ВПЛИВ ПОСУХИ ТА РІЗКИХ ЗМІН ДОХОДІВ НА ГОСТРУ НЕСТАЧУ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВА В СОМАЛІ ПІД ЧАС ПАНДЕМІЇ COVID-19: ПІДХІД НА ОСНОВІ ПОТЕНЦІЙНИХ РЕЗУЛЬТАТІВ ІЗ ВИКОРИСТАННЯМ РЕГРЕСІЇ ПУАССОНА
Ключові слова:
шоки доходів, посуха, ATE, ATET, гострий голод, Сомалі
Анотація
Економічна діяльність домогосподарств у Сомалі сильно залежить від періодичних посух та інших екологічних небезпек, таких як повені та циклони. Вплив цих потрясінь посилюється через те, що домогосподарства піддаються іншим потрясінням, і їхній сукупний вплив легко відчувається на харчуванні домогосподарств. Тому в цьому дослідженні було проаналізовано вплив посухи та інших потрясінь на добробут, на серйозну продовольчу нестабільність у Сомалі. Дані були отримані під час другого етапу високочастотного телефонного опитування переміщених осіб, яке охопило 2505 домогосподарств. Модель регресії Пуассона була оцінена з використанням потенційної рамки результатів для обчислення середнього ефекту лікування (ATE) та середнього ефекту лікування на лікованих (ATET). Результати показали вплив коваріатних та ідіосинкразичних потрясінь, серед яких найпоширенішими були посуха (87,36%), зростання цін на продовольство (79,84%) та скорочення гуманітарної допомоги (62,68%). Просторові закономірності свідчать про значно вищий вплив посухи в центральних і південних штатах. Серйозна продовольча нестабільність залишається поширеною, багато домогосподарств повідомляють про випадки вичерпання запасів їжі, голодування перед сном або цілоденне голодування. Результати регресії показують, що допомога по безробіттю, пошук роботи, зменшення доходу, розлучення, небезпечні умови проживання, статус репатріанта та проживання в Пунтленді або Сомаліленді значно збільшують очікувану тяжкість голоду, тоді як проживання в місті та участь у діяльності, що приносить дохід, зменшують її. Кілька потрясінь, включаючи закриття несільськогосподарських підприємств, крадіжки/мародерство, зростання цін на сировину та продукти харчування, хвороби або смерть осіб, які забезпечують дохід, посуху, навали сарани та циклони/шторми, суттєво погіршують продовольчу безпеку. Хоча деякі потрясіння мають незначний середній ефект лікування (ATE), їх ефект лікування на лікованих (ATET) є значним, що свідчить про непропорційний вплив на вже вразливі групи населення. Ці висновки підкреслюють нагальну потребу в посиленні соціальної захисту, що реагує на потрясіння, підтримці засобів до існування та цілеспрямованих гуманітарних втручаннях у нестабільних умовах.
Завантаження
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Посилання
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Ahmed, A. H., & Ali, I. I. (2024). The impact of drought on food security in Somalia: A comprehensive review. Current Research in Environmental Science & Eco Letters, 1(2), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.36937/cresecol.2024.010201
Ahmed, M. M., Asowe, H. A., Dirie, N. I., Mohamud, A. K., Lucero-Prisno, D. E. III, Okesanya, O. J., Ogaya, J. B., Musa, S. S., Musa, M. K., Othman, Z. K., & Shomuyiwa, D. (2024). The nexus of climate change, food insecurity, and conflict in Somalia: A comprehensive analysis of multifaceted challenges and resilience strategies. F1000Research, 13, 913. https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.152258.1
Ali, A., Hashi, A. A., & Ali, M. H. (2025). Spatiotemporal variability of meteorological droughts and pasture resilience in Somalia. Discover Sustainability, 6(1), 260. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-01530-0
Anisa, H. (2021). The influence of political instability on environmental governance at the Horn of Africa: A case study of Somalia (Doctoral dissertation, University of Nairobi). University of Nairobi Repository.
Bakonyi, J. (2010). Between protest, revenge and material interests: A phenomenological analysis of looting in the Somali war. Disasters, 34(s1), S238–S255. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7717.2010.01162.x
Bareisaite, A., Aga, G., & Ahad, T. (2021, January 13). Coronavirus and fragility: The impact of COVID-19 on Somalia’s private sector. World Bank. https://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/coronavirus-and-fragility-impact-covid-19-somalias-private-sector
Cardwell, R., & Ghazalian, P. L. (2020). COVID-19 and international food assistance: Policy proposals to keep food flowing. World Development, 135, 105059. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105059
Dallmann, D., Marquis, G. S., Colecraft, E. K., & Dodoo, N. D. (2023). Marital transition is associated with food insecurity, low dietary diversity, and overweight in a female population in rural Ghana. African Journal of Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development, 23(1), 22149–22171. https://doi.org/10.18697/ajfand.117.22976
Damei, M. Y. (2023). Food insecurity in Somalia: A systematic review on causes and consequences. Journal of Research in Business and Management, 11(11), 41–49.
