-19 and tourism. UNWTO: [сайт]. URL: https://www.unwto.org/covid-19-and-tourism-2020 (date of access: 10.02.2022).
Abbas Ja., Mubeen R., Lorember P.T., Raza S., Mamirkulova G. Exploring the impact of COVID-19 on tourism: transformational potential and implications for a sustainable recovery of the travel and leisure industry. Current Research in Behavioral Sciences. 2021. Vol.2, November. 100033. URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666518221000206
Bekele H. Factors determining international tourist flow to tourism destinations: A systematic review Journal of Hospitality Management and Tourism. 2021. 12 (1), 9-17 DOI: 10.5897/JHMT2019.0276 https://academicjournals.org/journal/JHMT/article-full-text-pdf/03161F267079
Climate Change and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges; United Nations World Tourism Organization: Madrid UNWTO, 2008. 256 P.
COVID-19 and Transforming Tourism. Policy Brief. AUGUST 2020. United Nations. UNWTO: [сайт]. URL: https://webunwto.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2020-08/SG-Policy-Brief-on-COVID-and-Tourism.pdf (date of access: 26.07.2022).
Editorial: The price of war. OECD: [сайт]. URL: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/62d0ca31-en/index.html?itemId=/content/publication/62d0ca31-en# (date of access: 28.07.2022).
Global Tourism Dashboard. UNWTO: [сайт]. URL: https://www.unwto.org/global-and-regional-tourism-performance (date of access: 18.07.2022).
Gu Yu. Onggo B.S., Kunc M.H. & Bayer S. Small Island Developing States (SIDS) COVID-19 post-pandemic tourism recovery: A system dynamics approach, Current Issues in Tourism. 2022. Vol. 25, Is. 9. P. 1481-1508, DOI: 10.1080/13683500.2021.1924636
Impact of the Russian Offensive in Ukraine on International Tourism. UNWTO Tourism Market Intelligence and Competitiveness. UNWTO: [сайт]. URL: https://www.unwto.org/impact-russian-offensive-in-ukraine-on-tourism (date of access: 25.07.2022).
International Recommendations for Tourism Statistics 2008. New York, 2010. 134 P. URL: https://www.geostat.ge/media/13394/SeriesM_83rev1e.pdf
International Tourism Highlights, 2020 Edition, Madrid: UNWTO, 2020. 23 P. UNWTO: [сайт]. URL: https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/epdf/10.18111/9789284422456
Kalaitan, T.V., Stybel, V.V., Gutyj, B.V., Hrymak, O.Ya., Kushnir, L.P., Yaroshevych, N.B., Vovk, M.V., Kindrat, O.V. Ecotourism and sustainable development. Prospects for Ukraine. Ukrainian Journal of Ecology. 2021. Vol. 11, Is. 1. P. 373-383. DOI: 10.15421/2021_55
Khan N., Hassan A., Fahad S., Naushad M. Factors Affecting Tourism Industry and Its Impacts on Global Economy of the World (March 23, 2020). SSRN Electronic Journal. 2020. URL: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3559353
Lanouar C., Goaied M. Tourism, terrorism and political violence in Tunisia: Evidence from Markov-switching models. Tourism Management. 2019. Vol.70. P. 404–418. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2018.09.002
Llorca-Vivero R. Terrorism and international tourism: New evidence. Defence and Peace Economics. 2008. Vol. 19, Is. 2. P.169–188. DOI: 10.1080/10242690701453917
Orindaru A., Popescu M.-F., Alexoaei A. P., Caescu S.-C., Florescu M.S., Orzan O.A. Tourism in a Post-COVID-19 Era: Sustainable Strategies for Industry’s Recovery. Sustainability. 2021, Vol. 13, Is. 12. 6781. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13126781
Škare M, Soriano DR, Porada-Rochoń M. Impact of COVID-19 on the travel and tourism industry. Technol Forecast Social Change. 2021. Vol. 163. 120469. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120469.
