Level regime of Lake Svitiaz
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26565/2410-7360-2026-64-21Keywords:
lake, lake water levels, level fluctuations, lake level regime, factors affecting lake water levels, lake feeding, underground runoff as a source of feeding, lake water balance, climate changeAbstract
Introduction. Lake Svityaz is the largest and deepest of the Shatsk Lakes, and its water level is determined by precipitation, evaporation, groundwater recharge, and human impact. The most significant drops in the lake’s water level occurred in 2019–2020. This complicates forecasting and requires scientifically sound management.
The purpose of article is to scientifically substantiate the peculiarities of the formation, identify current trends and factors of change in the water level regime of Lake Svitiaz based on the analysis of hydrometeorological parameters, elements of the lake’s water balance, and the spatial and temporal patterns of their fluctuations. The object of the study is the level regime of Lake Svitiaz as a result of natural and anthropogenic factors. The subject of the study is the spatial and temporal features of water level fluctuations, natural and anthropogenic factors that determine the water balance and water level regime of Lake Svitiaz.
Data and methods. The study utilized monthly average water levels of Lake Svityaz, monthly average temperature, and precipitation amounts for 1970–2024, as well as Wolf numbers as an indicator of solar activity. Long-term and seasonal changes in water level were analyzed using graphs and statistical calculations. The main parameters of the seasonal cycle were determined. Correlation analysis was used to assess the relationship between water level and temperature, precipitation, and solar activity. Years with minimum and maximum water levels were identified, and the levels were compared with meteorological conditions and the solar activity cycle. The influence of the main factors affecting the lake’s water level regime under conditions of climate variability was analyzed.
Results. It was established that the lake’s water level depends most significantly on meteorological conditions. Annual seasonality is the dominant factor in the formation of the water level regime. Against the backdrop of annual cycles, long-term waves with a period of 9.26 years can be observed.
Scientific novelty. Quantitative patterns of the influence of meteorological factors and solar activity on the long-term dynamics of water levels in Lake Svityaz have been established. The parameters of the autocorrelation function of water levels and the correlation coefficients between water levels, precipitation, and air temperature have been calculated, and their statistical significance has been determined. A periodogram of the time series of average monthly water levels has been constructed. A decomposition of the time series of Lake Svitiaz water levels has been performed.
Practical significance. The results obtained can be used to develop programs for the sustainable management of the Shatsk Lakes limnоsystems, nature conservation measures, monitoring, and adaptation to climate change.
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