PECULARITIES OF USE THE MIGRATION PROCESSES AS A MEANS OF POLICY AND HYBRID DESTRUCTIVE ACTIONS IN THE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS IN CONTEMPORARY GEOPOLITICAL CONDITIONS

case the migration processes are used by the interested actor as a means of hybrid destructive actions were investigated. The necessity to constantly monitor the migration processes conflictogenity in order to prevent the achievement by the migration the level of conflictogenity that threatens the security was substantiated. The signs of using the migration of the population as the instrument of the political influence were determined. The set of indicators whose values should be constantly monitored in order to watch the current level of migratory processes conflictogenity, including in case of their use with the hybrid destructive goal, was worked out.


PECULARITIES OF USE THE MIGRATION PROCESSES AS A MEANS OF POLICY AND HYBRID DESTRUCTIVE ACTIONS IN THE INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS IN CONTEMPORARY GEOPOLITICAL CONDITIONS
The factors that create conditions for the use of migration processes as a means of policy and hybrid destructive actions in the international relations in contemporary geopolitical conditions as well as the peculiarities of this use are analyzed in the article. In particular, new tendencies and patterns of the migration processes and the main approaches and theories that explain the mechanisms of the reproduction and the self-support of migration were studied and characterized. The peculiarities of the achievements of the political goals by the world policy actors in the contemporary geopolitical conditions, that determine the feasibility of the use of the migration of population as a means of policy and hybrid destructive actions were characterized. The conditions that make it possible for the interested internal and external policy actors to direct the migration processes. The root causes and the mechanisms of the obtaining the conflictogenous properties by the migration processes were found out and studied. Besides, the transformation of the intergroup horizontal inequality between migrants and locals as well as among the migrants was determined as the precondition of the migration processes conflictogenity. In its turn it was substantiated that this intergroup horizontal inequality is caused by getting migrants into the new social and economic condition in the new place of living. The principal threats to the national and regional security in _______________ case the migration processes are used by the interested actor as a means of hybrid destructive actions were investigated. The necessity to constantly monitor the migration processes conflictogenity in order to prevent the achievement by the migration the level of conflictogenity that threatens the security was substantiated. The signs of using the migration of the population as the instrument of the political influence were determined. The set of indicators whose values should be constantly monitored in order to watch the current level of migratory processes conflictogenity, including in case of their use with the hybrid destructive goal, was worked out.
Keywords The international migration which is growing in scope and complexity influences the development of the countries and regions as well as the security environment and the international relations. The way they are influenced by migration depends both on the trends and features of the migration processes themselves at the present stage, and on the trends of world politics and international relations. At the same time, such an impact may not only result from the objective political and other processes in the world, but also from the deliberate use of population migration by the actors of world politics.
The above-mentioned necessitates the study of the ways and conditions for the migration processes to be used as a means of policy and hybrid destructive actions in international relations in contemporary geopolitical conditions, as well as the continuous monitoring of the migration processes and their level of conflictogenity. Besides that makes it imperative to conduct constant analysis of international relations and security situations in the region, and in particular to identify the interest of certain external actors in the desire to use the migration of population in order to achieve their geopolitical purposes. Such monitoring and analysis allows the early forecasting of the possible negative effects of migration processes, their diminishing and even preventing these negative effects from being occurred.
The purpose of the article is the study on the use of the migration processes by the actors of the world politics as a means of policy and hybrid destructive actions in the international relations in contemporary geopolitical conditions in order to achieve their political goals. To achieve the above-mentioned goal the following research tasks should be met: -to study and characterize the new trends and patterns of the migration processes in the circumstances of the modern world; -to determine the peculiarities of the ways for furthering the political goals by the actors of the world politics at the current stage, to substantiate the feasibility of use the population migration processes as a means of policy and the hybrid destructive actions; -to determine the possibility of the external influence on the migration processes on the part of the interested actors of the domestic and foreign policy, to introduce the concept of the directed migration; to identify the causes and to investigate the mechanisms of the conflictogenity acquisition by the migration processes, to substantiate the dependence of the conflictogenity level on the horizontal socio-economic inequality; -to find out and to substantiate the main threats to the national and regional security in case the migration processes are used by the interested actor as a means of influencing; -to determine the indicators of use the migration as the means of political influence as well as the indicators that are supposed to be monitored in order to identify the current level of migration conflictogenity, including if it used for the destructive influence. The migration-related issues, including those connected with the needs and problems of migrants, refugees and internally displaced people are of great concern to certain international organizations, non-governmental agencies that continuously monitor the current situation in the world in the sphere of migration and regularly publish the statistics reports and analytical outputs.