Small island developing states face uphill battle in COVID-19 recovery. UNCTAD: [сайт]. URL: https://unctad.org/news/small-island-developing-states-face-uphill-battle-covid-19-recovery (date of access: 28.07.2022).
The Price of War. OECD Economic Outlook, June 2022. OECD: [сайт]. URL: https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/ (date of access: 28.07.2022).
Tourism and COVID-2019 – Unprecedented Economic Impacts. Secretary-General’s Policy Brief on Tourism and COVID-19. UNWTO: [сайт]. URL: https://www.unwto.org/tourism-and-covid-19-unprecedented-economic-impacts (date of access: 26.07.2022).
Tourism in SIDS – the challenge of sustaining livelihoods in times of COVID-19, UNWTO Briefing Note – Tourism and COVID-19, Issue 2. June 2020. UNWTO, Madrid, DOI: https://doi.org/10.18111/9789284421916.
Tourism Policy Responses to the coronavirus (COVID-19). OCED: [сайт]. URL: https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/tourism-policy-r.esponses-to-the-coronavirus-covid-19-6466aa20/ (date of access: 30.03.2021).
Tourism statistics. Eurostat: [сайт]. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Tourism_statistics (date of access: 18.02.2022).
Travel & Tourism - Global Economic Impact & Trends 2020 - May 2020. WTTC, 22 P.
Travel & Tourism - Global Economic Impact 2022. WTTC: [сайт]. URL: https://wttc.org/Portals/0/Documents/EIR/EIR2022-global-infographic-2pager-080622.pdf?ver=2022-06-14-183513-303 (date of access: 20.05.2022).
Travel & Tourism Economic Impact 2021, Global Economic Impact & Trends 2021. June 2021. WTTC, 26 P. URL: https://wttc.org/Portals/0/Documents/Reports/2021/Global%20Economic%20Impact%20and%20Trends%202021.pdf (date of access: 26.07.2022).
Turkey's tourism sector battling fallout from the war in Ukraine. DW.COM: [сайт]. URL: https://www.dw.com/en/turkeys-tourism-sector-battling-fallout-from-the-war-in-ukraine/a-61698095 (date of access: 30.07.2022).
Ukraine crisis clouds Southeast Asia’s fragile tourism recovery. Aljazeera: [сайт]. URL: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/3/4/ukraine-crisis-clouds-southeast-asias-fragile-tourism-recovery (date of access: 28.07.2022).
UNWTO World Tourism Barometer. UNWTO: [сайт]. URL: https://www.unwto.org/unwto-world-tourism-barometer-data (date of access: 19.02.2022).
World Tourism Organization and International Transport Forum. Transport-related CO2 Emissions of the Tourism Sector – Modelling Results, UNWTO, Madrid, doi: https://doi.org/10.18111/9789284416660. URL: https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/pdf/10.18111/9789284416660 (date of access: 19.02.2022).
Yaroshevych, N. B., Cherkasova, S. V., Kalaitan, T. V. Inconsistencies of small business fiscal stimulation in Ukraine. Journal of Tax Reform. 2019. Vol. 5, № 3. P. 204–219. doi: 10.15826/jtr.2019.5.3.068
Бондаренко Ю. Г., Романюк Е. В. Стан та перспективи розвитку туристичної галузі в умовах пандемії. Journal of Lviv Polytechnic National University. 2021. Том 5, №1. С. 132-143. https://doi.org/10.23939/semi2021.01.132
Вовк С. Вплив тероризму на міжнародний туризм. Журнал європейської економіки. 2015. № 14. С. 37–50. URL: http://jeej.wunu.edu.ua/index.php/ukjee/article/view/788 (дата звернення: 19.07.2022).
Калайтан Т., Гримак О., Кушнір Л. (2022). Міжнародний туризм: до і після COVID-19. Вплив обліку та фінансів на розвиток економічних процесів: матеріали ІІІ Міжнародної науково-практичної конференції, м. Береговe, 15 червня 2022 р. / Закарпатський угорський інститут імені Ференца Ракоці ІІ, 2022. C. 437-440.
