VIKTOR ORBÁN’S HUNGARY DEMOCRATIC BACKSLIDING AND EU REACTION
Abstract
The article analyses the main features of Hungarian democratic backsliding since 2010 when Viktor Orbán’s rule was started ruling the country again and examines the reaction of the EU institutional system.
The completeness of Europeanization and the post-communist democratic development was questioned due to the gradual autocratic transformation of the political regime, the strengthening of authority’s control and the permanent disputes with other EU countries regarding security and foreign affairs. The EU’s institutions have mostly had limited opportunities to prevent anti-democratic actions by the Hungarian government since the existing judicial procedures, such as Article 7 of the Treaty on European Union, have not been effective. Considering the reactions of numerous European authorities to Hungarian democratic backsliding, it is possible to assume that the European Commission, due to various systemic reasons, has preferred a strategy of political dialogue with Budapest, avoiding stronger institutional responses such as sanctions. Despite being the most critical EU body of power toward the Hungarian premier and his political party since 2010, the European Parliament also restrained its reaction for a long time. The key reason for that behaviour was that FIDESZ helped to build the government coalition as a part of the European People’s Party from 2010 to 2020, allowing it to hold leading positions in the EU institutional system. The European Council stepped away from the problem because other countries favoured not to criticize the Hungarian government and were reluctant to give the European Commission additional power in the dispute between EU authorities and the national government. At the time, the Court of Justice of the European Union had limited competence in those areas. And, as a result, the mechanism of Article 7 of the TEU was activated against Hungary only in 2018 and wasn’t finished properly. Another EU instrument, such as the financial conditionality of EU funds, was adopted in 2020. However, its final result also hasn’t been successful, and despite financial restrictions from the EU budget on Hungary, it has not stopped Viktor Orbán.
So, the EU has used numerous strategies, such as rhetorical tension, political dialogue with Budapest, institutional responses, and their combinations, but the last ones have not prevented Hungary’s democratic backsliding. Now, the EU should update its institutional efficiency to correct the situation in Hungary and to lead to an end similar situation in the future.
Downloads
References
Baccini, F. 2023. EU Commission unfreezes nearly a third of funds blocked to Hungary. URL: https://www.eunews.it/en/2023/12/13/eu-commission-unfreezes-nearly-a-third-of-funds-blocked-to-hungary/ (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Batory, A. 2016. Defying the Commission: Creative Compliance and Respect for the Rule of Law in the EU. Public Administration. Vol. 94, No. 3, pp. 685–699; https://doi.org/10.1111/padm.12254.
Blauberger, M., Kelemen, R. D. 2017. Can Courts Rescue National Democracy? Judicial Safeguards Against Democratic Backsliding in the EU. Journal of European Public Policy, 24(3), pp. 321–336. doi: 10.1080/13501763.2016.1229357.
Blauberger, M. and van Hüllen, V. 2021. Conditionality of EU Funds: an Instrument to Enforce EU Fundamental Values? Journal of European Integration. 43(1), pp. 1–16. Doi: 10.1080/07036337.2019.1708337.
Boros T. G. 2018 a. Soros and V. Orbán: The Battle between Progressivism and Populism. Foundation for European Progressive Studies. URL: https://feps-europe.eu/george-soros-and-viktor-orban-the-battle-between-progressivism-and-populism/ (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Boros T. G. 2018 b. The Hungarian “STOP Soros” Act. Why Does the Government Fight Human Rights Organisations? URL: https://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/budapest/14205.pdf (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Closa, C. 2019. The Politics of Quarding the Treaties: Commission Scrutiny of Rule of Law Compliance. Journal of European Public Policy, Vol. 26(5). DOI: 10.1080/13501763.2018.1477822.
Closa, C. 2021. Institutional Logics and the EU’s Limited Sanctioning Capacity under Article 7 TEU. International Political Science Review, Vol. 42, No. 4, pp. 501−515. https://doi.org/10.1177/ 0192512120908323.
