Characteristics of the contemporary spatiotemporal distribution of atmospheric precipitation in the southern and southeastern parts of the Greater Caucasus region

Abstract

Problem definition. Currently, global warming, which is being observed on Earth, continues to show its numerous effects in the South Caucasus, as in all other regions. In the region, along with rising air temperatures, a number of climatic elements are changing their long-term patterns. One of the atmospheric phenomena most affected by climate change is precipitation. The article analyzes the modern spatiotemporal variations of atmospheric precipitation in the southern and southeastern parts of the Greater Caucasus region.

Formulation of the purpose. In previous studies, although the spatiotemporal distribution of atmospheric precipitation was determined, such research did not cover recent periods. This study was conducted to identify the effects of modern climate change on the spatiotemporal distribution of atmospheric precipitation in the southern and southeastern parts of the Greater Caucasus region. For this purpose, the distribution of precipitation indicators across months, seasons, years, and the Earth's surface, as well as their long-term trends, have been determined.

Research methods. The analysis utilized observational data on atmospheric precipitation collected from the hydrometeorological stations of Zaqatala, Oghuz, Shaki, Ismayilli, Shamakhi, Gabala, Gobustan, Saribash, and Alibay over the period from 1961 to 2023. The research was conducted using modern mathematical-statistical, physical, cartographic methods, and GIS technology. In the study, the analysis of extreme atmospheric precipitation events was conducted for the period 1961-2023 due to the probability of their recurrence, while the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of precipitation (monthly, seasonal, annual, and surface-based) were examined during the modern climate change period, specifically from 1991 to 2023.

The main material. During the analysis, it was determined that the average long-term amount of atmospheric precipitation in the southern and southeastern parts of the Greater Caucasus region is 816 mm. Of the total annual precipitation in the region, 56% occurs during the warm period, while 44% falls during the cold period. In general, across this part of the region, the amount of precipitation decreases from higher elevations to lowlands and from the northwest to the southeast.

Conclusions. In the study area, a decrease in precipitation amounts is observed in all months except January, March, and May. The reduction in precipitation during the spring and summer months is particularly detrimental to the development of agricultural crops, as it coincides with their vegetation period. The precipitation in the region predominantly exhibits a recurrence of 120 mm or higher. The results of the research can be utilized for the establishment of new agricultural fields, the compilation of maps, economic assessments, and the development of mitigation measures against climate change.