DIRECTED MIGRATION AS THE MEANS TO ACHIEVE THE HYBRID WAR GOALS

The need to study the contemporary migration processes inter alia taking into account the feasibility of using them as the means of the domestic and foreign policy, for example to achieve the goals of the hybrid war was substantiated. On the one hand it can be explained by the changing approaches to the realization of political interests, particularly to the waging of war; on the other hand – by the peculiarities of the contemporary migration processes. It was shown that for the migration processes to be used they have to be eligible to external influence, besides they can be influenced in a hidden way or their use can be explained by the acceptable purposes. They must also be effective enough that means their use can help actor to achieve its political goal. The concept of the directed migration was introduced and the ways the directing of migration processes can be executed at the different stages of the migration process were shown as well as the role of the informatization and mass communication. Particularly, the assumption was made that the hybrid conflict in a particular region can be waged just to initiate and stimulate migration in order to destabilize the situation in the region where the migration flows are directed to. Possibilities of using directed migration by a political actor to destabilize the political, socio-economic and ideological spheres of the target country or region from within were also analyzed. Given that, both the country of origin and the host country can be regarded as the target one. The increasing of conflictogenity of the society due to the horizontal inequality transformation between migrants and host community was presented as an example.

Ключові слова: керована міграція, гібридна війна, маніпулятивний вплив, конфліктогенність, засоби масової комунікації. The application of the certain processes as the means that undermine the situation in the country from within, destabilize its political, socio-economic and cultural sphere is the important and sometimes the main part of the hybrid conflicts. For these processes to be used in the most successful way they need to comply with the following criteria. Firstly, they have to be swayed by the external influence and control, that means they have to be directed. Secondly, it is very important for the actor to control and influence these processes clandestinely, that means these processes have to look like the spontaneous ones. Thirdly, these processes have to be effective, their application must lead to the desired result.

