Ensuring the stability of the revenue side of state budget under post-war emergency conditions: Ukrainian experience for the world.

Abstract

This article addresses the critical issue of ensuring the stability of the revenue side of Ukraine’s public finances in post-war emergency conditions. It analyses the performance of Ukraine’s fiscal system during 2022–2024, a period marked by unprecedented challenges, including significant GDP contraction, a sharp rise in budget deficits, infrastructure destruction, and extreme reliance on external financial assistance. Using an analysis of macroeconomic trends, structural transformations in the budget system, and crisis management mechanisms, the study substantiates the need for a systematic approach to assessing fiscal stability under the conditions of a wartime economy. The study’s aim is to identify the key factors contributing to the resilience of Ukraine’s public finances during wartime and to formulate recommendations for adapting these mechanisms to new global and security challenges. The research methodology combines structural-dynamic analysis, scenario forecasting, a systematic risk management approach, and policy analysis, using official data from Ukraine’s Ministry of Finance and international organizations. The fiscal stability assessment matrix developed in the article covers key evaluation aspects, including: budget revenue dynamics, effectiveness of crisis management measures, risk identification, structural transformations, long-term trend forecasting.

The findings indicate that Ukraine achieved stabilization of its budget system through a flexible combination of tax reforms, international assistance mobilization, temporary deficit monetization, and fiscal process digitalization. Tax revenues increased from 37.6% in 2022 to 48.5% in 2024, reflecting gradual economic recovery. However, the analysis identified significant structural risks, including excessive dependence on external assistance (up to 13.6% of budget revenues in 2024) and limitations of traditional revenue sources. The study emphasizes that achieving fiscal stability in the medium- and long-term requires several reforms: expanding the tax base through economic de-shadowing and innovative taxation mechanisms; optimizing intergovernmental fiscal relations by enhancing regional tax autonomy; creating an integrated system for fiscal risk management; introducing a medium-term budget framework to account for macroeconomic shocks. Comprehensive digitalization of the budget process to improve transparency and forecast accuracy. The research findings hold practical value for governments of other countries facing extreme economic challenges due to wars or other crises.