Possible Changes of Bioclimatic Conditions of Winter Period in Ukraine

Abstract

Purpose. Assessment of bioclimatic conditions of cold season on the basis of weather severeness indices and analysis of their dynamics on the territory of Ukraine. Methods. Estimation of possible values of some cold stress indices and their changes in different regions of the country is based on two scenarios А1В and А2. Results. Possible consequences of climate change on human health in Ukraine are considered. On the base of Bodman index and wind chill factor of Siple-Passel, there are given forecast parameters of uncomfortable climate within three periods: 1986-2005, 2011-2030 and 2031-2050 years. According to both scenarios, mean values of Bodman index during the given periods on the major part of Ukraine reach to 2-3 points and this means that during certain winter months and whole winter moderate severe conditions will prevail, though in western and southern areas will dominate slightly severe ones. According to both scenarios, during December-January within first and second periods in some areas of the country even high risk of hypothermia is possible, as well as frostbite of open parts of the skin in 5-10 minutes can occur. The most severe conditions are expected in January-February in Sumy (A1B) and Lugansk (A2), the least severe – in Kropyvnytsky (A1B) and Ternopil (A2). The trend of hypothermia and frostbite conditions change during the winter season in different regions of the country has been analyzed. Conclusions. The trend of decrease of Bodman index prevails on the whole territory of the country during all winter months. Weather conditions in February are the harshest in first and third periods and weather conditions in January-February are the most severe in the second period (А1В), according to another scenario for the whole researched time the harshest conditions are observed in January. In all analyzed time periods, in December winter weather conditions were the most comfortable according to both scenarios. But mostly repeatability of wind chill factor of Siple-Passel prevailed in the interval of 0 ÷ -9 ºC, thus a slight risk of frostbite, some discomfort will be observed. So, in winter expected compounds of low air temperature and wind in certain days in future might cause frostbite of different levels, they will influence on spreading of infections epidemics and «cold» diseases.