IMPACTS OF DROUGHT AND INCOME SHOCKS ON SEVERE HUNGER IN SOMALIA DURING COVID-19: A POTENTIAL OUTCOME APPROACH USING POISSON REGRESSION
Keywords:
Income Shocks, Drought, ATE, ATET, Severe Hunger, Somalia
Abstract
Household economic activities in Somalia are deeply affected by periodic droughts and other environmental hazards like flooding and cyclones. The impacts of these shocks are reinforced by households’ exposure to other shocks, and their collective impacts are easily felt on households’ nutrition. This study therefore analysed the impacts of drought and other welfare shocks on severe food insecurity in Somalia. The data were the second wave of the High Frequency Telephone Survey of displaced people, comprising 2505 households. The Poisson regression model was estimated with potential outcome framework to compute the average treatment effect (ATE) and average treatment effect on the treated (ATET). The result showed exposure to covariate and idiosyncratic shocks, with drought (87.36%), food price increases (79.84%), and reduced humanitarian assistance (62.68%) being the most prevalent. Spatial patterns reveal significantly higher drought exposure in central and southern states. Severe food insecurity remains widespread, with many households reporting episodes of food exhaustion, sleeping hungry, or going a whole day without food. Regression results show that unemployment benefits, job search, reduced income, separation, unsafe living conditions, returnee status, and residence in Puntland or Somaliland significantly increase expected hunger severity, whereas urban residence and engagement in income activities reduce it. Several shocks, including non-farm business closure, theft/looting, increased input and food prices, illness or death of income earners, drought, locust invasion, and cyclone/storm events substantially worsen food insecurity. While some shocks show insignificant average treatment effects (ATE), their treatment-on-the-treated effects (ATET) are significant, demonstrating disproportionate impacts on already-vulnerable subpopulations. The findings underscore the urgent need for strengthened shock-responsive social protection, livelihood support, and targeted humanitarian interventions in fragile settings.
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References
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Hussein, S. A., Osman, M. M., Abdulle, Y. S., Hussein, A. A., Afrah, T. A., Mohamed, A. H., Adem, R., Hayle, A. A., Ali, A. N., Mohamud, M. F. Y., & Ali, A. A. (2025). The human cost of drought—Children at risk: A call to action for Somalia. Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness, 19, e120. https://doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2025.120
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Khan, I., Ullah, W., Karami, A., Qazi, I., & Ahamad, I. (2023). Analyze the socioeconomic consequences of locust outbreaks on agriculture, rural communities, and food security. Indus Journal of Animal and Plant Sciences, 1(1), 14–20.
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Lin, T. K., Kafri, R., Hammoudeh, W., Mitwalli, S., Jamaluddine, Z., Ghattas, H., Giacaman, R., & Leone, T. (2022). Pathways to food insecurity in the context of conflict: The case of the occupied Palestinian territory. Conflict and Health, 16(1), 38. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13031-022-00464-4
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Musei, S. K., Nyaga, J. M., & Dubow, A. Z. (2021). SPEI-based spatial and temporal evaluation of drought in Somalia. Journal of Arid Environments, 184, 104296. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2020.104296
Nasteho, M. G. (2016). Unemployment and poverty in Puntland Somalia (Doctoral dissertation, Kampala International University, College of Economics and Management).
Nor, M. I. (2025). Exploring Somalia's worsening climate-induced humanitarian crisis during the 2024 Deyr season drought: Building resilience amidst adversity. SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5081527
Oberg, C., Hodges, H., & Masten, A. S. (2021). Risk and resilience of Somali children in the context of climate change, famine, and conflict. Journal of Applied Research on Children: Informing Policy for Children at Risk, 12(1), 10.
Odongo, R. A., Schrieks, T., Streefkerk, I., de Moel, H., Busker, T., Haer, T., MacLeod, D., Michaelides, K., Singer, M., Assen, M., & Otieno, G. (2025). Drought impacts and community adaptation: Perspectives on the 2020–2023 drought in East Africa. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 119, 105309. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105309
Omar, A. A., Hassan, S. M., & Mohamed, M. J. (2022). Drought effects in Somalia and solution proposals. African Journal of Climate Change and Resource Sustainability, 1(1), 13–25.
