DEMOGRAPHIC PRECONDITIONS FOR PROVIDING HUMAN RESOURCES TO THE ECONOMY OF UKRAINE
Abstract
The purpose of this article is to determine the demographic prerequisites for the formation of human resources of Ukraine in the context of the prospects for resource provision of the national economy. Based on the purpose of the study, the article analyzes the natural and migration movement of the population of Ukraine in the pre-war and war periods based on various sources of information. with the beginning of hostilities (2022) the State Statistics Service of Ukraine does not update data on the main demographic indicators, which creates an information "vacuum" in the relevant area and necessitates the use of alternative sources of information. For 2022, the State Statistics Service published data on the population of Ukraine at the level of 41.2 million people, which is currently not true. Other sources of information (governmental, non-governmental, expert) provide different data on the population of our country. According to the UN, with the beginning of full-scale hostilities, the population of Ukraine has significantly decreased and by 2024 amounted to 37.9 million people. Data on the population of Ukraine that are close to the UN estimates are provided by Worldometer and the World Bank. The most “pessimistic” data on the population of Ukraine are provided by demographers (28-30 million or 34 million people). According to the UN, since the beginning of hostilities in Ukraine, there has been a critically low birth rate (5.5-5.7 per 1,000 people) compared to 8-9 per 1,000 people in the EU. As for mortality, Ukraine has not published official statistics on the number of deaths/killed since 2022. At the same time, according to the UN, since 2022, the mortality rate in Ukraine has decreased compared to the relatively peaceful 2021 (14.2 versus 17.1 per 1,000 people, respectively). This raises a number of questions and doubts, because the fact of a high level of excess mortality among military and civilians as a result of military operations is obvious. The average life expectancy at birth in Ukraine has significantly decreased since the start of hostilities and in 2023 was 64 years compared to 83 years in the EU. Ukraine has a regressive age structure (the share of the population aged 60+ in 2022-2023 was about 28%), and the average age of the population has increased to 44 years.
Official data on the scale of interstate migration in Ukraine do not reflect real migration losses (according to the State Statistics Service, in 2021 the number of people arriving from foreign countries to Ukraine was 41.7 thousand people, while those leaving were 22.6 thousand people). According to the International Organization for Migration, full-scale hostilities in 2022 and 2023 caused a sharp increase in interstate migration in Ukraine (-139 and -8 per 1,000 people of the current population, respectively). In 2024, the balance of interstate migration flows became positive, but the fact of significant irreversible migration losses for Ukraine is obvious. Thus, unfortunately, Ukraine has a deep demographic crisis, which creates problems in providing the Ukrainian economy with human resources today, and will only worsen in the near future.
Downloads
References
Alpysbekova, A., Bartoszak, M., Scaramutti, C., Lee, T. K., & Schwartz, S. J. (2025). Validating negative context of reception scale for Ukrainians in the US. International Journal of Intercultural Relations, 106, Article 102181. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijintrel.2025.102181
Lee, A. C. K., Khaw, F. M., Lindman, A. E. S., & Juszczyk, G. (2023). Ukraine refugee crisis: evolving needs and challenges. Public Health, 217, 145–151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.puhe.2023.01.016
Goodwin, R., Hamama-Raz, Y., Leshem, E., & Ben-Ezra, M. (2023). National resilience in Ukraine following the 2022 Russian invasion. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 85, Article 103487. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2022.103487
Hrynkevych, O., Levytska, O., & Baranyak, I. (2023). Human resources for regional development in Ukraine: A roadmap for forecasting and determining a regional training request. Regional Science Policy & Practice, 15(1), 123–135. https://doi.org/10.1111/rsp3.12625