These issues are also covered in the works of D. Goldstone, М. The migration has become the large-scaled process that characterizes the today's world and has its implications for the international relations and for the national, regional and global security levels. In 2015 there were approximately 244 million migrants worldwide, or the 3,3% of the world population and the growth rate in the number of migrants is still increasing (IOM 2018: 2). Meanwhile this actual growth rate exceeds significantly the anticipated one, so the experts have to constantly revise their prognosis upward. It was projected in 2003 that the number of international migrants would reach 230 million or 2,6% of the world population by 2050 -the number that has already been exceeded. But according to the prognosis made in 2010 there number will reach 405 million by that time (Ibid). It can be assumed that this unpredictable growth was resulted from the global financial crisis in 2008 and the conflicts in some countries of the Middle East, but the effect of the root causes of migration also tends to be more intensive. Besides, there is also the significant growth of the number of the forcibly displaced people, who left their permanent place of living because of the persecution, conflict, violence and the human rights violation. Actually their quantity has reached 70,8 million people (UNHCR 2018: 2).
The studies of the causes and factors of the migratory processes, the mechanisms of their self-reproduction and self-support are based on the various approaches that are attributable to the complexity and multidimensional nature of the migration as the object of study. The economic approach is still the dominating one. Under this approach the main cause of migration are the economic differences between the regions and countries, for example as for the demand for labour and its supply, income disparities and different working conditions.
The globalization and the awareness of the need to take into consideration its peculiarities have strengthened the positions of the historicstructured and integrative approaches, but the economic aspect still plays the critically important role. At the same time the theories, developed in the framework of the positivistic approach bring the organizational and psychological aspects of migration to the forefront. In particular the migration network theory and the D. Massey theory of the aggregate causation ) are focused on the personal ties and relations between those that have already migrated and their friends and relatives who left in the home country. It gains its importance due to the development of the modern means of communication. These relations contribute to the formation of the desire and intention to migrate because they reduce the possible risks and expenses. It means that people that are socially connected with the migrants will more likely become the migrants themselves. In the institutional theory of migration the attention is focused on the functioning of legal and illegal agencies or people that render assistance to migrants with traveling, crossing the border, employment, accommodation, etc. It also contributes to the decision to migrate. The M. Kritz theory of international migration system  explains the migration within the certain region or group of countries by the geographic proximity, economic interests and historical roots.
The foregoing approaches and theories serve to underscore the causes and factors of the migratory processes. But the changes that constantly take place in the global economy and politics intensify the effect of certain factors and weaken the effect of others, besides the new factors can emerge. It leads to the formation of the new trends and patterns of the migration we have to study in order to find out if they acquire the signs of danger and if the new patterns are the risk bringing ones.
The increasing globalization trends, as well as the simplification of the border crossing procedures, the establishment of the visa-free regimes between countries, the reducing of the transport costs, as well as the intense information impact contribute to the scaling up of migration (Livi-Bacci 2012: 112-113). The dissemination of information through television and the Internet about economic opportunities in the more prosperous countries has made the potential migrants not only to feel devalued compared to the residents of more prosperous countries and regions, but also to realize that they can improve their situation through their migration there. An important new tendency is that the socio-demographic groups of the population, which were previously inactive, are actively involved into the migratory process now. In particular, the proportion of people with low levels of education and skills, women, children and adolescents, which was traditionally low, has increased (Zelinsky: 224). Due to the current level of development of communication and information systems, the Internet and their accessibility to the general public, migrants are exposed to adaptation and assimilation mechanisms to a lesser extent than in the past. In the past, migrants were much more isolated from their country of origin, from their compatriots, being forced to quickly integrate into the host community. Despite the fact that the effects of migration are remote in time and are affected by other factors, including unpredictable ones, we have to take into account their current patterns in order to detect in a timely manner the acquisition by the migration the destructive features.
