The impact of natural and anthropogenic risks on population safety and agriculture development in the Gazakh-Tovuz economic region
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.26565/2410-7360-2026-64-09Keywords:
agriculture, risk assessment, population safety, economic and geographical assessment, continuous development, Gazakh-Tovuz economic regionAbstract
The natural-geographical conditions of the Gazakh–Tovuz economic region determine the spatial interdependence between population safety and agricultural development. However, global climate change, land degradation, increasing environmental pressure, and the expansion of human activity have significantly increased vulnerability to natural and anthropogenic risks. At the same time, agriculture remains a key sector of the regional economy, playing an important role in employment. Uneven spatial development, declining land productivity in some areas, and increasing exposure to natural hazards hinder the efficient use of resources. This situation highlights the need for a comprehensive assessment of risk factors influencing both agriculture and settlement structure. Therefore, identifying the current problems and ensuring sustainable territorial development under changing environmental conditions is of high scientific and practical importance for the region.
Aim of the study. To study the spatial analysis of the Gazakh–Tovuz economic region and the role of natural-anthropogenic risks in the territorial organization of agriculture and the safe settlement of the population. To determine the level of disaster risk in the development of agricultural sectors. This makes it possible to assess the impact of natural and anthropogenic risks on both population safety and the sustainable development of agricultural areas in zones highly sensitive to destructive processes within the study area.
Research methodology. This study applies a quantitative approach to analyze the impact of natural and anthropogenic risks on population settlement and agricultural development. The assessment is based on an integrated index system that considers the intensity and frequency of events, the level of exposure, and the vulnerability of agricultural systems. In addition, the Analytic Hierarchy Process is used to rank different types of risks through a weighted multi-criteria evaluation. The results support the identification of vulnerable areas and the development of spatial risk maps for the region.
Results. The spatial analysis indicates that natural and anthropogenic risks in the Gazakh–Tovuz economic region are unevenly distributed and significantly influence both population settlement patterns and agricultural development. The southern and western parts of the region are identified as the most vulnerable zones, particularly where agricultural activity is more intensive and settlements are more exposed. Based on a four-level classification, approximately 0–5% of the territory is classified as very weak risk, 10–20% as weak, 20–33% as medium, and 33–50% as strong risk. Weak-risk areas have limited impact on settlements and agriculture, while medium and strong-risk zones are associated with recurring damage to infrastructure, agricultural lands, and rural settlements, leading to socio-economic disruptions. Overall, a considerable part of the region is exposed to medium and high risk levels, which adversely affects the stability of settlement systems and the sustainable development of agriculture.
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