Export potential of grain crops under wartime conditions (the case of Ukraine)
Abstract
The agricultural sector plays a decisive role in the structure of Ukraine’s national exports, with grain crops traditionally serving as a major source of foreign exchange earnings and a key element of food security. Under the extraordinary conditions of the COVID-19 pandemic and the ongoing full-scale war, the issue of maintaining and enhancing the country’s grain export potential has acquired particular importance.
This study aims to systematize the theoretical foundations of the concept of “export potential,” to identify the main methodological principles for its assessment, and to analyze the current state, structure, and dynamics of Ukraine’s grain exports in 2020–2024, with special emphasis on the impact of wartime conditions.
The research is based on a structural and dynamic analysis of Ukraine’s grain export volumes and composition, the identification of key external and internal factors influencing its development, and the formulation of methodological provisions for the development of regional export potential.
The findings demonstrate that the COVID-19 pandemic significantly affected Ukrainian grain exports through disruptions in global supply chains, reduced demand in international markets, and sharp price fluctuations, which in 2020 led to a temporary decline in exports. Despite the loss of part of the sown areas, logistical difficulties, and reduced investment attractiveness during the war, the agricultural sector has retained its resilience, ensuring substantial foreign currency revenues and consolidating its role as the leading component of Ukraine’s exports. The export structure in 2024 showed a high concentration in corn and wheat, highlighting risks related to low diversification and dependence on global markets.
The study emphasizes that increasing the competitiveness of Ukrainian grain requires targeted efforts in the development of niche crops, expansion of processing and value-added production, improvement of state support, and attraction of investment.
The results contribute to the development of strategic measures for sustaining and strengthening Ukraine’s grain export potential under wartime conditions, ensuring food security, and fostering long-term economic resilience.
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