Methodological bases for determining the influence of structural factors of demographic processes

Abstract

A number of factors, not least of which are structural, infl uence demographic processes. A timely and urgent task of geodemographic research is to establish the degree of their action as they provide reliable information about the demographic behavior. Method of demographic coeffi cients standardization is used as a universal tool to measure the strength of the structural factors’ infl uence on the course of demographic processes. The purpose of this article is to study methodical bases to establish the degree of structural factors infl uence on change of demographic processes by a method of standardization, representation of results of approbation on materials of birth rate of the population in the regions of Ukraine. Main material. The essence of the method of demographic coeffi cients standardization is to eliminate the infl uence of population structure and age intensities on the value of overall demographic coeffi cients. Standardization of demographic coeffi cients can be carried out based on offi cial statistics data and their statistical processing according to the presented generalized algorithm. Comparison of the calculated hypothetical (standardized) coeffi cients of the studied demographic processes with each other and with the actual indicators makes it possible to determine the degree of infl uence of each of the structural factors in numerical dimensions. Determining the degree of structural factors infl uence on the change of demographic processes should be carried out to establish both territorial and temporal features of their change. An example of the standardization method application to establish the degree of infl uence of structural factors on the change in the birth rate in Ukraine is considered. To reveal the functionality of the application of this method, we focus on its possibilities to determine both territorial and temporal features. Three reference dates were chosen: 2002 (lowest birth rates - 8‰), 2012 (highest birth rates - 11.4 ‰), 2018 (latest offi cial statistics - 8.4‰). To refl ect the possibilities of establishing and comparing territorial features, two regions of Ukraine were considered: Rivne region (as an example of a region with traditionally high birth rates - 11.6‰ in 2018) and Sumy region (as an example of a region with traditionally low birth rates - 6.6‰ in 2018). Conclusions and further research. The results of the standardization method application on the materials of demographic statistics of Sumy and Rivne regions for three reference years are presented in the article. They allowed us to establish the degree of influence of internal factors on the change of birth rate, both in territorial and temporal dimensions. Determining the effect of the factor of population structure and age intensity of demographic events allows us to identify and substantiate the features that are «erased» in the analysis of general indicators. The issue of thorough spatial and statistical analysis of the impact of these factors on the change in the birth rate in the regions of Ukraine is considered as well as identifi cation of structural and dynamic features and prevailing trends to clarify the most eff ective levers of infl uence and leveling of demographic problems to be embodied in further research.