Digital adaptability of the social protection system under military aggression: has the path from imbalance to institutional resilience been traversed?

Abstract

This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the «crisis digitalization paradox» phenomenon – a unique occurrence where extreme conditions of full-scale Russian military aggression became a catalyst for revolutionary transformation of Ukraine’s social protection system through digital innovations. The research is based on an innovative theoretical prism triangulation approach, where the Ukrainian experience is analyzed through complementary conceptual lenses: adaptive governance theory, resilience theory, and antifragility theory. The central proposition demonstrates how a system traditionally most inertial and resistant to change achieved a level of digital integration within two years of wartime that would have required decades of gradual transformation under normal circumstances. The study analyzes the dramatic leap from 102nd to 5th place in the UN global digital governance ranking, the evolution of the Diia platform from 13 to 22+ million users with over 140 digital services, and the establishment of 218 Resilience Centers. Key findings include the conceptualization of a new theoretical framework for «adaptive governance under global instability,» which postulates that the effectiveness of «shock modernization» depends on the synergy of institutional adaptive capacity, system resilience potential, and antifragile design. The research demonstrates that the «shock modernization» phenomenon is not a uniquely Ukrainian occurrence but a potentially universal pattern. Addressing the central question of overcoming the path from imbalance to institutional resilience, the study reveals the dialectical nature of transformation: Ukraine achieved functional resilience of the social protection system through digital adaptability but has not completed the structural institutionalization of achievements. The system remains in a transitional state between crisis response and sustainable development, highlighting the criticality of transitioning from «crisis exceptions» to «new normality».