Characteristics of the contemporary spatiotemporal distribution of atmospheric precipitation in the northeastern part of the Lesser Caucasus region
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26565/2410-7360-2026-64-13Keywords:
Global warming, precipitation amount, multiannual variability, monthly maximum precipitation, mean sliding quantity, GIS technology, recurrent precipitation amount, difference integral, Lesser Caucasus regionAbstract
Problem definition. Global warming observed on Earth in recent times is manifested with numerous impacts in mid-latitude regions. The rise in air temperature affects the long-term dynamics of many climatic elements. Consequently, the potential increase in evaporation leads to a reduction in precipitation, which in turn results in decreased freshwater resources and an expansion of health-related risks.
Formulation of the purpose. The purpose of the study is to determine the contemporary spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of atmospheric precipitation in the northeastern part of the Lesser Caucasus region, as well as the effects of climate changes on the long-term precipitation amounts, based on the initial precipitation data for the period 1961-2023.
Research methods. The analyses utilized precipitation data (monthly, seasonal, annual, and long-term) from six hydrometeorological stations operating in this region during the specified period. The study was conducted using mathematical-statistical, cartographic, and physical methods. To determine the spatial distribution pattern, the variation of annual precipitation amounts with elevation was mapped using GIS technology.
The main material. The results of the study indicate that 65% of the annual precipitation occurs during the warm period, while 35% falls in the cold period of the year. In the region, precipitation amounts increase from the lowlands toward the high mountains. Precipitation, which rises up to the upper boundary of the mid-mountain zone, tends to decrease again above approximately 2800 m. The period when precipitation decreases most in the region corresponds to June-September, during which the demand for drinking water reaches its maximum level. In the multi-year period, 90% of the 10 years with lower precipitation occurred after 1995. However, during that period, an increase in extreme precipitation amounts was recorded. This confirms that the majority of the annual precipitation occurred during such events, while drought conditions expanded during other phases of the year.
Conclusions. The long-term average of atmospheric precipitation in the northeastern part of the Lesser Caucasus region (1991-2023) was 451 mm, which is 15% (71 mm) lower than the norm (1981-2010). Maximum precipitation is recorded primarily in Gadabay (up to 1000 mm). The wettest period in the region occurred between 2001 and 2010, while the driest period was after 2010. The sharp decrease in precipitation during summer significantly affects crop cultivation and horticulture in the lowlands, as well as hay farming and livestock breeding in the mountainous areas. It is recommended to plant drought-resistant crops and to use modern irrigation technologies (sprinkler and drip systems) in agriculture. Determining the contemporary spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation in this region is essential for climate change mitigation, adaptation strategies, and the assessment of alternative energy sources.
References
1. Climate of Azerbaijan. Ed. by E.M. Shikhlinsky. (1968). Baku: Publishing House of the Academy of Sciences of the Azerbaijan SSR, 360.
