Technological Shocks and Attitudes Towards Science: Will Artificial Intelligence Cause the Great Depression 2.0

Abstract

The article is devoted to assessing the potential of artificial intelligence to become a major technological shock like the one that led to the Great Depression in the 20th century. Parallels are drawn between these two historical periods from the point of view of the attitude towards science as a source of instability and economic crisis. It is shown how the demand for new technologies generates a surge of market optimism at the initial stages of their implementation and crisis phenomena in a longer perspective. The article analyzes the concept of "technological shock" within the framework of the theory of the real business cycle and its place in identifying the causes of the Great Depression. Controversies regarding the importance of this factor among others which also had an impact on the strengthening of the socio-economic crisis of the 20s and 30s of the 20th century are revealed. It is shown how the negative attitude towards science and the spread of anti-scientist movements first arose as a result of its ability to scale victims during the First World War, and then as a source of the reduction of the labor market due to the modernization of the production sphere. The role of war in accelerating the development of new technologies and promoting their implementation is emphasized. It is demonstrated how technologies aimed at improving production processes ultimately affect political and even geopolitical processes through the economy. As a historical parallel, a letter with a call to scientific research laboratories to suspend work on artificial intelligence, and to the governments of countries to intervene in these studies in case of their disagreement, is considered. The arguments of the authors of the letter and their forecasts regarding the impact of more advanced versions of artificial intelligence on various aspects of society have been studied. Time frameworks for the process when artificial intelligence from advanced technology can become a real technological shock that will shake not only economic, but also political relations, are assessed. The need to find mechanisms that mitigate social risks from the introduction of such revolutionary technologies is emphasized.