Council 2014. Press Release of the 3362nd Council Meeting, General Affairs, 16936/14, 16 December. URL: https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/24763/146348.pdf (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Deutsche Welle 2015. 23 September. URL: https://www.dw.com/en/hungarys-orban-criticizes-merkels-moral-imperialism/a-18736240 (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Deutsche Welle 2019, 3 June. URL: https://www.dw.com/en/eu-conservative-bloc-lays-out-ultimatum-for-hungarys-viktor-orban/a-47787048 (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Directive 2000/78/EC of 27 November 2000 Establishing a General Framework for Equal Treatment in Employment and Occupation. EUR-Lex. URL: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=celex:32000L0078 (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Emmons, C., Pavone, T. 2021. The Rhetoric of Inaction: Failing to Fail Forward in the EU’s Rule of Law Crisis. Journal of European Public Policy, 28(10), pp. 1611–1629. Doi: 10.1080/13501763.2021.1954065.
Éltető, A., Szemlér, T. 2023. Hungary in the European Union – Cooperation, Peacock Dance and Autocracy. Comparative Southeast European Studies, Vol. 71, №No. 3, pp. 272−299; https://doi.org/10.1515/soeu-2022-0051.
Euractriv 2023, 18 December. Orbán is ‘Trojan horse’ for Russian interests, says Czech minister. URL: https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/orban-is-trojan-horse-for-russian-interests-says-czech-minister/ (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Euronews. Hungary wants to bring back the death penalty, 2015. YouTube. URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KStjTt-xeZI (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
European Commission. 2014. 11 March. A new EU Framework to strengthen the Rule of Law, COM(2014)158 final, URL: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=celex%3A52014DC0158 (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
European Commission. 2015. 19 November. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/MEMO_15_6006 (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
European Commission. 2018. Proposal for a Regulation of the European Parliament and of the Council on the Protection of the Union’s Budget in case of Generalised Deficiencies as Regards the Rule of Law in the Member States. COM(2018) 324 Final. URL: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-ontent/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52018PC0324&from=PL (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
European Commission. 2019. Strengthening the Rule of Law within the Union. A Blueprint for Action, Brussels: European Commission, July, 17. URL: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/ALL/?uri=COM%3A2019%3A343%3AFIN (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
European Commission 2020a. Rule of Law Report. The rule of law situation in the European Union. SWD (2020). URL: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52020DC0580 (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
European Commission 2020b. October infringements package: key decisions. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/inf_20_1687 (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
European Сommission, 2022a. Country Report – Hungary. SWD/2022/614. URL: https://commission.europa.eu/system/files/2022-05/2022-european-semester-country-report-hungary_en_0.pdf (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
European Commission 2022 b, Proposal for a COUNCIL IMPLEMENTING DECISION on measures for the protection of the Union budget against breaches of the principles of the rule of law in Hungary. COM(2022) 485 final 2022/0295 (NLE). Brussels, 18.9.2022; https://eur-lex.europa.eu/resource.html?uri=cellar:9473778e-372b-11ed-9c68-01aa75ed71a1.0001.02/DOC_1&format=PDF (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
European Commission 2022c, Press Release 30 November. Commission finds that Hungary has not progressed enough in its reforms and must meet essential milestones for its Recovery and Resilience funds. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_7273 (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
European Commission 2023, Press Release 13 December. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_23_6465 (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
European Parliament resolution of 10 March 2011 on media law in Hungary. URL: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-7-2011-0094_EN.html (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
European Parliament resolution of 16 February 2012 on the recent political developments in Hungary (2012/2511(RSP)). URL: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-7-2012-0053_EN.html (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
European Parliament resolution of 3 July 2013 on the situation of fundamental rights: standards and practices in Hungary (pursuant to the European Parliament resolution of 16 February 2012). URL: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-7-2013-0315_EN.html (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
European Parliament resolution of 10 June 2015 on the situation in Hungary (2015/2700(RSP)). URL: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-8-2015-0227_EN.html (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
European Parliament resolution of 16 December 2015 on the situation in Hungary (2015/2935(RSP)). URL: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:52015IP0461 (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
European Parliament resolution of 17 May 2017 on the situation in Hungary. URL: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-8-2017-0216_EN.html (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
European Parliament. REPORT on a proposal calling on the Council to determine, pursuant to Article 7(1) of the Treaty on European Union, the existence of a clear risk of a serious breach by Hungary of the values on which the Union is founded. A8-0250/2018. URL: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/A-8-2018-0250_EN.pdf (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
European Parliament resolution of 16 January 2020 on ongoing hearings under Article 7(1) of the TEU regarding Poland and Hungary (2020/2513(RSP)). URL: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/TA-9-2020-0014_EN.html (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Eurostat 2023a, GDP per capita in PPS. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/databrowser/view/tec00114/default/table?lang=en (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Eurostat 2023b, Consumer prices – inflation. URL: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Consumer_prices_-_inflation&oldid=629754 (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Freedom House 2023. URL: https://freedomhouse.org/country/hungary (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Hettyey, A., 2020. The Europeanization of Hungarian Foreign Policy and the Hungarization of European Foreign Policy, 2010-1018. Journal of Contemporary European Studies, 29(1), pp. 125–138. DOI: 10.1080/14782804.2020.1824895.