A significant role in the acquisition by migration the destructive or conflicting potential belongs to the transformation of horizontal inequality, which creates the preconditions for the emergence or intensification of the feelings of frustration and dissatisfaction in the society . Mass replacement of people to a new place of residence leads to the emergence of the two groups there -migrants and locals. Each of these groups has the certain initial level of inequality. But the relocation of the population and its getting into the new socio-economic environment created the possibility for changing the level of the intergroup inequality that can follow one of the two scenarios. According to the first scenario people who came to the new place of living do well for themselves, strengthen their position over time and replace locals on the key spheres and key jobs. Eventually it leads to the position of newcomers getting better comparing to the local population. But the second scenario reflects the opposite situation: the overwhelming majority of the migrants don't adapt to the socio-economic conditions and its relative position is getting worse. In the case of any of these two scenarios the risk of the eruption of conflict increases in the regions where the great number of people comes. That's because in both cases the inevitable transformation of the inequality level causes the resentment of the one or another group of population.
Socio-economic benefits of the group transform into political advantages, which in turn provide opportunities for further socioeconomic growth. Under these conditions, the community of one group becomes hostile to the other's and is inclined to blame it for its own problems and for its relatively poor level of income and quality of life . But in the case of the transformation of inequality in favor of migrants, dissatisfaction among the local population arises not only for economic reasons. The ethnic, religious and linguistic composition of the receiving region is changing. It is also seen as a threat factor, so that can destroy the social and political balance in society. If migrants constitute a particular ethnic group, while moving to a region where another ethnic group is dominant, and over time, the displacement threatens that dominance -the risk of conflict increases (Ostby 2008;. As a result of the first scenario, displaced persons have a higher level of income over time and, accordingly, better status characteristics, as a consequence of the second scenario -the situation is the opposite. But in both cases, we see the formation and intensification of the intergroup horizontal inequality. Its level is not consistent, but ranges from acceptable to dangerous and even critical one. In addition, after migrants start living in the new socio-economic conditions the level of inequality within the migrant community changes too (Winder 2013: 55).
But it is not always necessary for the intergroup contradictions to arise from the socio-economic differences that really exist. Very often they are formed due to the interpretations of socio-economic inequality in the consciousness of people. For instance, in the context of the hybrid conflicts it is often supposed to be done deliberately. The tension is artificially produced for instance due to the distorted perception of the existing state of affairs, when the achievements of people of certain social groups are perceived as the undeserved ones. The use of special technologies provides the opportunity to create and artificially untangle the chaos situation. At the beginning it can result in the peaceful protest actions and then turn them into a means to achieve the specific goal. For instance, in a context of the hybrid war, it can become a significant destabilizing factor (Pacek et al., 2019).
Given the above-mentioned features of migration at the present stage, migration can be used as a means of influence in contemporary international relations. Such use seems to be the politically expedient and highly probable, especially in the context of new approaches to the achievement of the foreign policy goals. The latter, in turn, are significantly influenced by new phenomena in the philosophy of war, in the military strategy and in the practice of war. Besides they are affected by the emergence of military conflicts, which are based on innovative achievements of high technology, as well as modified traditional and the dramatically new methods, forms and ways of achieving political goals, including the foreign policy ones. The achieving of such goals, including changing of the legitimate governments, and even political, economic and spiritual conquering of peoples and countries has become even without the use of military force, at least up to a certain point in time Danyk et al., 2018).
The main aspects of taking external control over the state through the use of a wide range of innovative technologies were described in 1989 in the article «The changing face war: into the fourth generation» (Lind et al., 1989). The key in the wars of the fourth generation in the views of the authors of the article is the war of cultures, its initiation, support and nourishment from the outside and the organization within the state the psychological and informational pressure on its people and leadership, taking the external control and management, creating the conditions for increasing the socio-economic Already at the present stage, more and more conflicts fit the definition of «hybrid», in which military action is combined with others, mainly political, economic, diplomatic, information, psychological, cybernetic and cognitive. By acting in an integrated manner, they lead to the systematic destabilization in all spheres of the functioning of the target state. In such conditions any large-scale social processes, including migration, can be used to destabilize the socio-political situation in the target country or region, to turn the life of the country into the chaos, to weaken the country, etc.
