The modeling and forecasting of prevalence of dependence on psychoactive substances
Keywords:
psychoactive substances, alcoholism, drug addiction, model, forecast
Abstract
Based upon the approaches of population ecology the analysis of dynamics of proliferation of substance abuse in Ukraine was carried out. It is offered the modified model of Verhulst allowing to describe and predict mentioned above dynamics on the basis of available official data of medical statistics. By approximation of available statistical data numerical parameters of model are established and conclusions concerning the greatest possible number of alcohol and drugs addicted persons in Ukraine are drawn. Ways of the further development of the developed model taking into account all factors influencing process of proliferation of substance abuse are discussed.
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References
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2. Linskij I.V. Aktual'nye tendencii rasprostranenija zavisimosti ot psihoaktivnyh vewestv na Ukraine / I.V. Linskij, A.I. Minko, Je.B. Pervomajskij // Narkologija. – 2005. - №4. – S.12-17.
3. Koshkina E.A. Problema alkogolizma i narkomanii v Rossii na sovremennom jetape / E.A. Koshkina // Voprosy narkologii – 1993 – №4. – C.65-70.
4. Ivanec N.N. Sovremennoe sostojanie problemy narkomanij v Rossii / N.N. Ivanec, I.P. Anohina, N.V. Strelec // Voprosy narkologii. – 1997. – №3. C.3-12.
5. Grant B.F. Prevalence and correlates of alcohol use and DSM-IV alcohol dependence in the United States: results of the National Longitudinal Alcohol Epidemiologic Survey / B.F. Grant // J Stud Alcohol. – 1997 – V.58, N5. – P.464-473.
6. Prevalence and demographic correlates of symptoms of last year dependence on alcohol, nicotine, marijuana and cocaine in the US population / D. Kandel, K. Chen, L.A. Warner, [et al.] // Drug Alcohol Depend. – 1997 – V.44, N1. P.11-29.
7. Prevalence of alcohol consumption, abuse and dependence in a country with high per capita consumption: findings from the German TACOS study. Transitions in Alcohol Consumption and Smoking / C. Meyer, H.J. Rumpf, U. Hapke, [et al.] // Soc Psychiatry Psychiatr Epidemiol. – 2000 – V.35, N12. – P.539-547.
8. Kip K.E. Commentary on why national epidemiological estimates of substance abuse by race should not be used to estimate prevalence and need for substance abuse services at community and local levels / K.E. Kip, R.H. Peters, B. Morrison-Rodriguez // Am J Drug Alcohol Abuse. – 2002 – V.28, N3. – P.545-556.
9. Kolb L. The prevalence and trend of drug addiction in the United States and factors influencing it / L. Kolb, A.G. Du Mez // Public Health Rep. – 2006 – V.121, Suppl 1. – P.161-173; discussion 160.
10. Linskij I.V. Metod i rezul'taty rekonstrukcii dinamiki rasprostranenija opiomanij v Ukraine s 1981g. po 1998 g. / I.V. Linskij // Tavricheskij zhurnal psihiatrii. – 1999 – Vyp. 3, № 4 (11). – S.77-84.
11. Systema monitoryngu - osnova organizacii' narkologichnoi' dopomogy v suchasnyh umovah / P.V. Voloshyn, I.V.Lins'kyj, O.I. Minko, [ta in.] // Ukrai'ns'kyj medychnyj chasopys – 2002 – № 4 (30). – S.46-50.
12. Lins'kyj I.V. Zalezhnist' vid psyhoaktyvnyh rechovyn v Ukrai'ni: metodologija vyvchennja, tendencii' rozvytku / I.V. Lins'kyj, O.I. Minko // Visnyk psyhiatrii' ta psyhofarmakoterapii'. - 2003. -№2 (40). - S. 6-8.
13. Vavilin V.A. Avtokataliz i fluktuacii v prirode / V.A. Vavilin // Priroda – 2005. – N 6. – P.52-59.
14. Vandermeer J. Elementary mathematical ecology. / J. Vandermeer. – N.Y.: John Willey & Sons, 1981. – 294pp.
Cited
How to Cite
Linskiy, I. V., Tolstoluzhskiy, D. A., & Barannik, E. A. (1). The modeling and forecasting of prevalence of dependence on psychoactive substances. Biophysical Bulletin, 2(27). Retrieved from https://periodicals.karazin.ua/biophysvisnyk/article/view/2542
Section
Biophysics of complex systems
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