Holesch, A., Kyriazi, A. 2022. Democratic Backsliding in the European Union: the Role of the Hungarian-Polish Coalition. East European Politics, 38(1), pp. 1−20. DOI: 10.1080/21599165.2020.1865319.
Gervasoni, C. 2010. A Rentier Theory of Subnational Regimes: Fiscal Federalism, Democracy, and Authoritarianism in the Argentine Provinces. World Politics, 62(2), pp. 302–340. Doi:10.1017/S0043887110000067.
Gotev G. Orbán says migrant crisis is ‘Germany’s problem’. URL: https://www.euractiv.com/section/justice-home-affairs/news/orban-says-migrant-crisis-is-germany-s-problem/ (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Kelemen, R. D. 2017. Europe’s Other Democratic Deficit: National Authoritarianism in Europe’s Democratic Union. Government and Opposition Vol. 52(2), pp. 211–238. Doi: 10.1017/gov.2016.41.
Kelemen, R. D. 2020. The European Union’s Authoritarian Equilibrium. Journal of European Public Policy, 27(3), pp. 481–499; https://doi.org/10.1080/13501763.2020.1712455.
Magyar, B. 2016. Post-Communist Mafia State: The Case of Hungary. Central European University Press. 337 p.
Maurits, M., Harmen van der, V. 2018. Responses to ‘Democratic Backsliding’ in Hungary and Poland: An Analysis of Agenda-Setting and Voting Behaviour. Journal of Common Market Studies, pp. 1-33. URL: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3255466 (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Mos, M. 2020. Ambiguity and Interpretive Politics in the Crisis of European Values: Evidence from Hungary. East European Politics. East European Politics, Vol. 36(2), pp. 267–287. DOI: 10.1080/21599165.2020.1724965.
Obserwator Finansowy 2020, 9 September. Economic traits of the Hungarian eastern opening policy. URL: https://www.obserwatorfinansowy.pl/in-english/macroeconomics/economic-traits-of-the-hungarian-eastern-opening-policy-2 (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Oliver, P., Stefanelli, J. 2016. Strengthening the Rule of Law in the EU: The Council’s Inaction. Journal of Common Market Studies. Vol. 54(5), pp. 1075−1084; https://doi.org/10.1111/jcms.12402.
Viktor Orbán’s “State of the Nation” Address. Government, February 19, 2018. URL: https://2015-2019.kormany.hu/en/the-prime-minister/the-prime-minister-s-speeches/viktor-orban-s-state-of-the-nation-address (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Pech, L., Scheppele, K. 2017. Illiberalism Within: Rule of Law Backsliding in the EU. Cambridge Yearbook of European Legal Studies, 19, pp. 3–47. Doi:10.1017/cel.2017.9.
Politico 2018, 23 November. URL: https://www.politico.eu/article/viktor-orban-defends-granting-asylum-to-ex-macedonia-pm-nikola-gruevski/ (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Priebus, S. 2022. The Commission’s Approach to Rule of Law Backsliding: Managing Instead of Enforcing Democratic Values? Journal of Common Market Studies, Vol. 60(6), pp. 1684-1700. DOI: 10.1111/jcms.13341.
Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s Speech in the European Parliament, 2015. URL: https://2015-2019.kormany.hu/en/the-prime-minister/the-prime-minister-s-speeches/prime-minister-viktor-orban-s-speech-in-the-european-parliament (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Regulation (EU, Euratom) 2020/2092 Of The European Parliament and of the Council of 16 December 2020 on a general regime of conditionality for the protection of the Union budget. URL: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/PDF/?uri=CELEX:32020R2092 (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Reuters, 15 March 2017. URL: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hungary-orban-idUSKBN16M1T4/ ?il=0 (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Toplisek, A. 2019. The Political Economy of Populist Rule in Post-Crisis Europe: Hungary and Poland. New Political Economy, 25(3), pp. 388–403. DOI: 10.1080/13563467.2019.1598960.