Taking into consideration that migration, under the certain conditions, has both positive and negative effects on the country of origin and destination of migrants  as well as the existence of the above-mentioned modern approaches to the achieving of the political goals, a certain actor that is interested in the strengthening of one country or region or weakening of the others can purposefully direct the migration processes, determining the time and place of the migration flows formation, the qualitative composition of migrants, the region of destination, etc.
The migration is distinguished in the reference literature by the flow direction (external and internal), by duration (short-term, seasonal, long-term), by forms of its organization (organized and disorganized, voluntary and forced, lawful and unlawful, etc. At the same time in view of the material presented in the article, we consider it necessary also to distinguish between forms of organization of migration, distinguishing between the directed migration and the spontaneous one. As opposed to the spontaneous the directed migration is the movement of people not because of the objective circumstances, but due to the expectations imposed and purposefully formed by the actor using the manipulative influence, agitation, etc. Besides, the dichotomy Spontaneous -Directed has a semantic content different from Voluntary and Forced, because the latter indicates that a person makes a decision to migrate taking into account the expected benefits and prospects or in a view of the difficult and threatening situation in the country of residence that forces person to leave.
The directability of migration, in particular in the form of manipulative influence on consciousness, agitation, etc. can occur at all the stages. For example at an early stage the motivation for migration can be artificially formed. People are encouraged to migrate because of the benefits they are expected to gain in the new place of living, that's why at this stage the TV programs, the posts in the social networks with the stories of success and the photos of the "good life" of those who has already emigrated can persuade the hesitating ones and to make people think about the emigration if they didn't use to.
In order to initiate or stimulate the migration from a particular country or region the political actor can create conditions that will encourage or force people to leave their place of residence. We can even assume that a hybrid conflict can be deliberately started with the far-reaching goal of generating a flow of migrants to destabilize the situation in another region. Actors may resort to this when other means of initiating migration flows seem to be insufficient. In addition, migration flows from regions or countries that are affected by hybrid conflict have their own characteristics that may be useful for the migration conflictogenity.
Eventually, due to the targeted information policy, the migrant flows can be directed to a specific region or country. This can be done through the immigrant networks and through migrants' support organizations as well as with the aid of media, social networks, etc. According to the above-mentioned D. Massey's theory of aggregate causation, every act of migration changes the social context that facilitates subsequent migration that is it can be assumed that migration will not need external influence over time, since the processes of the migration self-reproduction will start.
During the migrants stay in the country of destination, the external manipulative influence on them can be exercised in order to create the hotbeds of tension in the country. Alternatively, the tension can arise due to the transformation of horizontal inequality in the country or region. As it was already mentioned, the transformation of horizontal inequality occurs because migrants get into the new socio-economic environment when their social, financial and economic status eventually becomes higher than that of the host community, or vice versa. In any case, this is accompanied by the resentment on the part of the migrants themselves or the locals, the emergence of social and political contradictions, which in turn can be used to destabilize the region or country from within.
Sustainable development of a country depends on the stability of all its spheres of life, but in our opinion it is the socio-economic, political and cultural-ideological spheres that can be most affected by the negative effects of migration. At the same time, these spheres are crucial for the existence and development of the state and the destabilization of any of them can lead to the destabilization of the country as a whole.
It should be emphasized that migration alone does not necessarily lead to the destabilization of the migration-affected countries because it comes under the regulatory and self-regulatory mechanisms. However, in the case of the directed migration the actor can also create the conditions for the negative consequences of migration. Moreover, these negative consequences can be artificially amplified. It is also important that the actor can direct and manage migration with the aid of the information technologies and the technologies of the influence on the population without revealing itself or hiding their real intentions.

Substantiation of the possibility of the external directing of the migratory processes
For the certain destabilizing processes to be chosen and successfully used, they have to meet at least the following criteria. First of all they must be able to change its numeric and qualitative characteristics because of the external influence or to be directable; Secondly, it is important for the actor to direct and control the migration processes invisibly, for example hiding the real objective or posing them as the spontaneous ones. Thirdly, these use must be effective, it means that the necessary result must be achieved.