Калайтан Т., Гримак О., Кушнір Л., Шурпенкова Р., Сарахман О. Аналіз потенціалу готельного господарства Львівської області. Перспективи розвитку сільських готелів. Науковий вісник Львівського національного університету ветеринарної медицини та біотехнологій імені С. З. Ґжицького. Серія «Економічні науки». 2021. Том 23, №98. С.23-33. URL: https://doi.org/10.32718/nvlvet-e9804 (дата звернення 19.07.2022).
Лепкий М.І. Фактори розвитку туристичного господарства. Інфраструктура ринку. 2018. Вип. 25. С. 549-555. URL: http://www.market-infr.od.ua/journals/2018/25_2018_ukr/94.pdf (дата звернення 20.07.2022).
Петрушенко Ю. М., Журавка Ф. О., Мареха І.С., Новгородцева М.О. Вісник Хмельницького національного університету. Економічні науки. 2021. 2021. № 3. С.203-208. DOI: 10.31891/2307-5740-2021-294-3-32 URL: http://journals.khnu.km.ua/vestnik/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/2021-en-3-32.pdf (дата звернення 19.08.2022).
У ДАРТ назвали туристичні тренди 2022 року. Укрінформ: [сайт]. URL: https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-tourism/3394215-u-dart-nazvali-turisticni-trendi-2022-roku.html (дата звернення 18.02.2022).
UNWTO (2021). 2020: A year in review. COVID-19 and tourism. Available at: https://www.unwto.org/covid-19-and-tourism-2020 (accessed: 10.02.2022).
Abbas Ja., Mubeen R., Lorember P.T., Raza S., Mamirkulova G. (2021). Exploring the impact of COVID-19 on tourism: transformational potential and implications for a sustainable recovery of the travel and leisure industry. Current Research in Behavioral Sciences. Vol.2. November, 100033. Available at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666518221000206
Bekele H. (2021). Factors determining international tourist flow to tourism destinations: A systematic review Journal of Hospitality Management and Tourism 12 (1), 9-17 DOI: 10.5897/JHMT2019.0276 Available at: https://academicjournals.org/journal/JHMT/article-full-text-pdf/03161F267079
UNWTO (2008). Climate Change and Tourism: Responding to Global Challenges; United Nations World Tourism Organization: Madrid UNWTO, 2008. 256 P.
United Nations (2020). COVID-19 and Transforming Tourism. Policy Brief. AUGUST 2020. United Nations. Available at: https://webunwto.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/2020-08/SG-Policy-Brief-on-COVID-and-Tourism.pdf (accessed: 26.07.2022).
OECD (2022). Editorial: The price of war. Available at: https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/62d0ca31-en/index.html?itemId=/content/publication/62d0ca31-en# (accessed: 28.07.2022).
UNWTO (2022). Global Tourism Dashboard. Available at: https://www.unwto.org/global-and-regional-tourism-performance (accesed: 18.07.2022).
Gu Yu. Onggo B.S., Kunc M.H. & Bayer S. (2022). Small Island Developing States (SIDS) COVID-19 post-pandemic tourism recovery: A system dynamics approach, Current Issues in Tourism, 25(9), 1481-1508, DOI: 10.1080/13683500.2021.1924636
UNWTO (2022). Impact of the Russian Offensive in Ukraine on International Tourism. UNWTO Tourism Market Intelligence and Competitiveness. Available at: https://www.unwto.org/impact-russian-offensive-in-ukraine-on-tourism (accesed: 25.07.2022).
