Preparation of future development scenarios of urban landscapes in accordance with natural and socio-economic conditions (on the example of the cities of the Kura-Araz lowland)
Abstract
Problems Statement and Purpose. More than 50% of the world's population lives in cities. In Azerbaijan, 53% of the population lives in cities. For this reason, almost all global problems originate from urban landscapes. Therefore, it is very important to study the development of cities and prepare the future scenario. Our goal is to study the cities located in the Kura-Araz plain, determine their annual growth rate and forecast future development trends.
Data and Methods. In the article, the development of 17 cities located in the Kur-Araz plain in the central part of Azerbaijan during the historical period and its future forecast were analyzed. Modern methods were especially preferred during the research. Satellite images of cities were processed and the results were analyzed. Satellite images from 1975 and 2023 were used and deciphered in determining the boundaries of cities and studying their dynamics. The dynamics of changes in the areas of the cities were studied by determining the boundaries of the cities, and the dynamics of population growth was studied and analyzed. Statistical analyzes were used in the study of the population.
Results and Discussion. The cities of Kura-Araz lowland cover 25% of the cities of the republic. These rivers are the main source of the formation of cities. However, as these coastal cities grew, the ecological problems of the Kura and Araz rivers increased and the water level decreased. Cities have grown in all directions and are still growing. For the first time in Azerbaijan, urban landscapes were studied based on GIS technologies and Remote Sensing methods. For the first time, the factors of natural conditions, the absolute height, inclination and exposure of the terrain were analyzed based on GIS technologies, and it was determined that 2/3 of the research area is located below sea level, and 1/3 is located in areas up to a maximum of 200 m absolute height. The inclination of the area continues up to a maximum of 5⁰. Cities have been classified in different directions.
Conclusion. For the first time, issues of territorial management of urban landscapes were conducted and mapped on the basis of GIS technologies. At this time, it was determined that cities have grown more than 2 times during 1975-2023. However, this increase cannot be compared with the dynamics of population growth. Because during these years, the population growth has varied between 10-30%. Urban landscapes have grown mainly in riverside areas, along transport routes.
Downloads
References
Amanova, S. (2023). Basic construction-ecological norms in urban systems and ecogeographic consequences of sustainable development of urban areas (in Sabirabad city representation). Journal of Geology, Geography and Geoecology, 32(3), 441-449. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.15421/112339
Соколов, В., Удалов, І., & Кононенко, А. (2021). Performance of special engineering and geological researches in the territories of industrial and urban agglomerations. Visnyk of V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, Series "Geology. Geography. Ecology", (54), 106-116. https://doi.org/10.26565/2410-7360-2021-54-08 [in Ukrainian]
Hajiyeva G.N., Eyyubova Z.İ. (2019). The role of climatic factors in the pollution of the atmosphere of Sumgayit and surrounding areas. Scientific works of Nakhchivan State University, "Natural and medical sciences" series, 2(100), 182-187. https://ndu.edu.az/public/wp-content/uploads/Elmi%20Eserler/100%20tebiet%202019.pdf
Hajiyeva A.Z., Garibov Y.A. (2016). Study of the pasture-hayfield transformation of natural landscapes in the south-eastern slope of Greater Caucasus and relevant risks and dangers through special observation squares. Journal Massachusetts Review of Science and Technologies, 1(13), 253-259.
Havryliuk, O. (2021). Differential and non-differential urbanization in Ukraine during the soviet and post-soviet era. Visnyk of V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, Series "Geology. Geography. Ecology", (55), 141-158. https://doi.org/10.26565/2410-7360-2021-55-11 [in Ukrainian]
Hesse, M. (2008). Planning cities for the future: The successes and failures of urban economic strategies in Europe. Growth and Change, 39(3), 534-536. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1435-5957.2009.00250.x
Кізілова, Н., Ричак, Н., Чебукін, Д., & Лукієнко, М. (2021). Ecological assessment of surface water quality in a rainless period under the conditions of urban water collection. Visnyk of V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, Series "Geology. Geography. Ecology", (54), 289-305. https://doi.org/10.26565/2410-7360-2021-54-22 [in Ukrainian]
López de Lucio, R. (2003). Transformaciones territo riales recientes en la región urbana de Madrid (Recent territorial changes in the urban region of Madrid). Urban, 8, 124-161. https://oa.upm.es/45362/1/Lucio_transformaciones.pdf
Нестеренко, В. (2021). The rivers in Kharkiv urban space: the history of interaction between nature and society (second half of the XVIIth - early XXIth century). Visnyk of V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, Series "Geology. Geography. Ecology", (54), 224-239. https://doi.org/10.26565/2410-7360-2021-54-17 [in Ukrainian]
Provotar, N., Olishevska, Y., Mezentsev, K., & Kravchenko, K. (2021). Street art in urban space: location and perception in Ukrainian cities. Visnyk of V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, Series "Geology. Geography. Ecology", (55), 216-231. https://doi.org/10.26565/2410-7360-2021-55-16 [in Ukrainian]
Rossi, U. (2004). The multiplex city. The process of urban change in the historic centre district of Naples. European Urban and Regional Studies, 11(2), 156-169, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0969776404041421
Serohin, D., & Kostrikov, S. (2023). Towards urbanistic geosituation delineation. Visnyk of V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, Series "Geology. Geography. Ecology", (58), 241-256. https://doi.org/10.26565/2410-7360-2023-58-19
Sgambati, S.; Gargiulo, C. (2022). The evolution of urban competitiveness studies over the past 30 years. A bibliometric analysis. Cities, 128, 103811, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2022.103811
Shariff, N.M. (2012). Private vehicle ownership and transportation planning in Malaysia. In International Conference on Traffic and Transportation Engineering (ICTTE); IACSIT Press: Singapore, Volume 64, 68, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899X/917/1/012040
Sharifi, A. (2020). Sharifi Urban resilience assessment: Mapping knowledge structure and trends. Sustainability, 12 (15), 5918.
