Nature of current and assessment of possible future changes in the water regime of lake Lebedyne (Sumy region)
Abstract
Aim of the research is to identify the characteristic features of modern and predictive assessment until 2030 possible changes in the water regime of the Lake Lebedyne.
Methods of the research – water balance method (to clarify the nature of modern changes in the water exchange of the lake), pairwise and multiple correlation methods (for statistical analysis of relationships between hydro-meteorological variables).
Scientific novelty – for the first time the analysis of modern changes in the water exchange of the Lake Lebedyne by comparing the components of the lake's water balance for two periods - modern (1991-2019) with the period of the climatic norm (1961-1990); for the first time estimated for the next decade (2021-2030) changes in the water regime of Lake Lebedyne.
Practical value is determined by the fact that the main provisions of this scientific research will be used when discussing a project to improve the state of Lake Lebedyne, which was provided for by the Program of Economic and Social Development of the city of Lebedin for 2020-2021 program years.
Research results. It was revealed that the total volume of water inflow into the lake in the modern period (1991-2019) has decreased (compared to the period of the climatic norm - 1961-1990) by almost 16%. Of these, the inflow of water from the area adjacent to the lake (slope runoff) decreased by 17.8%, and the amount of atmospheric precipitation on the lake's surface by 11.7% also decreased. There is a decrease in the absolute volume of evaporation from the water surface of Lake Lebedyne due to a decrease in the volume of water inflow. However, at the same time, against the background of an increase in air temperature, the intensity of evaporation increases - its share in the water-balance ratios increased by 8.3% compared to the period of the climatic norm. Evaluating the accumulative component of the lake's water balance, it can be stated that during the period of climatic normal there was a certain accumulation of water in the lake - on average by + 22130 m3 annually. In the modern period, the volume of water in the lake was depleted - on average for the period 1991-2019 by - 81200 m3 per year. As a result, the volume of water in the lakebed in the modern period has decreased by about 40-42% compared to the period of the climatic norm. According to the forecast estimates of the values of the total water inflow into the lake Lebedyne for the period 2021-2030 it can be assumed that in comparison with the previous decade, they will grow by an average of 18%. Therefore, with a certain stabilization of the evaporation values, one can expect an insignificant, but nevertheless, replenishment of the lake with water.
Downloads
References
Galushchenko, N. G. (Ed.). (1987). Hydrological and water balance calculations. Kyiv: Vishcha shkola, 171-221 [in Russian].
Doganovsky, A.M., Orlov, V. G. (2011). Collection of tasks to determine the main characteristics of water bodies on land (workshop on hydrology): Textbook. St. Petersburg: Publishing house of the Russian State Hydrometeoro-logical University, 197-226 [in Russian].
Khilchevsky, V.K., Obodovsky, O. G., etc. (2008). Regional Hydrology. Kyiv: Publishing and printing center «Kyiv University», 179-187 [in Ukrainian].
Largest lakes on Earth may soon disappear – scientists. URL: https://zn.ua/TECHNOLOGIES/krupneyshie-ozera-na-zemle-vskore-mogut-ischeznut-uchenye-206398_.html [in Russian].
The largest lakes on Earth are disappearing due to climate change. URL: https://wz.lviv.ua/news/162835-naibilshi-ozera-zemli-znykaiut-cherez-zminy-klimatu [in Ukrainian].
Sikan, A. V. (2007). Methods of statistical processing of hydrometeorological information. Textbook. St. Peters-burg: Publishing house of the Russian State Hydrometeorological University, 136-167 [in Russian].
Khilchevskyi, V.K., Zabokrytska, M.R. (2020). Main aspects of the morphometry and hydrochemistry of Shatsk Lakes. Hydrology, Hydrochemistry and Hydroecology, 3(58), 92-100. https://doi.org/10.17721/2306-5680.2020.3.9 [in Ukrainian].
Will Shatsky lakes with water: calculations and forecasts of the expert. URL: http://www.volynpost.com/articles/1887-chy-budut-shacki-ozera-z-vodoyu-pidrahunky-i-prognozy-eksperta [in Ukrainian].
Chornomorets, Yu. O., Lukianets, O. I. (2019). Influence of modern changes in the ratio of snow and rain supply of rivers on the structure of water balance of their basins (on the example of the river basin of Vorskla). Hydrology, hydrochemistry and hydroecology, 4 (55). 40-52. DOI: https://doi.org/10.17721/2306-5680.2019.4.3 [in Ukraini-an].
ALTERNATIVE ENVIRONMENTAL PLATFORM-2020 «ECO-MODERNIZATION» Block "Protection of water and land resources". URL: https://appau.org.ua/publications/alternative-environmental-platform-2020-eco-modernization/ [in Ukrainian].
Chomko, D., Koshliakov, O., Dyniak, O. and Koshliakova, I. (2020). Determination of the underground component of the water balance of lake Lebedyne (Sumy region) in the context of prospects for the restoration of its water constitution and the project. Conference Proceedings, XIV International Scientific Conference «Monitoring of Geological Processes and Ecological Condition of the Environment», European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3997/2214-4609.202056092.
Lukianets, O. and Grebin, V. (2020). Water balance of lake Lebedyne in modern climatic conditions. Conference Proceedings, XIV International Scientific Conference «Monitoring of Geological Processes and Ecological Con-dition of the Environment», European Association of Geoscientists & Engineers. DOI: https://doi.org/10.3997/2214-4609.202056026.6.
WMO Media Centre (2015). New Two-Tier approach on «climate normal». UPL: https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/new-two-tier-approach-climate-normals.
WMO (2007). The role of climatological normals in a changing climate. World Climate Data and Monitoring Pro-gramme. 61, WMO-TD. 1377.
Kuusisto, Esko; Hyvärinen, Veli (2000). Hydrology of Lakes. In Pertti Heinonen (ed.). Hydrological and Limnolog-ical Aspects of Lake Monitoring. John Wiley & Sons. pp. 4–5. ISBN 978-0-470-51113-8.
Wetzel, Robert (2001). Limnology: Lake and river ecosystems. San Diego: Academic Press. 1006 p. ISBN 9780127447605.
Cohen, A. S. (2003). Paleolimnology: The History and Evolution of Lake Systems. New York: Oxford University Press. ISBN 978-0-19-513353-0.
Appelo, C. A. J., & Postma, D. (2005). Geochemistry, Groundwater and Pollution (p. 649). The Netherlands: A.A. Balkema Publishers. https://doi.org/10.1201/9781439833544
Balistrieri, L. S., Tempel, R. N., Stillings, L. L., & Shevenell, L. A. (2006). Modeling Spatial and Temporal Varia-tions in Temperature and Salinity during Stratification and Overturn in Dexter Pit Lake, Tuscarora, Nevada, USA. Applied Geochemistry, 21, 1184-1203.
Muvundja, A.F., Pasche, N., Bugenyi, W.B.F., Isumbisho, M., Müller, B., Namugize, J.P., Rinta, P., Schmid, M., Stier-li, R. and Wüest, A. (2009) Balancing Nutrient Inputs to Lake Kivu. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 35, 406-418. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jglr.2009.06.002
Rzętała, Mariusz; Jagus, Andrzej (May 2011). New lake district in Europe: Origin and hydrochemical characteris-tics. Water and Environment Journal. 26 (1): 108-117. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1747-6593.2011.00269.x
Sterner, R.W., Keeler, B., Polasky, S., Poudel, R., Rhude, K. and Rogers, M. (2020). Ecosystem Services of Earth’s Largest Freshwater Lakes. Ecosystem Services, 41, Article ID: 101046. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2019.101046