United Nations (2010). International Recommendations for Tourism Statistics 2008. New York, 2010. 134 P. Available at: https://www.geostat.ge/media/13394/SeriesM_83rev1e.pdf
UNWTO (2020). International Tourism Highlights, 2020 Edition, Madrid: UNWTO, 2020. 23 P. Available at: https://www.e-unwto.org/doi/epdf/10.18111/9789284422456
Kalaitan, T.V., Stybel, V.V., Gutyj, B.V., Hrymak, O.Ya., Kushnir, L.P., Yaroshevych, N.B., Vovk, M.V., Kindrat, O.V. (2021). Ecotourism and sustainable development. Prospects for Ukraine. Ukrainian Journal of Ecology, 11 (1), 373-383. DOI: 10.15421/2021_55
Khan N., Hassan A., Fahad S., Naushad M. (2020). Factors Affecting Tourism Industry and Its Impacts on Global Economy of the World (March 23, 2020). SSRN Electronic Journal. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3559353 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3559353
Lanouar C., Goaied M. (2019). Tourism, terrorism and political violence in Tunisia: Evidence from Markov-switching models. Tourism Management. 70, 404–418. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2018.09.002
Llorca-Vivero R. (2008). Terrorism and international tourism: New evidence. Defence and Peace Economics. 19(2):169–188. DOI: 10.1080/10242690701453917
Orindaru A., Popescu M.-F., Alexoaei A. P., Caescu S.-C., Florescu M.S., Orzan O.A. (2021). Tourism in a Post-COVID-19 Era: Sustainable Strategies for Industry’s Recovery. Sustainability 2021, 13(12), 6781; https://doi.org/10.3390/su13126781
Škare M, Soriano DR, Porada-Rochoń M. (2021). Impact of COVID-19 on the travel and tourism industry. Technol Forecast Soc Change. 163:120469. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120469.
UNCTAD (2021). Small island developing states face uphill battle in COVID-19 recovery. Available at: https://unctad.org/news/small-island-developing-states-face-uphill-battle-covid-19-recovery (accesed: 28.07.2022).
OECD (2022). The Price of War. OECD Economic Outlook, June 2022 Available at: https://www.oecd.org/economic-outlook/ (accesed: 28.07.2022).
UNWTO (2020). Tourism and COVID-2019 – Unprecedented Economic Impacts. Secretary-General’s Policy Brief on Tourism and COVID-19. Available at: https://www.unwto.org/tourism-and-covid-19-unprecedented-economic-impacts (accesed: 26.07.2022).
UNWTO (2020). Tourism in SIDS – the challenge of sustaining livelihoods in times of COVID-19, UNWTO Briefing Note – Tourism and COVID-19, Issue 2. June 2020. UNWTO, Madrid, DOI: https://doi.org/10.18111/9789284421916.
OCED (2020). Tourism Policy Responses to the coronavirus (COVID-19). Available at: https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/tourism-policy-r.esponses-to-the-coronavirus-covid-19-6466aa20/ (accesed: 30.03.2021).
Eurostat (2021). Tourism statistics. Available at: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Tourism_statistics (accesed: 18.02.2022).
WTTC (2020). Travel & Tourism - Global Economic Impact & Trends 2020 - May 2020. WTTC, 22 P. Available at: https://wttc.org/Portals/0/Documents/Reports/2020/Global%20Economic%20Impact%20Trends%202020.pdf?ver=2021-02-25-183118-360 (accesed: 18.02.2022).
WTTC (2022). Travel & Tourism - Global Economic Impact 2022. Available at: https://wttc.org/Portals/0/Documents/EIR/EIR2022-global-infographic-2pager-080622.pdf?ver=2022-06-14-183513-303 (accesed: 20.05.2022).
WTTC (2021). Travel & Tourism Economic Impact 2021, Global Economic Impact & Trends 2021. June 2021. WTTC, 26 P. Available at: https://wttc.org/Portals/0/Documents/Reports/2021/Global%20Economic%20Impact%20and%20Trends%202021.pdf (accesed: 26.07.2022).
DW.COM (2022). Turkey's tourism sector battling fallout from the war in Ukraine. Available at: https://www.dw.com/en/turkeys-tourism-sector-battling-fallout-from-the-war-in-ukraine/a-61698095 (accesed: 30.07.2022).
Aljazeera (2022). Ukraine crisis clouds Southeast Asia’s fragile tourism recovery. Available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2022/3/4/ukraine-crisis-clouds-southeast-asias-fragile-tourism-recovery (accesed: 28.07.2022).
