SUBJECTIVE INDEPENDENCE AND INTERDEPENDENCE OF POLITICAL ANALYSIS AND POLITICAL FORECASTING АS SPECIALIZED SCIENTIFIC AND EDUCATIONAL DISCIPLINES

Abstract

The relevance of scientific research into the problems of determining the subject independence and interdependence of political analysis and political forecasting as specialized scientific and educational disciplines is substantiated. The purpose and methods of the research are determined. An attempt is made to provide an author's conceptual justification of the influence of the nature of methods and procedures on the formation of the subject independence and interdependence of political analysis and forecasting. It is indicated that mathematical and other strictly formalized methods and procedures are effective in the process of solving routine tasks, which is characteristic of political analysis and the process of forming its subject field as a specialized independent scientific and educational discipline. Conversely, in the case of uncertainty and increasing dynamism of the situation being studied, management procedures inevitably become more complicated, and therefore require the analysis of numerous alternatives and, accordingly, the application of predominantly qualitative, i.e. expert research methods and procedures, which is inherent to a greater extent to political forecasting, and, accordingly, to the very process of forming its independent subject field. It is argued that these various methods and types of independent scientific activity carried out by the subjects of political analysis and political forecasting, due to the very nature of the methods and procedures used by them, are organically interdependent and mutually dependent. In the process of researching and solving political problems: the first performs part of the prognostic functions, and the second - analytical. It is emphasized that later, the indicated interdependence of political analysis and political forecasting found its embodiment not only in the scientific process - the development of special algorithms for their practical implementation, but also in the educational process for professional training not only of students - political scientists, but also of representatives of other specialties. Moreover, in the form of not separate curricula for their implementation from each discipline, but of joint work programs with their corresponding name: «Political Analysis and Forecasting», which thereby emphasizes not only their subject independence, but also their interdependence as scientific and educational disciplines. The article may be of interest to sociology and political science teachers.