ATO Zone Conflicts: Content and Methodology of Measurement

Abstract

The article is based on the empirical data derived from the public opinion poll conducted among the residents of the ATO zone and carried out during two stages. The research objective was to assess intensity of a number of social conflicts that take place among communities in the East of Ukraine. Conflicts were measured according to three indicators: reality of existence, frequency of occurrence, and danger from respondents’ point of view. During data analysis integral index of conflicts’ intensity was measured (taking into account fluctuation range from 0 until 10). According to poll’s results in 2015, the biggest index was attributed to the conflict between Ukraine’s patriots and Russia’s supporters (DNR, LNR) that corresponded to 7,4. Furthermore, the conflict between local population and regional administration corresponded to 4,94; the conflict between local population and law enforcement officials corresponded to 4,87, and the conflict between army and local population corresponded to 4,84. The second research based on the same methodology and carried out in 2016 revealed a certain decrease in all conflicts that demonstrates stabilization of political and economic situation in the region. The author refutes the hypothesis that socio-economic or ethnic factors were the main drivers of the conflict in the east of Ukraine. Instead it is argued that the “clash of civilizations” could be considered one of the main reasons of conflict’s emergence.