UNWTO (2022). UNWTO World Tourism Barometer. Available at: https://www.unwto.org/unwto-world-tourism-barometer-data (accesed: 19.02.2022).
UNWTO (2019). World Tourism Organization and International Transport Forum (2019). Transport-related CO2 Emissions of the Tourism Sector – Modelling Results, UNWTO, Madrid, doi: https://doi.org/10.18111/9789284416660.
Yaroshevych, N. B., Cherkasova, S. V., Kalaitan, T. V. (2019). Inconsistencies of small business fiscal stimulation in Ukraine. Journal of Tax Reform. 5(3), 204–219. doi: 10.15826/jtr.2019.5.3.068
Bondarenko Ju. Gh., Romanjuk E. V., (2021). Stan ta perspektyvy rozvytku turystychnoji ghaluzi v umovakh pandemiji [The state and prospects of the development of the tourism industry in the conditions of the pandemic]. Journal of Lviv Polytechnic National University [Journal of Lviv Polytechnic National University]. Vol.5, №1. pp. 132-143. Available at: https://doi.org/10.23939/semi2021.01.132 (accesed: 19.07.2022).
Vovk S. (2015). Vplyv teroryzmu na mizhnarodnyj turyzm [The impact of terrorism on international tourism.]. Zhurnal jevropejsjkoji ekonomiky [Journal of European Economy]. № 14. pp. 37–50. Available at: http://jeej.wunu.edu.ua/index.php/ukjee/article/view/788 (accesed: 19.07.2022).
Kalajtan T., Ghrymak O., Kushnir L. (2022). Mizhnarodnyj turyzm: do i pislja COVID-19 [International tourism: before and after COVID-19]. Proceedings of the Vplyv obliku ta finansiv na rozvytok ekonomichnykh procesiv (Ukraine, Beregove, June 15, 2022), Uzhhorod: FOP Sabov A. M., 2022, pp. 437-440.
Kalajtan T., Ghrymak O., Kushnir L., Shurpenkova R., Sarakhman O. (2021). Analiz potencialu ghoteljnogho ghospodarstva Ljvivsjkoji oblasti. Perspektyvy rozvytku siljsjkykh ghoteliv [Analysis of the potential of the hotel industry in the Lviv region. Prospects for the development of rural hotels.] Naukovyj visnyk Ljvivsjkogho nacionaljnogho universytetu veterynarnoji medycyny ta biotekhnologhij imeni S. Z. Gzhycjkogho. Serija «Ekonomichni nauky». [Scientific Messenger of the Lviv National University of Veterinary Medicine and Biotechnology. Series “Economic Sciences”] Vol. 23, №98. pp.23-33. Available at https://doi.org/10.32718/nvlvet-e9804 (accesed: 19.07.2022).
Lepkyj M.I. (2018). Faktory rozvytku turystychnogho ghospodarstva. Infrastruktura rynku [Market infrastructure]. Vol.25, pp.549-555. Available at http://www.market-infr.od.ua/journals/2018/25_2018_ukr/94.pdf (accesed: 23.07.2022).
Petrushenko Ju. M., Zhuravka F. O., Marekha I.S., Novghorodceva M.O. (2021). Visnyk Khmeljnycjkogho nacionaljnogho universytetu. Ekonomichni nauky [Messenger of the Khmelnytskyi National University. Economic sciences.] № 3. С.203-208. DOI: 10.31891/2307-5740-2021-294-3-32 Available at http://journals.khnu.km.ua/vestnik/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/2021-en-3-32.pdf (accesed: 23.07.2022).
Ukrinform (2022). U DART nazvaly turystychni trendy 2022 roku [DART named the tourism trends of 2022]. Available at: https://www.ukrinform.ua/rubric-tourism/3394215-u-dart-nazvali-turisticni-trendi-2022-roku.html (accesed: 18.02.2022).
Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
- Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication of this work under the terms of a license Creative Commons Attribution License 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).
- Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgement of its initial publication in this journal.
- Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work.