Devereux, S. (2021). Social protection responses to COVID-19 in Africa. Global Social Policy, 21(3), 421–447. https://doi.org/10.1177/14680181211032755
Dirie, K. A., Maamor, S., & Alam, M. M. (2024). Impacts of climate change in post-conflict Somalia: Is the 2030 Agenda for SDGs endangered? World Development Perspectives, 35, 100598. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wdp.2024.100598
Gumucio, T., Greatrex, H., & Lentz, E. (2022). Causal chains linking weather hazards to disasters in Somalia. Weather, Climate, and Society, 14(3), 849–860. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0090.1
Harris, E. (2023). Drought caused 43,000 deaths in Somalia in 2022, half among children. JAMA, 329(15), 1249. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2023.4310
Hassan, A. O., & Abdulle, A. S. (2025). Investigating the nexus between unemployment and food insecurity in Somalia. Discover Sustainability, 6, 1377. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-02393-1
Hussein, M., Law, C., & Fraser, I. (2021). An analysis of food demand in a fragile and insecure country: Somalia as a case study. Food Policy, 101, 102092. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102092
Hussein, S. A., Osman, M. M., Abdulle, Y. S., Hussein, A. A., Afrah, T. A., Mohamed, A. H., Adem, R., Hayle, A. A., Ali, A. N., Mohamud, M. F. Y., & Ali, A. A. (2025). The human cost of drought—Children at risk: A call to action for Somalia. Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness, 19, e120. https://doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2025.120
Hussein, S. A., Osman, M. M., Abdulle, Y. S., Hussein, A. A., Afrah, T. A., Mohamed, A. H., Adem, R., Hayle, A. A., Ali, A. N., Mohamud, M. F. Y., & Ali, A. A. (2025). The human cost of drought—Children at risk: A call to action for Somalia. Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness, 19, e120. https://doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2025.120
Jamil, S., Mohammadnezhad, M., & Muhammad, F. (2025). Can Somalia avert a food security catastrophe? The Lancet, 405(10492), 1814. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(25)00814-0
Khan, I., Ullah, W., Karami, A., Qazi, I., & Ahamad, I. (2023). Analyze the socioeconomic consequences of locust outbreaks on agriculture, rural communities, and food security. Indus Journal of Animal and Plant Sciences, 1(1), 14–20.
Kinyoki, D. K., Moloney, G. M., Uthman, O. A., Kandala, N. B., Odundo, E. O., & Noor, A. M. (2017). Conflict in Somalia: Impact on child undernutrition. BMJ Global Health, 2(2), e000262. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2016-000262
Kotikula, A., Pournik, M., & Yoshimura, K. (2021). Somalia (No. 36767). The World Bank Group. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/367671
Lin, T. K., Kafri, R., Hammoudeh, W., Mitwalli, S., Jamaluddine, Z., Ghattas, H., Giacaman, R., & Leone, T. (2022). Pathways to food insecurity in the context of conflict: The case of the occupied Palestinian territory. Conflict and Health, 16(1), 38. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13031-022-00464-4
Matsuura Kannari, M., Luh, Y.-H., & Islam, A. H. M. S. (2023). Weather shocks, livelihood diversification, and household food security: Empirical evidence from rural Bangladesh. Agricultural Economics, 54(4), 455–470. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12776
Mayhew, L., Alasia, I. J., Opitz-Stapleton, S., Dagane, I. A., Mbeche, I., Abdi, M., Sheik, S. Y. N., Harir, A. M., Hassan, A. S., & Egemonye, O. (2023). Somalia: Drought and rising costs take hold. SPARC Issue Brief. Overseas Development Institute. https://odi.org/en/publications/somalia-drought-and-rising-costs-take-hold
Mengistu, S. W., & Kassie, A. W. (2022). Household-level determinants of food insecurity in rural Ethiopia. Journal of Food Quality, 2022(1), 3569950. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/3569950
Mohamed, J., Abdi, M. J., Mohamed, A. I., Muhumed, M. A., Abdeeq, B. A., Abdi, A. A., Abdilahi, M. M., & Ali, D. A. (2024). Predicting the short and long-term effects of food price inflation, armed conflicts, and climate variability on global acute malnutrition in Somalia. Journal of Health, Population and Nutrition, 43(1), 68. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41043-024-00468-9
Mugera, H. K., & Yoshimura, K. (2023). The toll of drought on displaced and vulnerable persons in Somalia. World Bank–UNHCR Joint Data Center on Forced Displacement. https://www.jointdatacenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/THE-TOLL-OF-DROUGHT-ON-DISPLACED-AND-VULNERABLE-PERSONS-IN-SOMALIA.pdf
Muse, N. M., Tayfur, G., & Sadegh Safari, M. J. (2023). Meteorological drought assessment and trend analysis in Puntland Region of Somalia. Sustainability, 15(13), 10654. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151310654
Musei, S. K., Nyaga, J. M., & Dubow, A. Z. (2021). SPEI-based spatial and temporal evaluation of drought in Somalia. Journal of Arid Environments, 184, 104296. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2020.104296
Nasteho, M. G. (2016). Unemployment and poverty in Puntland Somalia (Doctoral dissertation, Kampala International University, College of Economics and Management).
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Опубліковано
2025-12-31
Як цитувати
Ойекале, А. С. (2025). ВПЛИВ ПОСУХИ ТА РІЗКИХ ЗМІН ДОХОДІВ НА ГОСТРУ НЕСТАЧУ ПРОДОВОЛЬСТВА В СОМАЛІ ПІД ЧАС ПАНДЕМІЇ COVID-19: ПІДХІД НА ОСНОВІ ПОТЕНЦІЙНИХ РЕЗУЛЬТАТІВ ІЗ ВИКОРИСТАННЯМ РЕГРЕСІЇ ПУАССОНА. Соціальна економіка, (72). вилучено із https://periodicals.karazin.ua/soceconom/article/view/28158
Розділ
ЕКОНОМІКА
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