Ukraine's public debt: current status and risks of formation

Abstract

The relevance of the study is determined by the difficult economic situation in Ukraine caused by military aggression, which has led to a rapid increase in public debt as a key source of financing for state needs.

Problem statement. The accumulation of debt obligations, changes in their currency structure and servicing conditions create significant risks for the financial stability of the state and its future economic development, which emphasises the need for a deep understanding of the peculiarities of public debt formation.

Unresolved aspects of the problem. The diversity of scientific concepts regarding the interpretation of the essence of public debt emphasises the complexity and multifaceted nature of this phenomenon and points to the need for a more in-depth study of the theoretical aspects and practical tools of public debt management in conditions of geopolitical instability.

Purpose of the article. The purpose of the study is to substantiate the theoretical foundations of public debt, analyse its formation in wartime and identify the main debt risks.

Presentation of the main material. The object of the study is the process of forming Ukraine's public debt. The study uses a set of scientific methods, including analysis of scientific publications by domestic and foreign scientists to reveal the theoretical essence of public debt, statistical analysis to assess the dynamics and structure of Ukraine's public debt for the period 2019-2024, as well as the construction of a multivariate regression model and the average growth rate method to forecast public debt volumes for the coming years. The theoretical basis of the study was the main provisions of the theory of finance and macroeconomics.

Conclusions. The results of the study demonstrate a rapid increase in Ukraine's public debt after the start of full-scale military aggression, which indicates a deterioration in the country's debt sustainability. Analysis of the structure of public debt revealed a significant increase in the share of external financing, which increases dependence on external creditors and raises currency risks. The main risks associated with the increase in public debt include refinancing risk and interest rate risk, as well as macroeconomic, fiscal, geopolitical, currency and social risks. The practical value of the study arises from deepening the understanding of current trends in the formation of Ukraine's public debt in conditions of military aggression and identifying threats to macro-financial stability. The results obtained can be used by state authorities to develop and implement effective debt policy.