On the understanding that in the context of the hybrid war the aggressor country is interested in the weakening of the target country, in its destabilization, so the feasibility of the use of migration processes is explained by the negative implications that are natural for the spontaneous migration, but they are not critical and don't lead to the destabilization of the country. At the same time in case there is the external influence can turn the migratory process into the destructive one .
The migratory processes that are caused by the hybrid conflict and are able to form the hotbeds of tension in the regions the migratory flows are directed to. The deterioration of the socio-economic situation and the lack of opportunities, the increased risks to the vitally important interests of the people being enhanced by the intensive cognitive, informational and psychological impacts, by the different manipulative technologies have already led to the powerful migratory processes in the different regions of the world.
The migratory processes in the context of the hybrid warfare have their specific features that derive from the nature of the hybrid conflicts in the modern world: the complex of hybrid impacts initiates or intensifies the migratory flows even in the absence of the military actions; it is the proactive part of the population, mostly young and middle-aged that leave the conflict-affected area; the population moves to the economically attractive regions; people with the specific training experience and skills constitute the certain part of migrants.
The massive population movements from the conflict zone can create the conditions for both spontaneous and directed emergence of the socio-political tension in the new place of their living and respectively to the outbreak of the secondary waves of conflict. Anyway the contradictions and tensions, strengthened by the destabilizing propaganda can be used for certain foreign policy actors to achieve their The resentment that emerged both because of the objective circumstances and artificially created creates the preconditions and favorable environment for various mass riots, social disruptions, the divisions within the society and the political elite. Besides, even if these practices are externally influenced they can look like the spontaneous internal processes. That is the factor of the crucial importance because the use of the intergroup controversies gives the good reason to treat the conflict as the civil one, despite the foreign interference. So in the context of the hybrid warfare the migration and, as a consequence, the transformation of the intergroup inequality create the preconditions for the conflict relocation or its projection to the place determined in advance in order to affect the new regions and new parts of the population with the conflict .
Taking the above-mentioned into account it becomes necessary to develop and implement the concrete measures in order to identify and assess the destructive and conflictogenous qualities of migratory processes as well as to reveal the foreign influence on the certain migratory process.
The availability of the well-developed mechanisms of system analysis of these processes makes it possible to predict the likely centers of the emergence of stress and unrest, reduce their negative consequences and even prevent them from occurring through the development and implementation of a set of measures aimed at preventing the excessive level of intergroup inequality between displaced persons and the host community and conducting competent and well-informed information policy.
In order to foresee the possible destructive consequences of the migration we have proposed the system of indicators for the conducting of the differentiated assessment of the destructive impact of the migratory processes. Among other things we have developed the set of the indicators for the determination of the social tension level resulted from the transformation of the socioeconomic inequality in the regions where the essential number of migrants come. It is proposed inert alia to undertake a comparative analysis of the average level of the economic growth of migrants and locals. For this task to be completed we need to use the indicators that can be quantified, for instance the percentage of both migrants and locals in the whole number of people living in the country, the average levels of education, the unemployment levels, the levels of income, the average age, etc. At the same time the indicators as the object for the analysis can be also used. Among them are: the history of the bilateral relations between the country of origin and the host country, the existence of the contradictions, conflicts, in particular if there is the hybrid conflict between states that could also cause or influence the people's displacement. Table 1.

The indicators of the formation of the horizontal socio-economic inequality between migrants and locals in the host country
1 Relationship between the migrants' and locals' shares in the whole population 2 Average age of migrants / Average age of locals 3 Average level of migrants' education/ Average level of locals' education 4 Migrants' employment level / Locals' employment level 5 Average level of migrants' income / Average level of local's income 6 Membership of migrants and locals in the same / different ethnic groups, confessions, ethnic groups 7 Existing of influential diaspora, the history of migration between історія the studied countries Table 2.