2. Du, J., Zhou, L., Yu, X., Ding, Y., Zhang, Y., Wu, L., & Ao, T. (2024). Understanding precipitation concentration changes, driving factors, and responses to global warming across mainland China. Journal of Hydrology, 645, 132164. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132164
3. Elizbarashvili, M., Giorgadze, T., Khaburzania, T., & Beridze, S. (2025). Seasonal temperature and precipitation patterns in Caucasus landscapes. Atmosphere, 16(7), 889. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16070889
4. Huseynov, J.S., (2022). Assessment of the Impact of Climate Change on the Precipitation Regime in the Northeastern Part of the Lesser Caucasus Region. Organization and Management of Natural-Economic Systems in the Karabakh and Eastern Zangazur Economic Regions-Proceedings of the Scientific-Practical Conference, Baku, 488. [in Azerbaijan]
5. Huseynov, N. Sh., & Huseynov, J. S. (2022). Distribution of the contemporary precipitation regime and the impact of climate change on it within the territory of Azerbaijan. Journal of Geography & Natural Disasters, 12(4), Article 1000254. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs 1958992/v1
6. Huseynov J.S., Tagiyev A.Sh. (2024). Current situation of glacier and snow glades in the southern mountain area of Lesser Caucasus province. Visnyk of V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University, series "Geology, Geography, Ecology", (61), 288-302. https://doi.org/10.26565/2410-7360-2024-61-23
7. Kenneth, E.K., Thomas, R. K., David, R. E., Kelly, R., John, Y., Xungang, Y., Paula, H. (2013). Probable maximum precipitation and climate change. Advancing Earth and Space Science: Geophysical Research Letters. 40 (7), 1257-1455, https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50334
8. Liu, W., Zhang, Q., Fu, Z., Chen, X., & Li, H. (2018). Analysis and Estimation of Geographical and Topographic Influencing Factors for Precipitation Distribution over Complex Terrains: A Case of the Northeast Slope of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. Atmosphere, 9(9), 349. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos9090349
9. Makhmudov, R., Aliyev, V., Teymurov, M., & Gafarov, E. (2024). Regional climate changes in Azerbaijan and assessment of their impact on water resources with a new method. RT&A, 2024 (SI 6 (81)). https://cyberleninka.ru/article/n/regional-climate-changes-in-azerbaijan-and-assessment-of-their-impact-on-water-resources-with-a-new-method
10. Mammadov, R.M., (Ed.). (2015). Geography of the Republic of Azerbaijan, -vol. 1: Physical Geography. Baku: Avropa. 530. [in Azerbaijan]
11. Nikolov, D., & Dimitrov, C. (2025). Contemporary Tendencies in Snow Cover, Winter Precipitation, and Winter Air Temperatures in the Mountain Regions of Bulgaria. Climate, 13(10), 212. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli13100212
12. Otto, FEL. Attribution of extreme events to climate change. (2023). Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 48, 813-828, https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-112621-083538.
13. Onyutha, C. (2020). Analyses of rainfall extremes in East Africa based on observations from rain gauges and climate change simulations by CORDEX RCMs. Climate Dynamics, 54, 4841–4864. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05264-9
14. Safarov, S.G., Huseynov, D.S., Guliyev, Z.G., Ibrahimova, I.V. (2022). Spatiotemporal features of precipitation distribution in the territory of Azerbaijan. Hydrometeorological Research and Forecasting, 383(1), 77-94, https://doi.org/10.37162/2618-9631-2022-1-43-56 . [in Russian]
15. Shahgedanova, M., Popovnin, V., Aleynikov, A., Petrakov, D., Stokes, C.R. (2007). Long-term change, interannual and intra-seasonal variability in climate and glacier mass balance in the central Greater Caucasus, Russia. UK: Annals of Glaciology, 46, 355-361, https://doi.org/10.3189/172756407782871323
16. Tuinenburg, O. A., Theeuwen, J. J. E., & Staal, A. (2020). High-resolution global atmospheric moisture connections from evaporation to precipitation. Earth System Science Data, 12(4), 3177–3188. https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-12-3177-2020
17. Volford, A., Ferenc, I., Matyas, R., Istvan, L. (2007). Pattern formation and self-organization in a simple precipitation system. American Chemical Society: Langmuir, 23 (3), 961-964, https://doi.org/10.1021/la0623432
18. World Meteorological Organization. (2018). Collection of the WMO climatological standard normals for 1981-2010 (WMO Technical Collection). World Meteorological Organization. PDF link: https://extranet.wmo.int/edistrib_exped/grp_prs/_en/2011_2022_Archives/2019/08791-2019-CLW-CLPA-DMA-CLINO8110_en.pdf
19. World Meteorological Organization. (2023). WMO publishes global update of climate datasets (Press release). World Meteorological Organization. https://public.wmo.int/media/news/wmo-publishes-global-update-of-climate-datasets
20. NASA POWER. Data Access Viewer (DAV). Available at: https://power.larc.nasa.gov/data-access-viewer/
21. The State Statistical Committee of the Republic of Azerbaijan. Available at: https://www.stat.gov.az/source/environment
22. Climate Change Knowledge Portal. Available at: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/country/azerbaijan/era5-historical
