The forecasting of water runoff of the Styr river for the coming years

  • Людмила Горбачова Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
  • Борис Христюк Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
Keywords: water flow, commensurability method, long-term forecasting, wet year, dry year


Formulation of the problem. The water flow of the Styr River is using for the needs of industry, agriculture and the population. Thus, forecasting the water flow of this river for the future is an important scientific and practical task. The hydrological forecasts that have a lead time of one year, two years, or a decade are not as reliable as they need to be. Now in the world this problem is not solved. Along with quantitative forecasting methods, the qualitative methods have also been developed. The method of commensurability refers to such methods. It was developed by Chinese geophysicist Weng Wen-Bo in 1984. The commensurability method supports prediction of various natural phenomena, including floods and other dangerous events. The objective of this paper is to use the Weng Wen-Bo method for long-term water flow forecasting of the Styr River at Lutsk city.

Methods. The commensurability method uses the dates on which natural phenomena (earthquakes, floods, droughts, etc.) were observed. For this reason, it has been called the information method. It is characterized by simplicity of calculation, graphical visualization, the use of researcher intuition and minimum needs for input information. There are several ways of forecasting using the method of commensurability. This paper is used a method of forecasting by two-dimensional commensurability graphs. Such approach consists in the determining the commensurability values in the dates array of certain phenomena occurrence and creating a two-dimensional graph of commensurability, according to which forecasting occurs. The use of such a method allows determining the years that may be wet and dry in the near future.

Results. The data of observations at the hydrological station of the Styr River - Lutsk city for the period 1923-2017 are used in the paper. The results of the study on the commensurability method show that the water flow of the river Styr in 2020-2021 should be more than the norm and in 2023-2024 - less than the norm.

Scientific novelty and practical significance. In Ukraine the commensurability method was used for the first time for long-term forecasting of water flow for coming years. The estimating of the effectiveness of forecasting by the commensurability method requires an array of long-term forecasts. Therefore, the next step of the study should be to forecast of water flow on different rivers, but provided that they have the long series of observation.

The results of the long-term forecasting will enable the relevant services the negative consequences of a hydrological phenomenon, such as low water flow or floods on rivers will prevent.


Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Людмила Горбачова, Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

DSc (Geography), Head of the Department of Hydrological Researches

Борис Христюк, Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

PhD (Geography), Head of the Laboratory of Hydrological Calculations


WMO (World Meteorological Organization) (2009). Guide to Hydrological Practices, Vol. II, Management of Wa-ter Resources and Application of Hydrological Practices, sixth edition, WMO-No. 168, World Meteorological Or-ganization, Geneva, Switzerland.

Zhu T., Marques G., Medellin-Azuara J. and Lund J. (2020). Water Management and Transfers Optimization with Probabilistic Seasonal Forecasts. EGU General Assembly 2020, Online, 4-8 May 2020, EGU2020-20981.

Anghileri, D., Voisin N., Castelletti A., Pianosi F., Nijssen B., and Lettenmaier D.P. (2016). Value of long-term streamflow forecasts to reservoir operations for water supplyin snow-dominated river catchments. Water Resour. Res., 52, 4209-4225

Pekárová P., Miklánek P., Pekár J. (2007). Long-term Danube monthly discharge prognosis for the Bratislava sta-tion using stochastic models, Meteorologický časopis, 10, 211-218.

Peng Z., Zhang L., Yin J., Wang H. (2017). Commensurability-Based Flood Forecasting in Northeastern China. Pol. J. Environ. Stud., 26(6), 2689-2702

Shaw Elizabeth M., Beven Keith J., Chappell Nick A., Lamb Rob (2010). Hydrology in practice. Fourth Edition. CRC Press, 543.

Borys Khrystyuk (2014). The short-term forecast of the water levels in the Kiliya channel of the Danube River. En-ergetika, 60(1), 69-75 [in Russian]

Günter Blöschl (2006). Hydrologic synthesis: Across processes, places, and scales. Water Resources Research, 42(3), W03S02

Hongyan L., Yuxin W., Xiubin L. (2011). Mechanism and Forecasting Methods for Severe Droughts and Floods in Songhua River Basin in China. Chin. Geogra. Sci., 21(5), 531-542

Su Y.J. and Hu H. (2015). Application of Commensurability in Earthquake Prediction. International Journal of Geosciences, 6, 619-624

Borys Khrystiuk, Liudmyla Gorbachova, Pavla Pekárová, Pavol Miklánek (2020). Application of the commensura-bility method for long-term forecasting of the highest summer floods on the Danube River at Bratislava. Meteorol-ogy Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications, 8(1), 70-76

Borys Khrystiuk, Liudmyla Gorbachova (2019). Long-term forecasting of extraordinary spring floods by commen-surability method on the Dnipro River near Kyiv city, Ukraine. Environmental Research, Engineering and Man-agement, 75(2), 74-81

Shevchenko O.L., Grebin V.V., Osadchyy V.I., Charnyy D.Z., Shym I.P. (2019). Resources changes of groundwater and interstratum water in the conditions of global climate warming. Hidrolohiiа, hidrokhimiiа i hidroekolohiiа, 3(54), 90-91. [in Ukrainian]

Konovalenko O., Dutko V., Vasylenko E. (2012). Spatial distribution of maximal spring runoff of the Styr Basin Rivers. Hidrolohiiа, hidrokhimiiа i hidroekolohiiа, 1(26), 69-75. [in Ukrainian]

Nabyvanets Ya.B., Gorbachova L.O., Korneev V.N. (2010). High spring and rain floods in the Styr River basin. Proceedings of Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, 259, 217-230. [in Russian]

Kalinin М.Ya., Obodovskyy O.G. (eds.) (2003). Monitoring, use and management of water resources of the Pripyat basin. Mynsk, 269. [in Russian]

Vyshnevskyi V.I. (2000). Rivers and reservoirs of Ukraine. Condition and use. Kyiv, Vipol, 376. [in Ukrainian]

Weng W.B. (1984). Basis of Prediction Theory. Petroleum Industry Press, 45.

Standardization Administration of the People’s Republic of China (2009). GB/T 22484-2008, Standard for Hydro-logical Information and Hydrological Forecasting; Standards Press of China: Beijing, China.

Shakirzanova J. (2011) Forecasting of the maximum water flow of the spring flood in basin Dnieper with use of the automated program complexes. Hydrology, hydrochemistry, hydroecology, 4(25), 48-55. [in Ukrainian]

How to Cite
Горбачова, Л., & Христюк, Б. (2021). The forecasting of water runoff of the Styr river for the coming years. Visnyk of V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, Series "Geology. Geography. Ecology", (54), 155-163.