Shasha Xu, Weijun He, Liang Yuan, Dagmawi Mulugeta Degefu,Yang Yang and Hua Li (2021). The Relationship between Coordination Degree of the Water–Energy–Food System and Regional Economic Development. Sustainability, 13(3), 1305, DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su13031305
Shen, Q. Shen, W. Zeng, Y. Ye, S.M. Arisona, S. Schubiger, R. Burkhard, (2018). StreetVizor: Visual exploration of human-scale urban forms based on street views. IEEE Transactions on Visualization and Computer Graphics, 24 (1), 1004-1013, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/TVCG.2017.2744159
Suryanto, T.; Haseeb, M.; Hartani, N.H. (2018). The correlates of developing green supply chain management practices: Firms level analysis in Malaysia. Int. J. Supply Chain. Management, 7, 316, https://doi.org/10.3390/su14063362
Song, M.; Xie, Q. (2021). Evaluation of urban Competitiveness of the Huaihe River eco-economic belt based on dynamic factor analysis. Comput. Econ., 58, 615–639, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10614-019-09952-5
Teddy-Ang and Toh, S. (2020). Singapore: Empowering a smart nation. Communications of the ACM, 63 (4), 60-63.
Tékouabou, S.C.K.; Chenal, J.; Azmi, R.; Toulni, H.; Diop, E.B.; Nikiforova, A. (2022). Identifying and Classifying Urban Data Sources for Machine Learning-Based Sustainable Urban Planning and Decision Support Systems Development. Data, 7, 170. https://doi.org/10.3390/data7120170
Tomarchio, L. (2019). Mapping human landscapes in Muscat, Oman, with social media data. Arab gulf cities in transition: Towards new spatialities, 68-105, https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000339868
Wang et al., L. Wang, X. Chen, Y. Xia, L. Jiang, J. Ye, T. Hou, L. Wang, Y. Zhang, M. Li, Z. Li. (2022). Operational data-driven intelligent modelling and visualization system for real-world, on-road vehicle emissions—a case study in Hangzhou city, China. Sustainability, 14 (9), 5434, DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su14095434
Wang, B.; Xie, H.L.; Ren, H.Y.; Li, X.; Chen, L.; Wu, B.C. (2019). Application of AHP, TOPSIS, and TFNs to plant selection for phytoremediation of petroleum-contaminated soils in shale gas and oil fields. J. Clean. Prod., 233, 13–22, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.05.301
Wanping Yang, Zhenya Zhang, Yajuan Wang, Peidong Deng and Luyao Guo. (2022). Impact of China’s Provincial Government Debt on Economic Growth and Sustainable Development. Sustainability, 14(3), 1474, DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/su14031474
Weichselgartner and Kelman, J. Weichselgartner, I. Kelman. (2014). Challenges and opportunities for building urban resilience. A/Z ITU Journal of the Faculty of Architecture, 11 (1), 20-35, https://www.preventionweb.net/files/62657_05weichselgartnerkelman1101.pdf
Wurm, M.; Droin, A.; Stark, T.; Geiß, C.; Sulzer, W.; Taubenböck, H. (2021). Deep learning-based generation of building stock data from remote sensing for urban heat demand modeling. ISPRS Int. J. Geo-Inf., 10, 23, DOI: https://doi.org/10.3390/ijgi10010023
Xiao and Cao, L. Xiao, H. Cao. (2017). Organizational resilience: The theoretical model and research implication. Proceedings of the ITM web of conferences, EDP Sciences, 04021, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1051/itmconf/20171204021
Zhan, X.; Zheng, Y.; Yi, X.; Ukkusuri, S.V. (2016). Citywide traffic volume estimation using trajectory data. IEEE Trans. Knowl. Data Eng., 29, 272–285, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1109/TKDE.2016.2621104
Zhou, J., Zhou, P. Jiang, J. Yang, X. Liu. (2021). Designing a smart incentive-based recycling system for household recyclable waste. Waste Manag., 123, 142-153, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2021.01.030
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
