Natural and technogenic factors of radiological descriptions temporal changeability of water objects in the affected of Yuzhno-ukrainian AES zone
On the example of changing average monthly values of Sr-90 activity in the surface layer of South-Ukraine NPP cooling water reservoir Tashlyk measured during the period from January 2006 to September 2010 we studied the peculiarities of identification of multiple-regression models of similar processes that are robust to time shifts to 1-9 months in the future. In the reviewed process the arguments for such models are the anticipatory lines of changes of average monthly amounts of water pumped into the reservoir from the river Yuzhniy Bug, as well as monthly total amounts of recipitations falling out in the town of Yuzhnoukrainsk. Using such models we developed the forecast of changes of Sr-90 activity in the mentioned reservoir for the period from November 2010 to June 2011.
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