Analysing territorial impact assessment dynamic in cross-border regions: challenges and future perspectives

Abstract

This article presents a novel methodological approach to territorial impact assessment in border regions: Dynamical Territorial Impact Assessment (DyTIA). Grounded in dynamical systems theory, DyTIA offers a framework for modelling complex and interdependent relationships between economic, social, environmental, and institutional dimensions of territorial development. In contrast to conventional static methodologies, DyTIA focuses on identifying feedback loops, time lags, threshold effects, and network interactions, thereby enabling a more accurate representation of the dynamic and often non-linear nature of border regions. The methodology was tested using data from the European Court of Auditors covering 23 INTERREG V-A programmes (2014–2020). The analysis revealed significant heterogeneity in funding allocations and thematic priorities across different border regions. Notably, the largest share of funding (23.2%) was directed towards the thematic objective of environmental protection and resource efficiency, highlighting the increasing importance of sustainability within EU cohesion policy. A case study based on the Greater Region programme demonstrated DyTIA’s capacity to uncover complex territorial effect chains and to support optimized resource allocation, especially under the constraints of a projected 18.6% budget reduction in the INTERREG NEXT framework for the 2021–2027 period. Particularly insightful was the analysis of interactions between different thematic objectives, which revealed synergistic effects that enhance overall territorial impact. Beyond its analytical utility, DyTIA also serves a strategic governance function. In the context of Ukraine’s European integration, DyTIA gains relevance as a policy tool for supporting the inclusion of Ukrainian border regions into the European space. The EGTC Tisza is examined as a pilot project for adapting DyTIA to the specific challenges of post-war recovery and EU accession preparation. Based on these findings, the article offers practical recommendations for applying DyTIA in national and regional strategic planning processes, for strengthening the institutional capacity of European Groupings of Territorial Cooperation (EGTCs), and for establishing a network of “territorial development and security laboratories” along Ukraine’s western border. Special attention is given to incorporating the security dimension into territorial impact assessments, in response to emerging geopolitical challenges. Ultimately, DyTIA is not only a methodological innovation but also part of a broader rethinking of how territorial development in border regions is conceptualized and governed. In a time of profound geopolitical changes, dynamic models such as DyTIA are essential for designing effective, sustainable, and inclusive strategies—strategies that contribute to integration and resilience, and help shape a more stable and secure European space, with Ukraine as an integral participant.