ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE AS A PUBLIC MANAGEMENT CAPABILITY: INSTITUTIONAL DETERMINANTS OF ADMINISTRATIVE PERFORMANCE IN DIGITAL GOVERNANCE
Abstract
This study examines whether the adoption of national artificial intelligence (AI) strategies improves administrative performance in The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. AI is conceptualized not simply as a technological innovation but as a public management capability embedded in institutional governance systems. The research applies a sequential explanatory mixed-method design combining quantitative panel data analysis with qualitative institutional investigation.
The quantitative analysis covers 38 OECD countries for the period 2016–2023. Administrative performance is measured using the Government Effectiveness indicator from the Worldwide Governance Indicators database. AI adoption is operationalized through a policy-based coding procedure that identifies the official year of national AI strategy adoption and constructs a time-varying binary variable. A fixed effects panel regression model is estimated to control for time-invariant country characteristics. GDP per capita (log-transformed), regulatory quality, and digital infrastructure are included as control variables.
The findings demonstrate a positive and statistically significant association between AI strategy adoption and Government Effectiveness. However, the magnitude of the effect is modest compared to structural determinants such as regulatory quality and economic development. Digital infrastructure also shows a significant positive relationship with administrative performance. Robustness checks suggest that the benefits of AI institutionalization materialize gradually rather than immediately.
Qualitative evidence from Finland, Estonia, Germany, and Italy indicates that AI strategies enhance governance performance when supported by coherent regulation, inter-agency coordination, and digital maturity. The study concludes that AI contributes to administrative effectiveness as part of a broader institutional ecosystem rather than as a standalone technological reform.
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