Method of probabilistic determining the actual number of cancer patients using statistical data
Abstract
Background: Experts in the field of oncology recognize that the chances of a complete cure for cancer grow if the disease can be identified at an early stage. But in order to identify the disease in the bud, it is necessary not to neglect the diagnostic examination that most citizens of our country ignore. Currently, cancer takes second place in the world after cardiovascular diseases in the list of other diseases. Ukraine is second in Europe in velocity of cancer propagation. Every year in Ukraine more than 160 thousand people learn that they are cancer patient. In fact, the number of such patients is much larger than statistically revealed. The urgency of the work is due to the need to develop a methodology for determining the actual number of cancer patients, which could improve the mechanisms of early detection of cancer and increase the number of cured patients.
Objective: To develop an approach to probabilistic determination of the actual oncological morbidity of the population on the basis of known statistical data on the overall mortality and the number of detected oncological patients.
Results: Using the probabilistic approach, the probability of death of individuals who already had undiagnosed oncological disease at a certain age was calculated first, but died as a result of non-cancer reasons. Further, a formula for calculating the actual oncological morbidity of an individual at a certain age was obtained. Using the statistical data on the total number of deaths and the number of detected cancer patients at a certain age, and using the abovementioned formula, a graph of the distribution of the actual number of cancer patients, depending on age, was obtained. This allowed us to calculate the ratio of the total actual number of oncological cancer patients to the total number of cancer patients. It was value 1.95, which indicates a significant excess of actual cancer morbidity over statistically detected.
Conclusions: A probabilistic approach to assessing the actual oncological morbidity based on the statistically revealed oncological morbidity and overall mortality is proposed. The performed calculations show that the indicators of the detected oncological morbidity are almost two times less than the actual number of cancer patients.
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References
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