Omar, A. O., Alasow, A. A., Farah, A. A., & Shahid, S. (2024). Spatiotemporal analysis of agricultural drought severity and hotspots in Somaliland. International Journal of Sustainable Development & Planning, 19(11), 1805–1817. https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsdp.191112
Oyekale, A. S., & Molelekoa, T. C. (2025). Impacts of income shocks and social protection on rural households’ food insecurity experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic in conflict-affected states in Northern Nigeria. Social Economics, 70, 27–46. https://doi.org/10.26565/2524-2547-2025-70-03
Poole, D. N., Escudero, D. J., Gostin, L. O., Leblang, D., & Talbot, E. A. (2020). Responding to the COVID-19 pandemic in complex humanitarian crises. International Journal for Equity in Health, 19(1), 41. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12939-020-01163-5
Said, M., & Bashir, A. (2023). Analysis of climate change impacts on food security in Somalia. International Journal of Media and Networks, 1(1), 101–107.
Salvador, C., Nieto, R., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., García-Herrera, R., Gimeno, L., & Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (2023). Public health implications of drought in a climate change context: A critical review. Annual Review of Public Health, 44(1), 213–232. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-071421-041905
Thalheimer, L., Gaupp, F., & Webersik, C. (2023). Systemic risk and compound vulnerability impact pathways of food insecurity in Somalia. Climate Risk Management, 42, 100570. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2023.100570
Xu, Z., Elomri, A., El Omri, A., Kerbache, L., & Liu, H. (2021). The compounded effects of COVID-19 pandemic and desert locust outbreak on food security and food supply chain. Sustainability, 13(3), 1063. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13031063
Zhao, H., Andreyeva, T., & Sun, X. (2024). Food security and health outcomes following gray divorce. Nutrients, 16(5), 633. https://doi.org/10.3390/nu16050633
Ziliak, J. P. (2021). Food hardship during the COVID‐19 pandemic and Great Recession. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 43(1), 132–152. https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13099
Abdi, Y. H., Abdullahi, Y. B., Abdi, M. S., Bashir, S. G., Ahmed, N. I., Alasow, A. A., & Hassan, G. D. (2025). Regional disparities and sociodemographic determinants of food insecurity in Somalia: a secondary cross-sectional analysis of a National survey. Journal of Health, Population and Nutrition, 44(1), 1-11. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41043-025-01078-9
Abdullahi, A. M., Nor, F. I., & Abdullahi, A. M. (2024). Climate-induced humanitarian crisis, assessing the impact of recent floods and disease outbreaks in Somalia. Annals of Medicine and Surgery, 86(7), 3806-3807. http://dx.doi.org/10.1097/MS9.0000000000002139
Aday, S., & Aday, M. S. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 on the food supply chain. Food Quality and Safety, 4(4), 167–180. https://doi.org/10.1093/fqsafe/fyaa024
Ahmed, A. H., & Ali, I. I. (2024). The impact of drought on food security in Somalia: A comprehensive review. Current Research in Environmental Science & Eco Letters, 1(2), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.36937/cresecol.2024.010201
Ahmed, M. M., Asowe, H. A., Dirie, N. I., Mohamud, A. K., Lucero-Prisno, D. E. III, Okesanya, O. J., Ogaya, J. B., Musa, S. S., Musa, M. K., Othman, Z. K., & Shomuyiwa, D. (2024). The nexus of climate change, food insecurity, and conflict in Somalia: A comprehensive analysis of multifaceted challenges and resilience strategies. F1000Research, 13, 913. https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.152258.1
Ali, A., Hashi, A. A., & Ali, M. H. (2025). Spatiotemporal variability of meteorological droughts and pasture resilience in Somalia. Discover Sustainability, 6(1), 260. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-01530-0
Anisa, H. (2021). The influence of political instability on environmental governance at the Horn of Africa: A case study of Somalia (Doctoral dissertation, University of Nairobi). University of Nairobi Repository.
Bakonyi, J. (2010). Between protest, revenge and material interests: A phenomenological analysis of looting in the Somali war. Disasters, 34(s1), S238–S255. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7717.2010.01162.x
Bareisaite, A., Aga, G., & Ahad, T. (2021, January 13). Coronavirus and fragility: The impact of COVID-19 on Somalia’s private sector. World Bank. https://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/coronavirus-and-fragility-impact-covid-19-somalias-private-sector
Cardwell, R., & Ghazalian, P. L. (2020). COVID-19 and international food assistance: Policy proposals to keep food flowing. World Development, 135, 105059. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.105059
Dallmann, D., Marquis, G. S., Colecraft, E. K., & Dodoo, N. D. (2023). Marital transition is associated with food insecurity, low dietary diversity, and overweight in a female population in rural Ghana. African Journal of Food, Agriculture, Nutrition and Development, 23(1), 22149–22171. https://doi.org/10.18697/ajfand.117.22976
Damei, M. Y. (2023). Food insecurity in Somalia: A systematic review on causes and consequences. Journal of Research in Business and Management, 11(11), 41–49.