Даник Юрий Григорьевич
To our mind the migration processes that are getting more large-scaled and are having an increasing impact on the international relations and international security can be used as the means of the hybrid warfare. However, the scholars have relatively recently started realizing the importance of migration processes. Before that the migration was treated as the internal affair of the state and the security was considered in rather narrow context. But eventually the so-called «soft» security risks such as criminal activity, environmental problems, drug trafficking and, actually, migration begun to be considered as the study matter. But in spite of the increasing topicality of the nexus between migration and security the studies mostly cover the issue of negative impact of migration on the security situation and vice versa (Reuveny 2007;Dancigier 2010;Humphrey 2013;Crawford and Campbell 2012;Gibney et al. 1996).
At the same time the scientists who deal with the issue are sometimes blamed for excessive securitization of the «soft» risks so that they are only presented as the security problems not being the ones. For example it can be done by the political leaders who are interested in strengthening the state policy in certain sphere, when making the society perceive it as the threat (Bigo 2002: 72). Sometimes actors, including the internal ones, can resort to them striving to divert attention of people from the actual problems or failures of authorities, to present themselves as the advocates of the needs of citizens, etc. (Malinovska 2015: 63). From time to time we have on the political leaders use migration issue in order to influence the voters, to exert influence over the other states, etc.
However, there were many cases so far when the migration resulted in the escalation of the existing conflict or the emergence of the new one. As one of the most striking and well-known example we can present the Great Lakes region in Africa, where the movement of Hutu and Tutsi over the frontier because of the internal conflict in Rwanda (and Burundi) caused the series of conflicts in Congo (Zaire) and, after Hutu and Tutsi returned, -the repeated emergence and intensification of conflict in Rwanda. The majority of refugees move within their own countries or to other ones that are fragile too. However, even in relatively stable countries refugees and migrants are able to create the situations that are threatening to the social and political stability. Based on the quantitative research the conclusion was made that after the conflict brakes out the possibility of emergence the new one in countries that are closest to the conflict-affected zone is three times higher than in the countries that are far enough from the primary conflict zone (Chauvet and Collier 2005). On the other hand there is another example of the awareness of the security dependence from the migration -the policy of Israel. It encourages immigration considering it as the security factor of the state while facing the constant confrontation with the Arab World (Malinovska 2015: 88).
Besides, at the current stage more and more conflicts are considered as the hybrid ones, when military actions are combined with others -mostly political, economical, diplomatic, informational, psychological, cybernetic, cognitive and other actions. When acting in complex, they lead to the systemic destabilization in all spheres of functioning of the target state. In such conditions any largescale social processes including the migration can be used in order to unravel the social and political situation in the target country or region.
Given that the significant number of scientific works are devoted to migration, its positive and negative consequences (Crawford and Campbell 2012; Gibney et al. 1996;Poznjak and Libanova 2010), as well as to the hybrid warfare (Hoffman 2007;Hoffman 2009;Murray and Mansoor 2012;Mattis 2005; McCuen 2008) we did not manage to find any scientific paper where the issue of the targeted use of migration as the means to achieve the goals in the hybrid conflict was investigated. That's why we think that due to the increased actuality it is not only the consequences of the migration but the possibility to direct it in order to use its consequences to achieve the political interests in the hybrid war context that should be thoroughly studied.
In view of the above-mentioned the objective of the article is to determine in what way the migration can be used by the political actors to achieve their goals in the hybrid war context, particularly to destabilize the target country from within. To achieve this objective we need to meet the following tasks: to substantiate the feasibility for the actors to direct the migration processes in order to realize their political interests in the context of the hybrid warfare; to define the directed migration, to find out in what way the migration can be directed; to work out in what way the spheres of the state functioning can be destabilized using the directed migration We cannot study the trends of the migration processes and their role without the simultaneous study of the contemporary political situation in the world, current international relations and current international security situation.
These in turn are significantly influenced by the new phenomena in the philosophy of war, military strategy and the practice of war. For instance, it also refers to the new type of military conflict based on the innovative technologies, the modified or substantially new forms, methods and means to reach political, particularly foreign-policy goals.
In fact, the new development characterizes the international policy nowadays -the possibility to achieve political goals, to change the legitimate governments and to subjugate politically, economically and spiritually the states and the peoples even without the military force. That's why the special technologies of influencing the mass consciousness and the cyber wars technologies are being actively developed (Danyk et al., 2006;Danyk and Pitchugin 2008).
Such perception of migration processes is made possible not only by changing approaches as for the setting of political and militarypolitical goals and as for the methods of their achievement, but also by other changes that are taking place in the world. In particular, it is the globalization and development of mass media. In the context of increasing globalization trends, the simplification of border crossing procedures, the establishment of visa-free regimes between countries, the reduction of transport costs, the intensive information impact contribute to the increasing the scale of the migration processes.
Due to the dissemination of information through television and the Internet about economic opportunities in other countries the potential migrants not only realize their predicament comparing to residents of more prosperous regions. They also realize that they can improve their situation due to their migration to these prosperous countries. Besides the development of the means of informatization and mass communication creates the new opportunities and as a whole makes it easier to disseminate certain messages and narratives, to influence the consciousness of people, and to impose them the views and ideas that are advantageous for the external actor.
Since it is recognized that in the context of the hybrid conflict the aggressor is interested in weakening the target state, its destabilization, so the feasibility of application the migration flows is explained by the negative implications, that are natural for the spontaneous migration, but not necessary critical and do not necessary lead to the destabilization of the state; but in case of the external influence on the migration process it can be turned into the fully destructive process. At the same time we have to point out that the target country itself, where the migration flows are directed, is limited in its possibilities to react on the situation in migration sphere because of the necessity to follow the principles of the human rights and its international commitments.
In the scientific literature, migration is classified by the direction of flows (external and internal), by duration (short-term, seasonal, long-term, irreversible, the commuting), by forms of organization (organized and unorganized, voluntary and forced, legal and illegal), etc. But in view of the material presented in the article, we consider it necessary to distinguish between directed and spontaneous migration as the forms of organization of migration. Unlike spontaneous the directed migration is the movement of people not because of objective circumstances, but because of the imposed and purposefully formed people's expectations through the means of manipulative influence, agitation, etc. Moreover, the dichotomy Spontaneous -Directed has a semantic content different from Voluntary -Forced, because the latter indicates that a person makes a decision about moving, focusing on those benefits and prospects that are waiting for him in a new place or because of the difficult situation in which the person lives and that makes him to leave the place of permanent residence.
It should be noted that external influence on the migration, actually the directing, in particular in the form of manipulative influences on consciousness, agitation, etc. can occur at all stages of migration. For example, at the initial stage of the formation of a motivation for migration, when migrants decide to leave their country of residence. People are encouraged to move by the expected benefits, so at this stage the influence on consciousness can be very effective. For example, the TV programs, the posts in the social networks with the photos of the good life of those who have already migrated abroad can either encourage to migrate the people, who hesitate to go or make people think about leaving the country if they didn't use to think previously about it.
In order to initiate and stimulate the migration from the certain region or the country the special conditions can be made to force or to encourage people to leave the place of permanent residence. We can even assume that the hybrid conflict in one region or country can be deliberately waged to initiate migration flows with the aim to destabilize the situation in another country or region. Actors can do that in case the other methods were not effective enough. Another reason is connected with the peculiarities of the migration from the regions, affected by the hybrid conflict. Such peculiarities can contribute to the formation of the conflict potential in the country or region where the migration flows are directed to (Danyk and Semenkova 2019).
Then due to the deliberate informational policy the flows of migrants can be directed to the certain country or region. It can be achieved through the emigrants' networks, through the organizations that assist migrants, through the mass media, social networks, etc. According to the theory of cumulative causation by D. Massey each act of migration changes the social context that in its turn promotes the further migrations (Massey 1990), so it is possible to assume that eventually the migration will not require the external influence to be continued because of the processes of sustainable self-development and self-reproduction of migration.
During the migrants stay in the new country they also can be influenced externally. The objective of such influence is to create the centers of the social tension. For example, the tension can result from the transformation of horizontal inequality in the country or region. The horizontal inequality transforms because of the new social and economic conditions the migrants get to. Eventually, their social status as well as the economic one becomes higher than the status of locals or vice versa their status in general becomes worse. In any case the horizontal inequality transformation is accompanied by the resentment and frustration among migrants or among locals, the emergence of contradictions.
To our opinion, the directing of the migration in the context of the hybrid warfare also lies in the creation of protest or conflict potential based on the contradictions that emerge between migrants and host community. But it is not always necessary for the intergroup contradictions to arise from the socio-economic differences that really exist. Very often they are formed due to the interpretations of socio-economic inequality in the consciousness of people. In the context of the hybrid conflicts it is often supposed to be done deliberately. The tension is artificially produced for instance due to the distorted perception of the existing state of affairs, when the achievements of people of certain social groups are perceived as the undeserved ones. The use of special technologies provides the opportunity to create and artificially untangle the chaos situation. At the beginning it can result in the peaceful protest actions and then turn them into a means to achieve the specific goal. In a context of the hybrid war, it can become a significant destabilizing factor (Rushchenko 2015: 13).
The quite important aspect is that actors while using information technologies and the technologies of influence on the mass consciousness to direct migration can hide their real interests behind the commendable goals or hide their involvement at all.
The sustainable development of the country depends on the stability of all the spheres of its functioning, but to our mind the political, socio-economic and cultural sphere can be affected by the negative consequences of migration in the most significant way. At the same time these spheres are the key ones for the development of the state and the destabilization of any of them can lead to the destabilization of the country as the whole.
The examples of using migration deliberately by political actors in order to achieve their goals in the hybrid war context are given in the table. It should be emphasized again that the migration itself does not lead to the following consequences, because it falls within the scope of the regulation and selfregulation mechanisms. However, in the hybrid war context the conditions for the migration to result in the following negative consequences are created. Moreover these consequences are artificially reinforced. Table 1. The application of the directed migration in order to destabilize the spheres of functioning of the state Sphere of state functioning Task, the aggressor is supposed to met using the directed migration In the country where migration is directed from

