Geospatial analysis of the impact of hostilities on the condition of the Dibrivsky and Novopavlivsky forest reserves (based on data from 2024-2025)

Abstract

The purpose of the article is to conduct a geospatial analysis and comprehensive assessment of the environmental impact of military activity on the forest ecosystems of the Dibrivsky and Novopavlivsky nature reserves (Dnipropetrovsk region). The study aims to determine the extent of damage and degradation of forest cover in the period 2024–2025 using remote sensing methods, which are currently the only safe source of objective data on the state of territories where active hostilities are taking place.

Main content. The study used a method of comparative analysis of multispectral satellite images from Sentinel-2 for October 2024 and 2025. To identify changes, the difference values of spectral indices were calculated and classified: the normalised burn ratio (NBR) to detect pyrogenic damage and the normalised vegetation index (NDVI) to estimate biomass.

The results were validated by comparing them with NASA FIRMS thermal anomaly archive data and DeepStateMAP combat maps. Geoinformation analysis showed that, as of the end of 2025, 66.5% of forest areas were in a state of critical ecological stress. The specifics of the damage were identified: the NBR index recorded the absence of areas of complete burnout (class 5 was 0%) and the predominance of low damage (49.5%), indicating the local nature of ground fires. At the same time, the NDVI index reflected a large-scale suppression of the physiological state of vegetation. It was established that the area of physical destruction of the biocenosis (craters, fortifications, epicentres of explosions) accounts for only 1.2% of the total territory.

Conclusions. The results of the study confirmed that the key factor in the degradation of the studied PZF objects is the cumulative effect of combat operations (the action of shock waves, damage to tree bark by debris, the movement of heavy equipment), and not just the direct pyrogenic effect. The absence of total destruction of the tree stand indicates the potential for natural restoration of ecosystems after the demilitarisation of territories. The use of a combination of NBR and NDVI spectral indices has proven effective for remote recording of environmental damage and monitoring of biodiversity in conditions of military action.