Some indicators that show the obtaining by migration the conflict potential in the host country 1
Level of horizontal socio-economic inequality between migrants and locals 2 The percentage of men aged from 15 to 29 3 Social background of migrants 4 Наявність у мігрантів специфічної мілітарної підготовки та/або військовооблікової спеціальності 5 Migrants' experience as the combatants in the armed conflict 6 Migrants' experience as the combatants in the armed conflict (in the unlawful formations) 7 Type of the territorial distribution of migrants (mainly even or concentrated in certain areas) 8 Urbanization level 9 History of bilateral relations between the country of origin and the host country (contradictions, conflicts, etc) 10 Migrants' access to the social welfare system 11 Existence of crises in the country / region 12 Existence and type of the armed conflict 13 Existence and type of the armed conflict in the neighbor country Besides the set of indicators in order to identify the probability of the external control of the migratory processes or at least the interest of the certain actor in the formation of the migrants' flows and their directing to the target country has been developed. Taking into account the mechanisms of the self-regulation of migration, the signs the horizontal inequality level increasing and the signs of the obtaining the conflictogenity by the migration will not necessarily lead to the destabilization of the country. At the same time the participation of the actor that is interested in the destabilization of the certain country or just in the realization of its own interests at expense of migration can become the key factor of turning the migration into the destructive process. Given that the following indicators to be qualitatively analyzed have been identified: the operation of the organizations and agencies that support migration, the articles and TV programs about the advantages of living in certain countries, etc. At the same time we must take into account that it is not always evident which country is more interested in the migrationthe country of the migrants' origin or the host country. Moreover, the ultimate beneficiary of the migration can the third party, that is interested in the strengthening or the weakening of the certain countries, depending on its own interest in the particular region. Table 3.

The ways to identify the external influence on the migration processes
Content-analysis of the publications and mass media stories, social networks posts with a view to stimulate migration, including ones about the high standards of living in the certain country, the relative ease for the potential migrants to be employed, to find accommodation, etc. Analysis of the migratory policy of the both country of origin and the host country, for example the free tertiary education programs for migrants, migrants access to the labour market, the visa-free regime establishment, etc. Analysis the domestic policy measures that are not geared towards the migration, but have the indirect influence, for example leaving some industries without governmental support, reducing the scale of the social protection of population, etc. Analysis of the activity of the organizations and agencies, especially non-profit ones, that give support to the people willing to migrate Content-analysis of the political leaders' speeches, programme papers and policy notes of the political parties, slogans, etc. on the migrants-related topics. Statistics of the peaceful and violent protests regarding migration and migrants Migrants participation in the political protests Statistics of the crime against migrants and crimes committed by migrants Statistics of the acts of xenophobia and intolerance When designing measures to prevent and counteract the destructive impact of migration, it is necessary to take into account the fact that the ability of democratic countries to regulate migration processes is limited, since the right to choose the residence freely is an inalienable human right. Moreover, migration is a process that is the self-regulating one. But in case of external control of the migration processes, which is carried out in order to use them for destructive purpose, the state can and should implement at least the counter measures of information policy, in particular, refute information about the advantages of living in a particular locality, ease of employment, etc. and, most importantly, in order to prevent social protests, guard against any negative or negative attitude towards migrants or migrants.
The interest of political actors in the use of migration processes as a means of policy in the international relations in modern geopolitical conditions is explained by the fact that migration can either contribute to or hinder the development of the country under certain conditions. Migration's ability to acquire conflict potential explains the feasibility of using it, inter alia to politically destabilize the country or region, to create the hotbeds of tension and even to wage the armed conflicts.
The development of modern mass media and means of communication creates conditions for directing the migration flows, in particular by influencing the quantitative and qualitative composition of migrants, their choice of destination, as well as the peculiarities of their behavior at the new place of residence. In particular, the technologies of the collective conciousness manipulation using the mass media and the modern means of communication are able to significantly exacerbate the public resentment arising from the transformation of horizontal inequality. The ntergroup horizontal inequality is transformed because migrants get into the new socioeconomic conditions.
The threat of use the migration processes in order to adversely affect the country or region requires their constant monitoring. Determining the indicators of obtaining the conflictogenity by migration and monitoring the change of their values, as well as exploring the possibility of the externally directed migration in order to use it with the hybrid destructive goal will allow to foresee and prevent the achievement the level of conflictogenity that threatens national security.