Assessment of the quality of forecasts of seasonal fluctuations of budget revenues as part of effective management of public finances in Ukraine

Abstract

Seasonal fluctuations in revenues to the budgets of Ukraine at different levels can significantly affect the fulfillment of financial obligations of the state and territorial communities, especially in conditions of martial law. The accuracy of forecasting such fluctuations becomes critically important for the formation of a balanced budget policy and ensuring timely financing of priority state programs. The purpose of the article is to assess the quality of forecasts of seasonal fluctuations in budget revenues of different levels in Ukraine during martial law. The research is aimed at increasing the efficiency of financial management in the crisis, which, in turn, will contribute to strengthening the economic security and stability of Ukraine. It is a continuation of the authors' previous research.

Within the framework of the study, the actual indicators of receipts of the largest budget-forming taxes to the state budget of the Volyn region and to the local budgets of the Volyn region for January–May 2024 were analyzed and compared with previously obtained forecast data. To assess the quality of forecasts, a scale was used, according to which the accuracy of forecasts is ranked depending on the value of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the forecast as follows: high (<=10%), good (10.1–20%), satisfactory (20.1–40%), poor (40.1–50%), unsatisfactory (>50%).

It was found that during the analyzed period, the accuracy of forecasts of seasonal revenues to the state budget in the Volyn region for VAT from goods imported into the customs territory of Ukraine was good (the MAPE of forecasts was 18.8%); for customs duties on goods imported by business entities – satisfactory (28.2%); for personal income tax paid by tax agents from the taxpayer's income in the form of wages – high (6.4%); for excise tax on vehicles imported into the customs territory of Ukraine – satisfactory (39.5%).

It was determined that the accuracy of forecasts of seasonal revenues to the local budgets of the Volyn region for personal income tax paid by tax agents from the taxpayer's income in the form of wages was high (the MAPE of forecasts was 6.4%); for the single tax on individuals – satisfactory (25.0%); for land tax on legal entities – satisfactory (39.7%); for rent from legal entities – high (3.8%).