Karstoft, K.-I., Bjørndal, L. D., Pedersen, A. A., Korchakova, N., Power, S. A., Morton, T. A., Koushede, V. J., Thøgersen, M. H., & Hall, B. J. (2025). Associations of war exposures, post-migration living difficulties and social support with (complex) PTSD: A cohort study of Ukrainian refugees resettled in Denmark. Social Science & Medicine, 376, Article 118080. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socscimed.2025.118080
Rose, M. E., Juríková, K., Pelepets, M., Slivko, O., & Yereshko, J. (2026). Shelter in scholarship: Evidence from a global survey of hosts for displaced Ukrainian scientists. Research Policy, 55(3), Article 105425. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.respol.2026.105425
Lemoine-Rodríguez, R., Mast, J., Mühlbauer, M., Mandery, N., Biewer, C., & Taubenböck, H. (2024). The voices of the displaced: Mobility and Twitter conversations of migrants of Ukraine in 2022. Information Processing & Management, 61(3), Article 103670. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ipm.2024.103670
Vakhitov, V., Zaika, N., & Kandul, S. (2025). Return intentions of Ukrainian refugees: The role of national identity and pride. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics, 119, Article 102455. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.socec.2025.102455
Kimhi, S., Baran, M., Baran, T., Kaniasty, K., Marciano, H., Eshel, Y., & Adini, B. (2023). Prediction of societal and community resilience among Ukrainian and Polish populations during the Russian war against Ukraine. International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, 93, Article 103792. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2023.103792
Lumley-Sapanski, A., & Garbers, K. (2026). Hosting as a border making process: Understanding the role of proximity in explaining the motivations of British hosts in the Homes for Ukraine scheme. Political Geography, 124, Article 103446. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.polgeo.2025.103446
Saha, J. (2026). Fertility behaviour under geopolitical uncertainty: Evidence from Ukraine. Economics & Human Biology, 61, Article 101594. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ehb.2026.101594
Bashynskyi, I. A., Lopushynskyi, I. Ya., Mosora, L. M., & Petrenko, V. V. (2024). Prospects for the demographic development of Ukraine in the context of preserving human potential. Coordinates of Public Administration, 2(3), 34–48. https://doi.org/10.62664/cpa.2024.02.06 (In Ukrainian)
Bilous, M. (2025). Demographic policy of regional development: Challenges of spatial inequality and post-war reconstruction. Economics. Management. Innovations, 2(37). https://doi.org/10.35433/ISSN2410-3748-2025-2(37)-1 (In Ukrainian)
Potapenko, V., Golovka, A., & Valevskyi, O. (2023). The impact of migration on the socio-economic situation in Ukraine: Analytical supplement (V. Potapenko, Ed.). NISD. https://doi.org/10.53679/NISS-analytrep.2023.01 (In Ukrainian)
Gerlach, I., & Ukrainets, L. (2022). Demographic situation in Ukraine at the present stage: Challenges and threats. Economy and Society, (39). https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2022-39-83 (In Ukrainian)
Naporchuk, D. (2024). Demographic situation in Ukraine in the context of military conflict. Modeling the Development of the Economic Systems, (1), 235–241. https://doi.org/10.31891/mdes/2024-11-35 (In Ukrainian)
Petrivskyi, O. (2025). Demographic situation in Ukraine: Prospects for overcoming the crisis and minimizing its impact on the development of the country's economy. Economy and Society, (77). https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2025-77-3 (In Ukrainian)
Tokar, P., & Babichyn, N. (2023). Demographic consequences of the war in Ukraine and the need for refugee return strategies. Geopolitics of Ukraine: History and Modernity, 2(31), 87–99. https://doi.org/10.24144/2078-1431.2023.2(31).87-99 (In Ukrainian)
Khudiy, A. P. (2025). Demographic processes in Ukraine: Analysis, trends and challenges. Modern Economics, 49(2025), 269–275. https://doi.org/10.31521/modecon.V49(2025)-34 (In Ukrainian)
Shushpanov, D. G. (2024). Demographic policy of Ukraine in the post-war period: Challenges, priorities and strategic directions. In Restoration of Ukraine in post-war times: Challenges, strategic priorities, resource provision, potential for future development. DonNU named after Vasyl Stus. https://jrupp.donnu.edu.ua/article/view/16576 (In Ukrainian)
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
