Observed changes in monthly maximum and minimum temperatures in the Nakhchivan Autonomic Republic (Azerbaijan) between 1961 and 2023
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26565/2410-7360-2026-64-19Keywords:
Nakhchivan AR of Azerbaijan, climate change, maximum and minimum temperature anomalies, linear trend, temperature gradation, different climatic periods, frequency of high-temperature classes, asymmetric warming of maximum and minimum temperaturesAbstract
Problem Statement. This study analyzes long-term spatiotemporal trends in monthly maximum and minimum air temperatures in the Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic for the period 1961–2023, using data from five meteorological stations to assess regional climate change.
Purpose. The study aims to develop and refine research methods for detecting climateinduced changes, with a particular focus on maximum and minimum air temperatures. Specifically, it seeks to establish robust statistical and spectral techniques that can identify temporal trends, diurnal variations, and extreme temperature events. By integrating observed temperature records with optimized analytical tools, the study intends to enhance the accuracy and reliability of regional climate assessments.
Methods. The study employed a combination of linear trend analysis, Pearson correlation, and anomaly-based methods to assess long-term variations in maximum and minimum air temperatures. Temperature anomalies were referenced to the 1961–1990 WMO climatological normal, and warming/cooling rates (°C/decade) quantified temporal trends. The use of non-parametric methods, moving time windows, and recurrence frequency analysis across temperature gradations enabled robust detection of long-term changes, recent shifts, and asymmetries in temperature distributions.
Results. For the period 1961–2023, a steady and widespread increase in maximum temperature has been established across all months and at all stations. The most intense warming is observed in winter, particularly in February (up to 1.180C/decade), in spring – March (up to 0.780C/decade), in summer – June to August (up to 1.50–2.090C/decade), and in autumn – September to October. The most statistically significant Tmax trends are characteristic of spring (up to 93% of cases) and summer (up to 87%), indicating the greatest stability of warming during the warm season. An analysis of different climatic periods reveals an intensification of warming rates in maximum temperature over time, especially after the 1980s and most prominently during 1991–2023. Minimum temperature demonstrates a more complex and heterogeneous behavior, including steady warming in winter, mixed trends in spring, localized cooling in summer (July), and pronounced spatial contrasts in autumn. Frequency analysis of temperatures indicates an expansion of the Tmax range from −90C to 420C, an increase in the recurrence of high temperatures (30–360C), and a rare but persistent occurrence of extremely high values (up to 420C). The comparison of Tmax and Tmin confirms that contemporary warming is asymmetric, with a dominant increase in daytime temperatures. Spatial differences are determined by topography. Overall, it has been established that the region’s climate is characterized by increasing temperature extremity, a rising frequency of high-temperature classes, and enhanced interseasonal and inter-station contrasts.
Conclusions. Seasonal variations in temperature changes are particularly important in this region, where agriculture and the transportation sector hold substantial economic significance. Rapid increases in maximum temperatures during spring and summer could adversely affect various economic sectors in the coming decades. Such studies are essential for understanding climate change and play a crucial role in monitoring and analyzing climate trends to support policymakers in mitigation and adaptation strategies.
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