In the country where migration is directed to Political
The transformation of the ethnodemographic structure of population for creating the prerequisites for the political destabilization of the state; The reducing the proportion of the certain group in the population of the country in order to influence the electoral behavior of people; The reducing the number of people, that can be called up in order to decrease the defense capabilities of the state.
The increasing of the proportion of certain cultural group in the population of the country for creating the prerequisites for separatist ambitions in a specific region of the country; The transformation of the ethnodemographic structure for the further political destabilization in the country; The formation of the ceratin quantity of migrants -the representatives of specific country in order to influence on the policy of the host state.

Socioeconomic
The reducing of the economic growth rate due to the massive exodus of The increasing of social expenditures of the host country, the diversion of As the table shows, the directed migration can be applied either for the country of origin or the country they are directed to. In some cases the particular migration flow can lead to the same consequences for both country of origin and the host country. We can provide as an example the transformation of the ethnodemographic structure of the population that is resulted from the both mass exodus and mass arrival of the representatives of a particular cultural group. However, the migration of the qualified and skilled persons has the negative effect on the country of their origin and positive effect on the host country. For example, the aspiration of the western countries to encourage well-educated and skilled migrants to immigrate threatens the development of the less developed countries. Besides given that all the spheres of the state functioning are interconnected, the destabilization of one of them can cause the destabilization of the others. For instance, when the large quantity of students leaves the country it negatively influences the science and education system. In its turn it has the negative impact on the economy of the country and then on the defense capabilities on the state. Therefore, if the countries encourage migration in order to use its positive consequences to solve their domestic problems so in the same way its negative consequences can be used by the external actors to create or to exacerbate the domestic problems of the target country. But in the hybrid war context the political actors aiming to use the migration's capacity to weaken the adversary have to exercise the directing of migration at any stage. Taking into account the tasks as for the destabilization of the country using the directed migration, that we have defined in the article, it is reasonable for the political actors to resort to it in the hybrid war context. Accordingly, such possibility must be taken into account while analyzing the current political and security situation as well as while predicting the possible course of events. proactive and educated working-age people; The deterioration of the state of science and technology in the country as a whole because of the significant number of students that go to study abroad; The decrease in the money supply that is resulted from the large-scale emigration of the rich citizens. resources from the economy because of the arrival of the significant number of migrants for the relatively short period of time; The increasing of the regional disparities of the country because of settling the migrants in mostly economically attractive regions; The transformation of the horizontal inequality leads to the growing social contradictions.

Cultural and ideological
The threat of losing the cultural distinctiveness by the country or region.
The emergence and exacerbation of cultural contradictions due to the arrival of migrants -the representatives of another religious or ethnic group.