Probabilistic-automatic modeling of the balance sheet of foreign trade of Ukraine with EU countries in terms of goods

Abstract

Abstract. Ukraine carries out intensive trade in goods with EU countries. This is facilitated by a convenient geographical location, an extensive road network and other factors.

Problem statement. For planning the activities of enterprises, searching for external partners, as well as for forming the state’s foreign trade policy, it is advisable to analyze and forecast trade indicators, including by building simulation models.

Unresolved aspects. Given the gap in the use of probabilistic-automatic modeling in the field of studying Ukraine’s foreign trade with 27 EU countries both in general and in terms of countries, this article is designed to fill it.

Purpose of the article. The purpose of the article is to build a probabilistic-automatic model of the dynamics of the balance of export-import operations between Ukraine and EU countries in terms of goods.

Main material. The article defines the initial parameters of the model; forms a graph of connections between automatons; determines the structure of the alphabet matrix of the system; builds a system of functions of automatons’ outputs; a table of conditional functionals-transitions was formed; a vector of initial states of automatons was determined as actual data on foreign trade in goods between Ukraine and 27 EU countries in 2024; a system of distribution of independent random variables was constructed; simulation runs of the model were conducted using the Microsoft Excel program.

Conclusions. It is predicted that the balance sheet of Ukraine’s foreign trade with EU countries in terms of goods in 2025–2027 will be negative, that is, imports will exceed exports, but this difference will decrease annually.