Devereux, S. (2021). Social protection responses to COVID-19 in Africa. Global Social Policy, 21(3), 421–447. https://doi.org/10.1177/14680181211032755
Dirie, K. A., Maamor, S., & Alam, M. M. (2024). Impacts of climate change in post-conflict Somalia: Is the 2030 Agenda for SDGs endangered? World Development Perspectives, 35, 100598. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wdp.2024.100598
Gumucio, T., Greatrex, H., & Lentz, E. (2022). Causal chains linking weather hazards to disasters in Somalia. Weather, Climate, and Society, 14(3), 849–860. https://doi.org/10.1175/WCAS-D-21-0090.1
Harris, E. (2023). Drought caused 43,000 deaths in Somalia in 2022, half among children. JAMA, 329(15), 1249. https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2023.4310
Hassan, A. O., & Abdulle, A. S. (2025). Investigating the nexus between unemployment and food insecurity in Somalia. Discover Sustainability, 6, 1377. https://doi.org/10.1007/s43621-025-02393-1
Hussein, M., Law, C., & Fraser, I. (2021). An analysis of food demand in a fragile and insecure country: Somalia as a case study. Food Policy, 101, 102092. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2021.102092
Hussein, S. A., Osman, M. M., Abdulle, Y. S., Hussein, A. A., Afrah, T. A., Mohamed, A. H., Adem, R., Hayle, A. A., Ali, A. N., Mohamud, M. F. Y., & Ali, A. A. (2025). The human cost of drought—Children at risk: A call to action for Somalia. Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness, 19, e120. https://doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2025.120
Hussein, S. A., Osman, M. M., Abdulle, Y. S., Hussein, A. A., Afrah, T. A., Mohamed, A. H., Adem, R., Hayle, A. A., Ali, A. N., Mohamud, M. F. Y., & Ali, A. A. (2025). The human cost of drought—Children at risk: A call to action for Somalia. Disaster Medicine and Public Health Preparedness, 19, e120. https://doi.org/10.1017/dmp.2025.120
Jamil, S., Mohammadnezhad, M., & Muhammad, F. (2025). Can Somalia avert a food security catastrophe? The Lancet, 405(10492), 1814. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(25)00814-0
Khan, I., Ullah, W., Karami, A., Qazi, I., & Ahamad, I. (2023). Analyze the socioeconomic consequences of locust outbreaks on agriculture, rural communities, and food security. Indus Journal of Animal and Plant Sciences, 1(1), 14–20.
Kinyoki, D. K., Moloney, G. M., Uthman, O. A., Kandala, N. B., Odundo, E. O., & Noor, A. M. (2017). Conflict in Somalia: Impact on child undernutrition. BMJ Global Health, 2(2), e000262. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjgh-2016-000262
Kotikula, A., Pournik, M., & Yoshimura, K. (2021). Somalia (No. 36767). The World Bank Group. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/367671
Lin, T. K., Kafri, R., Hammoudeh, W., Mitwalli, S., Jamaluddine, Z., Ghattas, H., Giacaman, R., & Leone, T. (2022). Pathways to food insecurity in the context of conflict: The case of the occupied Palestinian territory. Conflict and Health, 16(1), 38. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13031-022-00464-4
Matsuura Kannari, M., Luh, Y.-H., & Islam, A. H. M. S. (2023). Weather shocks, livelihood diversification, and household food security: Empirical evidence from rural Bangladesh. Agricultural Economics, 54(4), 455–470. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.12776
Mayhew, L., Alasia, I. J., Opitz-Stapleton, S., Dagane, I. A., Mbeche, I., Abdi, M., Sheik, S. Y. N., Harir, A. M., Hassan, A. S., & Egemonye, O. (2023). Somalia: Drought and rising costs take hold. SPARC Issue Brief. Overseas Development Institute. https://odi.org/en/publications/somalia-drought-and-rising-costs-take-hold
Mengistu, S. W., & Kassie, A. W. (2022). Household-level determinants of food insecurity in rural Ethiopia. Journal of Food Quality, 2022(1), 3569950. https://doi.org/10.1155/2022/3569950
Mohamed, J., Abdi, M. J., Mohamed, A. I., Muhumed, M. A., Abdeeq, B. A., Abdi, A. A., Abdilahi, M. M., & Ali, D. A. (2024). Predicting the short and long-term effects of food price inflation, armed conflicts, and climate variability on global acute malnutrition in Somalia. Journal of Health, Population and Nutrition, 43(1), 68. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41043-024-00468-9
Mugera, H. K., & Yoshimura, K. (2023). The toll of drought on displaced and vulnerable persons in Somalia. World Bank–UNHCR Joint Data Center on Forced Displacement. https://www.jointdatacenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/THE-TOLL-OF-DROUGHT-ON-DISPLACED-AND-VULNERABLE-PERSONS-IN-SOMALIA.pdf
Muse, N. M., Tayfur, G., & Sadegh Safari, M. J. (2023). Meteorological drought assessment and trend analysis in Puntland Region of Somalia. Sustainability, 15(13), 10654. https://doi.org/10.3390/su151310654
Musei, S. K., Nyaga, J. M., & Dubow, A. Z. (2021). SPEI-based spatial and temporal evaluation of drought in Somalia. Journal of Arid Environments, 184, 104296. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jaridenv.2020.104296
Nasteho, M. G. (2016). Unemployment and poverty in Puntland Somalia (Doctoral dissertation, Kampala International University, College of Economics and Management).
