Forecasting and analytical research of world economy development by international institutions: trends and overview
Abstract
The article identifies international institutions that create global economic forecasts. Such forecasts are plausible and do not aim to predict the future. The study analyzes long-term forecasts of different times, covering the periods up to 2020, 2030 and 2050. The main task of comprehensive long-term forecasting is to identify the risks and opportunities that carry key political and economic trends for each country and the world as a whole. At the present stage, the forecasting procedure has a purely individual character. The effectiveness of most international institutions remains low. This is due to limited financial resources, differences in ideological and political status.
The most well-known publications of the comprehensive long-term forecasting of the National Intelligence Council and the Atlantic Council of the United States are: a series of reports "Global Trends" - forecasts for 2025 and 2030. Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds explains the rapid and multifaceted transformations of geopolitical, economic and technological factors, as well as the trajectory of such transformations over the next 15-20 years. The UN and other international organizations, the United States, the European Union and China pay special attention to long-term forecasting. The first study in the series "The World in 2050" was published by the Department of Macroeconomic Analysis PricewaterhouseCoopers in 2006. The new report presents long-term forecasts of potential GDP growth rates until 2050 for the 32 largest countries in the world. The analysis and forecasts contained in the World Bank's Global Economic Prospects study are an integral part of the IMF. World rating agencies play a significant role in assessing the state of development of the world's largest companies. Analytical and forecasting research is an important element of scientific and technical development management. A brief overview of the experience of forecasting scientific and technical development is contained in the analytical report of the Research Center for Industrial Development Problems of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine.
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References
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