The impact of the monetary policy transmission mechanism on the tax base of the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine

Abstract

Abstract. The article examines the impact of the monetary policy transmission mechanism on the formation of the tax base of the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine under conditions of macroeconomic instability and structural transformations of the economy. The object of the study is the relationship between the key monetary instruments of the National Bank of Ukraine (the discount rate and the money aggregate (M3)) and the main sources of tax revenues of the consolidated budget.

Problem statement. Despite the active use of monetary instruments to stabilize the economy, their actual impact on tax revenues and the sustainability of Ukraine’s budgetary system remains insufficiently studied, especially in the context of different types of taxes.

Unresolved issues. Existing academic research lacks a comprehensive comparative analysis of the sensitivity of individual components of the consolidated budget’s tax base to monetary factors, in particular differences in the response of value-added tax, personal income tax, corporate income tax, and customs duty revenues.

Purpose of the article. The purpose of the article is to investigate the strength and directions of the impact of key monetary instruments (the discount rate and the money aggregate) through the transmission channels of monetary policy on the formation and dynamics of direct and indirect tax revenues to the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine.

Main material. The study applies correlation and regression analysis to assess the relationship between the discount rate, money aggregate (M3), and revenues from corporate income tax, personal income tax, value-added tax, and customs duties to the Consolidated Budget of Ukraine. A comparative analysis of the models “discount rate – money supply – corporate income tax / personal income tax / VAT / customs duty” is conducted, which makes it possible to identify different levels of sensitivity of individual tax revenues to domestic demand and external factors.

Conclusions. The results indicate a significant impact of the money supply on revenues from corporate income tax, personal income tax, and VAT, as well as a relatively weak direct impact of the discount rate on tax revenues of the consolidated budget. At the same time, customs duty revenues are characterized by a higher dependence on external economic factors. The practical significance of the obtained results lies in their potential application in the formation of coordinated monetary and fiscal policy aimed at enhancing the sustainability of Ukraine’s budgetary system.