Nor, M. I. (2025). Exploring Somalia's worsening climate-induced humanitarian crisis during the 2024 Deyr season drought: Building resilience amidst adversity. SSRN. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5081527
Oberg, C., Hodges, H., & Masten, A. S. (2021). Risk and resilience of Somali children in the context of climate change, famine, and conflict. Journal of Applied Research on Children: Informing Policy for Children at Risk, 12(1), 10.
Odongo, R. A., Schrieks, T., Streefkerk, I., de Moel, H., Busker, T., Haer, T., MacLeod, D., Michaelides, K., Singer, M., Assen, M., & Otieno, G. (2025). Drought impacts and community adaptation: Perspectives on the 2020–2023 drought in East Africa. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 119, 105309. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2025.105309
Omar, A. A., Hassan, S. M., & Mohamed, M. J. (2022). Drought effects in Somalia and solution proposals. African Journal of Climate Change and Resource Sustainability, 1(1), 13–25.
Omar, A. O., Alasow, A. A., Farah, A. A., & Shahid, S. (2024). Spatiotemporal analysis of agricultural drought severity and hotspots in Somaliland. International Journal of Sustainable Development & Planning, 19(11), 1805–1817. https://doi.org/10.18280/ijsdp.191112
Oyekale, A. S., & Molelekoa, T. C. (2025). Impacts of income shocks and social protection on rural households’ food insecurity experiences during the COVID-19 pandemic in conflict-affected states in Northern Nigeria. Social Economics, 70, 27–46. https://doi.org/10.26565/2524-2547-2025-70-03
Poole, D. N., Escudero, D. J., Gostin, L. O., Leblang, D., & Talbot, E. A. (2020). Responding to the COVID-19 pandemic in complex humanitarian crises. International Journal for Equity in Health, 19(1), 41. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12939-020-01163-5
Said, M., & Bashir, A. (2023). Analysis of climate change impacts on food security in Somalia. International Journal of Media and Networks, 1(1), 101–107.
Salvador, C., Nieto, R., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., García-Herrera, R., Gimeno, L., & Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (2023). Public health implications of drought in a climate change context: A critical review. Annual Review of Public Health, 44(1), 213–232. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-publhealth-071421-041905
Thalheimer, L., Gaupp, F., & Webersik, C. (2023). Systemic risk and compound vulnerability impact pathways of food insecurity in Somalia. Climate Risk Management, 42, 100570. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2023.100570
Xu, Z., Elomri, A., El Omri, A., Kerbache, L., & Liu, H. (2021). The compounded effects of COVID-19 pandemic and desert locust outbreak on food security and food supply chain. Sustainability, 13(3), 1063. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13031063
Zhao, H., Andreyeva, T., & Sun, X. (2024). Food security and health outcomes following gray divorce. Nutrients, 16(5), 633. https://doi.org/10.3390/nu16050633
Ziliak, J. P. (2021). Food hardship during the COVID‐19 pandemic and Great Recession. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 43(1), 132–152. https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13099
Published
2025-12-31
How to Cite
Oyekale, A. S. (2025). IMPACTS OF DROUGHT AND INCOME SHOCKS ON SEVERE HUNGER IN SOMALIA DURING COVID-19: A POTENTIAL OUTCOME APPROACH USING POISSON REGRESSION. Social Economics, (72). Retrieved from https://periodicals.karazin.ua/soceconom/article/view/28158
Section
ECONOMICS
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