The Budapest Beacon 2014, 29 July. URL: https://budapestbeacon.com/full-text-of-viktor-orbans-speech-at-baile-tusnad-tusnadfurdo-of-26-july-2014/ (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
The Economist, 2022, 2 April. URL: https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2022/04/02/a-wild-gerrymander-makes-hungarys-fidesz-party-hard-to-dislodge (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Sedelmeier, U. 2016. Political Safeguards against Democratic Backsliding in the EU: the Limits of Material Sanctions and the Scope of Social Pressure. Journal of European Public Policy. DOI: 10.1080/13501763.2016.1229358 URL: https://eprints.lse.ac.uk/68112/1/Sedelmeier_Political%20safeguards_2016.pdf (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Speech by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, following the election victory of Fidesz-KDNP, 2022, 3 April. URL: https://2015-2022.miniszterelnok.hu/speech-by-prime-minister-viktor-orban-following-the-election-victory-of-fidesz-kdnp/ (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Spending and revenue 2014−2020. European Commission. URL: https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/eu-budget/long-term-eu-budget/2014-2020/spending-and-revenue_en (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Spending and revenue 2021−2027. European Commission. URL: https://commission.europa.eu/strategy-and-policy/eu-budget/long-term-eu-budget/2021-2027/spending-and-revenue_en (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Szijjártó P. 2018. Luxembourg’s Foreign Minister hates Hungary. Government. URL: https://2015- 2019.kormany.hu/en/ministry-of-foreign-affairs-and-trade/news/luxembourg-s-foreign-minister-hates-hungary (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Vachudova, A. M. 2020. Ethnopopulism and Democratic Backsliding in Central Europe. East European Politics, 36(3), pp. 318–340. Doi: 10.1080/21599165.2020.1787163.
Varga, M., Buzogány A., 2021. The Foreign Policy of Populists in Power: Contesting Liberalism in Poland and Hungary. Geopolitics. DOI: 10.1080/14650045.2020.1734564.
Visnovitz, P., Jenne, 2021. Populist Argumentation in Foreign Policy: the Case of Hungary under Viktor Orbán, 2010–2020. Comparative European Politics. Vol. 19, pp. 683–702; https://doi.org/10.1057/s41295-021-00256-3.
Wahl, Th. 2022. Conditionality Mechanism: MEPs Dissatisfied – Commission Takes Action against Hungary. URL: https://eucrim.eu/news/conditionality-mechanism-meps-dissatisfied-commission-takes-action-against-hungary/ (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Welt 2019, 2 March. URL: https://www.welt.de/politik/ausland/article189686639/Ungarns-Ministerpraesident-Orban-bezeichnet-EVP-Kritiker-als-nuetzliche-Idioten-der-Linken.html (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Winzen, T. 2023. How Backsliding Governments Keep the European Union Hospitable for Autocracy: Evidence from Intergovernmental Negotiations. The Review of International Organizations. Doi.org/10.1007/s11558-023-09518-z.
Vakhudova , A. 2009. Nerozdilena Yevropa: demokratiya, vazheli vplyvu ta intehratsiya pislya komunizmu. Kyyiv. (In Ukranian).
Вахудова, А. 2009. Нерозділена Європа: демократія, важелі впливу та інтеграція після комунізму. Київ.
Yevropejs`ka pravda. 2019. MZS Shveciyi vy`kly`kalo posla Ugorshhy`ny` cherez rizki zayavy` Budapeshta. URL: https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2019/02/20/7093064/ (Date of access: 18.12.2023). (In Ukranian).
Європейська правда 2019. МЗС Швеції викликало посла Угорщини через різкі заяви Будапешта. URL: https://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2019/02/20/7093064/ (Date of access: 18.12.2023).
Konsolidovani versiyi Dogovoru pro Yevropejs`ky`j Soyuz ta Dogovoru pro funkcionuvannya Yevropejs`kogo Soyuzu. URL: https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/994_b06#Text (Date of access: 18.12.2023). (In Ukranian).
Консолідовані версії Договору про Європейський Союз та Договору про функціонування Європейського Союзу (2010/С 83/01) URL: https://zakon.rada.gov.ua/laws/show/994_b06#Text.